Left-of-center number cruncher Nate Silver thinks it’s not of the question.
Right now, The Real Clear Politics average now shows Republicans with a 2.3 point lead in the generic congressional ballot. Silver reminds us that
on average the generic ballot has overestimated the Democrats’ performance in the popular vote by 3.4 points since 1992. If the pattern holds, that means that a 2.3-point deficit in generic ballot polls would translate to a 5.7 point deficit in the popular vote — which works out to a loss of 51 seats, according to our regression model.
Only one pollster, who, in another, found the Democrats’ health care overhaul to be more popular than does the CBS News poll, has the GOP lead much higher:
Rasmussen has the Democrats losing the generic ballot by 9 points (and has had similar numbers for awhile). A 9-point loss in the House popular vote would translate into a projected 65-seat loss for Democrats. Or, if we adjust the Rasmussen poll to account for the fact that the Democrats’ performance in the popular vote tends to lag the generic ballot, it works out to a 12.4-point loss in the popular vote, which implies a loss of 79 seats!
Now, the only prediction I’ll make on the House right now is that Republicans will win at least the number of seats they need to regain the majority. We’d have to do a district-by-district analysis to see if such a stupendous wing is in the works, but even then, we may not be able to see trends emerging at the grassroots or really measure the intensity of opposition to big government simmering all across the country.