An 80-Seat GOP Pickup in the House?
Left-of-center number cruncher Nate Silver thinks it’s not of the question.
Right now, The Real Clear Politics average now shows Republicans with a 2.3 point lead in the generic congressional ballot. Silver reminds us that
on average the generic ballot has overestimated the Democrats’ performance in the popular vote by 3.4 points since 1992. If the pattern holds, that means that a 2.3-point deficit in generic ballot polls would translate to a 5.7 point deficit in the popular vote — which works out to a loss of 51 seats, according to our regression model.
Only one pollster, who, in another, found the Democrats’ health care overhaul to be more popular than does the CBS News poll, has the GOP lead much higher:
Rasmussen has the Democrats losing the generic ballot by 9 points (and has had similar numbers for awhile). A 9-point loss in the House popular vote would translate into a projected 65-seat loss for Democrats. Or, if we adjust the Rasmussen poll to account for the fact that the Democrats’ performance in the popular vote tends to lag the generic ballot, it works out to a 12.4-point loss in the popular vote, which implies a loss of 79 seats!
Now, the only prediction I’ll make on the House right now is that Republicans will win at least the number of seats they need to regain the majority. We’d have to do a district-by-district analysis to see if such a stupendous wing is in the works, but even then, we may not be able to see trends emerging at the grassroots or really measure the intensity of opposition to big government simmering all across the country.
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For me, the more important question is: Will they deserve it?
Sorry if I am a grouch this morning, but unless the Republicans are REALLY going to be serious about fiscal responsibility this time… the Republicans of 1994 who forced Clinton to be responsible, rather than the Republicans of 2000 who merrily expanded government with Bush… then they won’t deserve it. And in a way, I’d rather they didn’t get it. Because the Democrats should be the sole party of Big Government. If we are going to have Big Government aka statism aka fascism, I’d rather have it under the Democrats, so there is one clear target to shoot at (metaphorically).
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — April 10, 2010 @ 1:32 pm - April 10, 2010
It does look like it may be a complete rout in the House.
I’m trying to decide which Senate candidates to help out. Now that Spector is a sure gonner in PA, I wonder if sending money to the CA WI or WA Republican senate challengers is the right use of my money.
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — April 10, 2010 @ 1:56 pm - April 10, 2010
Where have all the liberals gone, long time passing?
Where have all the liberals gone, long time ago?
Into retirement everyone.
When will the ever learn, oh when will they ever learn.
I know that for the first time in our lives my partner and I are volunteering for a candidate. However, the chances of Ms. Pingree losing her seat in So. Maine is slim to none.
Comment by TnnsNE1 — April 10, 2010 @ 4:16 pm - April 10, 2010
I doubt it will be 80 seats, but the GOP does appear to have majority control within their grasp. Let’s hope they’ve learned enough since the last time to actually be fiscally responsible and tone down the social con bullshit.
Comment by John — April 10, 2010 @ 5:44 pm - April 10, 2010
An 80-seat pickup filled with Republicans–wow, there’s private fantasy. Especially if it’s Scott Brown’s pickup.
Comment by Ashpenaz — April 10, 2010 @ 6:30 pm - April 10, 2010
Isn’t it great that some liberal leftists are still mocking Browns huge win in the peoples republic of MA. hehe
Whistling past the grave yard…..
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — April 10, 2010 @ 6:54 pm - April 10, 2010
The bungling Jimmy Carter gave us 8 years of Reagan, 4 Yrs of GHW Bush and 8 years of GW Bush.
Barack O has started off far worse than ole Jimmy.
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — April 10, 2010 @ 6:57 pm - April 10, 2010
It’s gonna be a LONG, LONG generation for the libs and BucktoothedBritchesScatter.
Comment by ThatGayConservative — April 10, 2010 @ 7:38 pm - April 10, 2010
To those that think that the Republicans won’t really deserve it if they succeed in getting back the house, I would remind them of this. No election is the be all and end all of things. Each election, each generation must act based on the facts on the ground in the days and weeks leading up to an election. You have history as a guide, but at the end of the day NO politician will hold true to their campaign promises unless the citizens stay informed and educated about what is and is not going on in congress. If the dems are spanked this fall as I believe they will be then it will be the republicans turn at bat. Like in war or a ballgame. There is always another year ahead, another battle to be waged, another hill to be taken. Thinking that just one election will turn the tide is myopic and self-defeating.
