At 11:40 EST, 8:40 PST, I am calling this race for Carly Fiorina.
I base this call on the county returns. Carly is winning every county, though not all with over 50%. It seems she’s strong across all regions. Should this patten hold, she will win the Republican nomination with just over 50% of the vote which should give her a good head of steam going into the fall election.
UPDATE: With more returns in, Campbell leads in Santa Cruz County with just shy of 45% of the vote to 41% for Carly. (Campbell also leads in San Francisco, but with less than 50%.)
UP-UPDATE: Via FoxNews, AP now joins me in calling it for Carly. (9:08 PM EST).
UP-UP-UPDATE: Before I hike the Freedom Trail tomorrow, I hope to blog on the meaning of Carly’s victory. Some quick points. As Jim Geraghty reminds us, she’s has some pretty creative media, getting a lot of attention for web videos (at very little cost to the campaign). That blogger quips, “I think it’s safe to say you have no idea what Carly Fiorina and her creative director David Lynch are going to throw at you.”
Carly understands the importance of new media, having reached out to bloggers early in the campaign. I think that had a lot to do with her success.