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Democratic Poll Shows Obama Tied with Palin in 2012 Matchup

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 1:07 pm - July 15, 2010.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election,Sarah Palin

We all know how liberals love to loathe the immediate past Governor of the Last Frontier, who, based on the latest media reports, is best known as the future mother-in-law of Levi Johnston.

Well, Jim Geraghty alerts us to a new poll by the Democratic polling firm, Public Policy Polling (PPP), that shows Sarah Palin, despite approval ratings that are seriously underwater, tied with the incumbent Democrat:

With his approval numbers hitting new lows it’s no surprise that Barack Obama’s numbers in our monthly look ahead to the 2012 Presidential race are their worst ever this month. He trails Mitt Romney 46-43, Mike Huckabee 47-45, Newt Gingrich 46-45, and is even tied with Sarah Palin at 46. The only person tested he leads is Jan Brewer, who doesn’t have particularly high name recognition on the national level at this point.

It’s not that any of the Republican candidates are particularly well liked. Only Huckabee has positive favorability numbers at 37/28. Romney’s at 32/33, Gingrich at 32/42, Palin at 37/52, and Brewer at 17/20. But with a majority of Americans now disapproving of Obama it’s no surprise that a large chunk of them would replace him as President if they had that choice today.

Emphasis added.



  1. Ouch, that has got to hurt. I mean not even I think the lady (as nice a person as she no doubt is) is qualified for the office. Just goes to show that unless Obama can change the narrative after November, 2012 will be an “anyone but Obama” kind of year. Irony can be so ironic sometimes.

    Comment by Chris L. — July 15, 2010 @ 3:08 pm - July 15, 2010

  2. I think she is awesome but her negatives are so high i can never see her winning. However that being said, omg libs will die when they see this. Well actually their first response will be the poll is taken by a conservative and a lie, *rolls eyes* .

    Im in shock, thanks for sharing.

    Comment by Terry — July 15, 2010 @ 4:41 pm - July 15, 2010

  3. I mean not even I think the lady (as nice a person as she no doubt is) is qualified for the office

    As compared to the vast executive experience Obama had before being elected…

    Comment by Steve — July 15, 2010 @ 4:51 pm - July 15, 2010

  4. “change the narrative?”
    So he has two years to fake people out even more than he did when he campaigned. Because of the number of idiots graduating from public schools, it may be possible though.

    Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — July 15, 2010 @ 5:17 pm - July 15, 2010

  5. I want to see Republican debates with Palenty, Gingrich, Palin, Romney, Christie, Rubio, Barber….It will also help us choose a VP.

    Do you think Obama has agreed to have a co Presidency with Bill Clinton the next two years?

    Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — July 15, 2010 @ 5:19 pm - July 15, 2010

  6. It’s still early. I recall Clinton was far down in the polls at about this time in his first term. Although the Dems lost Congress, Clinton hung on and won his second term.
    I’m a bit uneasy because there doesn’t seem to be any Republican I could be excited about for the Republican candidate, except Chris Christie. Palin is an interesting spokesperson, but presidental???
    Anything can happen before 2012.

    Comment by Man — July 15, 2010 @ 5:50 pm - July 15, 2010

  7. Some of the worst Republican campaigns were when we ran old war vets who the party seemed to think had paid their dues. Bob Dole and John McCain. Very good men, but horrible Pres candidates. Especially against much younger men like Clinton and Obama.

    Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — July 15, 2010 @ 6:29 pm - July 15, 2010

  8. Huckabee has positive favorability numbers at 37/28. Romney’s [the next one] at 32/33

    Yech and yech! Why and why?

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — July 15, 2010 @ 6:37 pm - July 15, 2010

  9. (I mean, just on the economic issues: Huckabee means tax increases, and Romney prototyped Obamacare, more or less a disaster for the people of MA.)

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — July 15, 2010 @ 6:39 pm - July 15, 2010

  10. ILC, you are right. Huckabee is a social conservative, which all too often means big government. Love the guy but not for president. Romney strikes me as just too slick.
    They, along with Palin, are useful to keep the dialogue going, but we need someone who can capture the imagination of all Americans.

    Comment by Man — July 15, 2010 @ 6:53 pm - July 15, 2010

  11. Huckabee is a Southern Religious Conservative Democrat, and would be a Democrat today if this was the before the 60’s. He does well because to most people he comes off as nice and charismatic, and I doubt most people really know much about him in the broader electorate.

    I’m not too surprised Palin does well, but she does the worst with Former Obama independents. She would a Hillary Clinton like transformation to make her appeal to a broader electorate, but Hillary did have the highest negatives all of the Dem candidates starting out in 08 and well now she is like the most popular of all the Democrats.

    Romney or Daniels I’d be fine with, Daniels more so but no one knows if he is running.

    Comment by darkeyedresolve — July 15, 2010 @ 9:03 pm - July 15, 2010

  12. Quick question, and I don’t mean to sound combative: how exactly is she “not qualified for office?”

    Comment by AF_Vet — July 15, 2010 @ 11:36 pm - July 15, 2010

  13. Sorry…I was quick on the draw with the ‘send’ button: while her disapproval number is the highest, she is also tied with Romney with the highest approval # (37%).