Given the anger and frustration you hear from just casual conversation these days I’ve been wondering for some time if the republican congressional leadership truly understands the wave they could ride this fall. Yes, dominoes will still fall by the wayside and some will be against the reps. But thinking that just 40 seats is enough is small ball. Time to think big. Can’t get to the mountaintop if you’re only thinking you can get up the first small hill. Think big. If there’s a small chance for 80 or 100, then go for it.
Comment by Delusional Bill — April 10, 2010 @ 8:29 pm - April 10, 2010
If this does happen hope the GOP doesn’t squander it by cowering to social issues.
Comment by Pamela — April 10, 2010 @ 10:53 pm - April 10, 2010
You should also check out http://www.fivethirtyeight.com ‘s analysis of the situation.
Although left wing, he uses very good stats to figure these sorts of things out. He’s a great read if you’re a stats nut.
Comment by Tim — April 11, 2010 @ 12:04 am - April 11, 2010
Pamela, ditto that.
Tim, this post is based on one at that very site.
Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — April 11, 2010 @ 1:22 am - April 11, 2010
[...] at Gay Patriot. I made a prediction last year that we’d win 25-30 seats and I’ll stick with that [...]
Pingback by Some House Predictions Based on Recent Polling » Blogs For Victory — April 11, 2010 @ 7:35 am - April 11, 2010
“Isn’t it great that some liberal leftists are still mocking Browns huge win in the peoples republic of MA. hehe
Whistling past the grave yard…..”
Indeed, Gene. Your point is spot on.
We have one or two Democrats positioning themselves more to the right since it looks like they’ll be challenging him in the next election. I’m hoping most will see through it and not be taken in.
Comment by Bobbie — April 11, 2010 @ 9:00 am - April 11, 2010
Social issues are not driving any part of the return to American principles of government and free market economy.
Paut Ryan will chair the budget committee and have powerful sway on the Ways and Means Committee. That alone is a major victory.
The Democrats have flaunted their arrogance and condescension in ways that no Republican can forget or try to smooth over. The American people are on to how the Obama regime has been operating and no Republican milquetoast is going be comfortable as a “go along to get along” Representative.
Comment by heliotrope — April 11, 2010 @ 9:06 am - April 11, 2010
Somewhere, in many a mothers’ basement across the Northeast and San Francisco, a lot of liberal trolls’ heads exploded at this blog post.
Comment by Bruce (GayPatriot) — April 11, 2010 @ 11:49 am - April 11, 2010
“16.Somewhere, in many a mothers’ basement across the Northeast and San Francisco, a lot of liberal trolls’ heads exploded at this blog post”
Why?
Its a tough environment for incumbent. Since Dem has won virtually ever election for the past few cycles, there are lots of Dem incumbents.
We’ll see. As I have said all along if the economy continues to improve, and job growh kick starts occurs, you guys are toast.
If not, it will be close.
Comment by gillie — April 11, 2010 @ 12:36 pm - April 11, 2010
Funny, I don’t see many “incumbent ” Republicans cowering and afraid of the next election. As usual liberals and their trolls in the MSM are trying to spin the problem they have. The governors races are going to more of a rout than the races in the House. It is going to be a record shattering election. Obama is going to come close to putting the Democrats in the catagory of the Whigs. Thank you Mr President. hehe
The only place liberal Dems are in decent shape is NY. And that is only because the Republican Party quit the state a while ago. Even in CA and WA Republicans may win MA type upsets.
God Bless America. She will right herself once again.
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — April 11, 2010 @ 2:43 pm - April 11, 2010
How long do you have to keep saying it before it becomes true? You know damn well that Il Douche has no vested interest in either of those things happening and will do his damndest to prevent it. Why keep shoveling the bullshit pipe dream?
Comment by ThatGayConservative — April 12, 2010 @ 7:34 am - April 12, 2010
I love it that he seriously thinks there is a chance for “job growth to kick in”.
There is only one kind of job where growth might kick in. And it has already kicked in. That is: Government jobs.
We are having a bubble in… government. And it’s choking off the private sector. There will be minimal private-sector job growth… precisely and directly because there is so much government job growth. But, the lefties will add it up and declare “growth”, even as the American living standard crashes through the floor.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — April 12, 2010 @ 11:28 am - April 12, 2010
P.S. And to the extent they do succeed in creating some degree of Potemkin growth, temporarily? Then the populist wave in favor of the Republicans will only take a bit longer to build. The GOP will only gain 40 seats in 2010, instead of 80.
Frankly, I’d be happy with that outcome – see my comment #1. Plus my stock portfolio which I need not to crash for a few months longer yet – my preparations for the Big Crash are coming along but not quite done.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — April 12, 2010 @ 11:32 am - April 12, 2010