In the latest the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate, my gal Carly Fiorina has pulled ahead of Tom Campbell, now edging him 25 to 23. Chuck DeVore lags in third place.
In the race, as in the gubernatorial contest, undecideds still remain high — with 36% of voters yet to make up their mind. That suggests the race could go either way. It would be interesting to see the make-up of those independents.
This poll is also the best news for Boxer in a long time. While she has moved up a bit in the polls and is ahead of all three of her potential GOP rivals, she remains below 50%.
After the butt-kicking the GOP got in PA_12, I think it’s pretty safe to write off Boxer’s seat.
And the fact that Richard Blumenthal is still up in the Connecticut polls even after it’s proven he lied about his Vietnam-Era Service tells me everything I need to know about the moral bankruptcy of the Democrat party.
I don’t think either seat is out of grabs but its going to take more work than RNC probably pictured. Unless we get into a double dip recession, the economic picture should steadily improve which will make it harder to take out the incumbent party. They have to make the race about Boxer and not about the Democratic Party or Obama, because he is rather popular in the state.
I think the Conn. race will take more shape after the Republican Primary…and whether we get Simmons or the Lady of the WWE. I personally hope its her, cause that is a fun story and its been a while since WWE has had a good storyline.
Pa 12 was all about voter turnout. The Dems showed up in greater numbers as a function of interest in the Specter-Sestak primary fight. Also, Burns was hampered by a lack of unity on the Republican side, with Murtha’s opponent from the 2008 race stupidly refusing to endorse Burns. Without those factors, Burns would have won. The turnout differential explains how two recent DEMOCRAT polls (PPP and Daily Kos) showed Burns as having a small lead, even though in the actual balloting Critz came out ahead. In any election other than Presidential, turnout is everything.
In California, Campbell and Fiorina may be ahead in the polls, but DeVore’s supporters are more dedicated. They may surprise you.