    What this tells me, is that her disapproval is maxed out, as Obama voters know who she is; the others have maintained a relatively low profile, with plenty of room for their negatives to grow as Obama voters get to know them better. You can safely bet that if one of the others in this poll gets the GOP nomination, their negatives will rise significantly.

    My 3 cents.

    Comment by AF_Vet — July 15, 2010 @ 11:42 pm - July 15, 2010

  14. Yeah, the libs have set a pretty damn low bar as far as qualifications for the Oval Orifice. That guy downtown who babbles incoherently is more qualified than the Bamster, I’ll wager.

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — July 16, 2010 @ 3:36 am - July 16, 2010

  15. Obama brought in a team of like minded players who have run roughshod over the fundamental transformation of America and been darned successful at getting the job done. And, he has had more time for basketball, golf, vacations, and rides on AF-1 for petty stuff than any President in memory.

    Palin could bring in a team of like minded players who will run roughshod over the fundamental dismantling of the Obama nightmare and restoring America. And, with her team of Momma Grizzly Bears, she is savvy enough to put a ring in the noses of wobbly Republicans in Congress.

    People insist that Obama is brilliant. I have not seen the evidence. People insist that Palin is too intellectually ill prepared. I have not seen the evidence.

    Palin has staying power and played her cards very cleverly. I wonder if she is relying on the inside the beltway political pros that did such a wonderful job managing her during the McCain-Palin campaign? She has millions now and has does nothing but disappoint in cementing the image as the Wasilla Hillbilly.

    When the hit-piece book from her next door “neighbor” comes out, it will ignite the left wingnuts, but it will hardly inspire the ACORN shills who only understand the promises of “what’s in it for me” government welfare gravy train.

    Its not really a good time for Democrats to go on an extra dose of “America needs an enema” campaign.

    Comment by heliotrope — July 16, 2010 @ 7:55 am - July 16, 2010

  16. I’ve never been a fan of Palin, and still not. But, up to this point, I can’t see how she can do a worse job than Obama. I’d like to see at least a primary challenge to Obama, but doubt that will happen.

    I still don’t believe that Palin will be a major player (except perhaps behind the scenes). But, Dan, I haven’t forgotten my promise if 2012 shows otherwise.

    Comment by Pat — July 16, 2010 @ 8:00 am - July 16, 2010

  17. I want to see Republican debates with Palenty, Gingrich, Palin, Romney, Christie, Rubio, Barber….It will also help us choose a VP.

    Yes, but please no more GOP primary debates “moderated” by CNN. I’d like to hear candidates’ positions on issues I actually care about: not a lightning round of hand raising over who believes in evolution.

    Comment by DoDoGuRu — July 16, 2010 @ 8:23 am - July 16, 2010

  18. I can´t get excited by these numbers. It is too early. For months Tea Party Express and have been ballyhooing how Sharon Angle´s poll numbers were greater than Harry Reid´s and how vulnerable he is. Today Townhall posted poll numbers conducted by PPP and Angle trails Reid. This is a result of his finally spending big bucks. True Obama´s are falling and it is in the realm of possiblity that he could face a challenge for the Democratic nomination, as did Carter in 1980. If the Party goes with Obama,Soros just might buy the election again. The Republican candidate will need a massive war chest and will have to be squeaky clean. Newt Gingrich is very intelligent but he has baggage.
    The opposition will make an issue out of his divorcing his second wife while she was dying of cancer. There is no way he can present himself as a compassionate conservative. Bobby Jindal has gained executive experience but doesn´t have the charisma to win debates with Obama. Sarah Palin will be distracted by her leaving her office as Governor. Rick Santorum might have aspirations but he is too polarizing and lost his senate seat to a prolife Democrat.
    Tim Pawlenty is experienced and attractive, without the slickness of Mitt Romney. Gov. Haley Barbour has interesting credentials but would being from Mississippi be a negative? Some people think the next candidate could come from the House, like Eric Kantor.

    Comment by Roberto — July 16, 2010 @ 12:02 pm - July 16, 2010

  19. You are all making the assumption that Obama is going to run again and be the candidate to beat. My feeling is that he really doesn’t like being President and that he won’t run again. I think Hillary is the true target in 2012, and I don’t think any of the GOP crew can beat her, especially Palin.

    Comment by Hunter — July 16, 2010 @ 12:02 pm - July 16, 2010

  20. Love her to death, but Palin is damaged goods. She doesn’t stand a chance and would be EXTREMELY polarizing.
    Huckabee’s religion will play too loud, so he’s another damaged good.
    Newt and his contract won’t play again.
    Romney, I like him, but he makes me leary when he talks about the MA socialized medicine as being a success.
    The poll numbers are really disconcerting. WHERE IS OUR DARK HORSE?

