Gay marriage fails to get on California ballot for 2010

9 Comments

1. This will ultimately work out to be good news for the pro-gay-marriage movement.

   First, if you look at the long-term trend, it’s not good for the anti-gay marriage side. In 1998, Hawaii’s anti-marriage prop won by a blistering 40 points. In 2000, CA’s anti-marriage prop won by a solid 18 points. But in 2008, CA’s anti-marriage prop won by a feeble 4, yes four points. And that was only because certain groups like African Americans and perhaps Latinos turned out so heavily for Obama. Among CA Asians and whites, gay marraige *won* (or Prop 8 was defeated) by about four points. That’s a real shift from 1998/2000. I would also cite all those polls showing that younger people tend to be more pro-gay-marriage – and don’t budge from that position, as they get older. (Whereas they do change on taxes, say.)

   So that’s the long-term trend. BUT… the thing about long-term trends is, they only manifest in the long run. It takes 20 or 40 years. So, while the trend points to the pro-gay-marriage side eventually winning in CA, “now is too soon” – the long run has not arrived yet. Getting on the ballot again as quickly as 2010, and probably suffering another four-point defeat like 2008, would be dumb. They should wait until 2016 or no earlier than 2012.

   Comment by ILoveCapitalism — April 12, 2010 @ 6:49 pm - April 12, 2010

2. I heard on the CA radio station that I listen to about a recent poll saying for the first time, most people in CA are pro-gay marriage.

   Comment by Bobbie — April 12, 2010 @ 7:07 pm - April 12, 2010

3. ILC –

   I completely agree. My expanded (and long-held) opinion is that “Gay Marriage” (as it were) should be back-benched in favor of the long-term view.

   Why there was even an exploration and effort at a 2010 ballot initiative is beyond sanity.

   Comment by Bruce (GayPatriot) — April 12, 2010 @ 8:13 pm - April 12, 2010

4. Ok, so that is who I brushed off in front of Trader Joes. Someone trying to get me to sign onto the petition to repeal prop 8.
   My standard answers to all these people is: I don’t sign political petitions in front of grocery stores. It may be completely the opposite of what you are saying. If it’s important enough for me, I’ll find out about it, being a political wonk.

   Comment by Leah — April 12, 2010 @ 8:19 pm - April 12, 2010

5. I see that gays, even “conservative” ones, believe they’re exempt from the action taken by Scott Brown, which they applauded, namely, except the results of the gay marriage vote as settled law and move on. No, gays are determined to treat gay marriage the same way Nancy Pelosi and gang treated health care “reform”: they’re going to force it on the American people even when we say we don’t want it. AND they’re going to keep indoctrinating the nation’s kids in a pro-gay sexual ethic, brainwashing them to believe that opposing gay marriage is hate, in order to ensure no future opposition to achieving their dream, the golden ticket of an official, nationwide stamp of approval on their libido. Here comes Brave New World.

   Comment by Seane-Anna — April 12, 2010 @ 9:04 pm - April 12, 2010

6. Only one group was pushing for the 2010 repeal, most groups were focused on 2012. I don’t think its a big set back or anything, probably better than an 2010 election were we lose again…

   Comment by Darkeyedresolve — April 12, 2010 @ 10:43 pm - April 12, 2010

7. In 2006, a constitutional amendment to ban all legal recognition of same sex unions in any form for any reason lost in Arizona. Two years later, amendment supporters revised their amendment to only ban recognition of same sex marriages, and won. If amendment supporters can try again after they lose, why can’t those who support gay marriage? Given the prevailing political winds and likely results in November’s elections, I think its a good thing marriage equality won’t be on the ballot in California this year. Many California gays won’t like this, but waiting until 2016 or so (especially since gay couples in the state have all the state-level rights and responsibilities of marriage through domestic partnership, something gay couples in most of the country don’t), seems like the right play. I hope California activists will continue to build a grass-roots case for approval of gay marriage at the ballot box, which may actually be possible within a decade in California, unlike in most of the country.

   Comment by David — April 12, 2010 @ 10:43 pm - April 12, 2010

8. Seane-Anna,
   The day (maybe in 2012?) when Gay ‘liberals’ and Gay ‘conservatives’ come together as one group and lead the way for same-sex marriage is the day when you need to think twice before banning gay marriage under the Constitution. Happiness and liberty shall trump such unlawful ignorance as promised to Americans by the U.S. Constitution. Let us Gay liberals and Gay conservatives and those in between protect and uphold the U.S. Constitution for ALL of us Americans, God bless!

   Comment by Totakikay — April 13, 2010 @ 1:08 am - April 13, 2010

9. 5.I see that gays, even “conservative” ones, believe they’re exempt from the action taken by Scott Brown, which they applauded, namely, except the results of the gay marriage vote as settled law and move on.

   Seane-Anna, maybe things work differently in the country (or universe) you live in, but in my country, we continue to try to make things right, or better. If any gay marriage vote is settled law, then why worry every time it comes to a vote? It will simply be defeated every time if you are right. I guess it sucks being on the losing side of a trend.

   I would like to think that those who oppose the health care law that recently passed (and I may be one of them), will not consider it settled law, and try to repeal it when they get the chance.

   Comment by Pat — April 14, 2010 @ 6:54 am - April 14, 2010

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