    Comment by The other Peter H — July 16, 2010 @ 12:06 pm - July 16, 2010

  21. If Hillary runs, it will be all over.

    Comment by The other Peter H — July 16, 2010 @ 12:06 pm - July 16, 2010

  22. Sorry, wrong poll on Reid, Angle; it is the Rasmussen.

    Comment by Roberto — July 16, 2010 @ 12:10 pm - July 16, 2010

  23. Hunter, I don´t agree. Obama might not like the job of being President but he likes the limelight of being President. His ego is just too big to walk away. For the lousy job that Carter was doing and the Teddy Kennedy challenge he still wanted the second term. The pressure was great on Lyndon Johnson that he saw the handwriting on the wall and refused to be a candidate for the nomination to a second term. The only way I see Obama refusing to be the nominee is if the polls show that Sarah Palin would win in a walk, so that George Soros will tell Obama he´s not opening his wallet and the Clintons tell him to pack it in.

    Comment by Roberto — July 16, 2010 @ 12:26 pm - July 16, 2010

  24. And in the latest news, idiot Obama puppets Leland Yee and Moonbeam Brown have egg all over their faces after their snit fit over Palin’s speaking fee of $75k….. while her visit brought in over $200k for CSU-Stanislaus.

    Comment by North Dallas Thirty — July 16, 2010 @ 4:39 pm - July 16, 2010

  25. People insist that Palin is too intellectually ill prepared. I have not seen the evidence.

    Other than letting her daughter marry the douchenozzle of the year. But then, I suppose, she’s letting her daughter experience failure.

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — July 16, 2010 @ 5:20 pm - July 16, 2010

  26. People need to stop with this Hillary running in 2012, its not going to happen. Sitting Presidents, and most incumbents, get challenged from their party’s more idealogical wing not its moderate wing. Kennedy was to the left of Carter, Reagan was to the right of Ford, Buchanan was right of Bush Sr, LBJ was attacked by the anti-war left, so she doesn’t fit the pattern of it.

    Now, Obama might get challenged by his left flank though cause liberals aren’t happy with him. They are not happy about Afghanistan, they weren’t happy with health care, and so on. I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama becomes even more popular for some upstart leftist to run against him. We live in an era were its much easier to raise money and get a message now, you can bypass political machines to do it.

    I just don’t see Hillary running for the party that treated her like crap and told her quit for months, and now they want to her save them. She would get beaten up again as an opportunist and ambitious bitch by the media.

    Comment by darkeyedresolve — July 16, 2010 @ 8:12 pm - July 16, 2010

  27. should be even more unpopular…

    Comment by darkeyedresolve — July 16, 2010 @ 8:12 pm - July 16, 2010

  28. I thought this was an interesting comment from the what I read in that linked page…

    “Gallup in January 1983, after the 1982 midterms, had Mondale beating Reagan 52-40, and John Glenn beating Reagan by even more.”

    just goes to show, ya never know.

    Comment by Kevin — July 16, 2010 @ 11:14 pm - July 16, 2010

  29. I look at this from the point of view as an outsider and I really do think that Palin has the strongest chance to beat Obummer.

    I saw Palin for the first time when I was in the USA last year. She was attending an even in New York and I was impressed by how she knew her subject.

    It is not true to state that Palin is not prepared for the Presidency. If anything this woman was better prepared than the current incumbent. In the period in which she was mayor and then Governor in Alaska she cleaned up the corruption that existed and that included taking care of some corrupt Republicans as well as corrupt Democrats in government. On top of that she put her foot down where the oil companies were concerned and she forced them to do the right thing…. if anyone could have had a proper handle on the Gulf oil spill, then Sarah Palin would have been the one to have gotten the clean up aspects under control. There would have been no moratorium against offshore drilling and there would not have been the extensive damage to the coastline.

    As for the rest: you can forget both Rubio, Jindal and Nicky Haley. None of them are eligible since they are all not Natural Born Citizens per the definition by Vattel. Pawlenty would not be suitable because he is not a true fiscal conservative… and he is boring. When I hear the name Huckabee I go yuk… why? Simple really and it has to do with what he espouses in the religious sense. If anyone is going to be anti-evolution then Huckabee is your man…. but that is not my reason for not liking him… it has more to do with his attitude with regard to salvation for those who are not Baptist. The man is in the category of religious nut and not a good choice. Mittens is a bad choice too. Newt Gingrich is yesterday’s papers…. people are already over him. Johnston or is that Johnson, who is the only person to have declared himself as a candidate is in my view not suitable because he holds a postion on foreign troops that is not viable… (he is a Ron Paul type)…. that leaves Hayley Barbour but his accent will grate on a lot of people… in fact Hayley Barbour is the most qualified of the whole group because he has the depth of experience that is missing amongst the others.

    Also, I think that Jan Brewer is a non-starter.

    After Palin, my next choice is Chris Christie. He has been tackling the problems within New Jersey head on… the man could do a good job as President.

    Comment by Straight Aussie — July 18, 2010 @ 7:10 am - July 18, 2010

  30. Straight Aussie,

    I am not sure where you get the idea that Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, and Nicki Haley are all somehow ineligible to become President. Rubio was born in Miami, Florida; Jindal was born in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and Haley was born in Bamberg, South Carolina. That makes them all “Natural Born Citizens” of the United States.

    Personally, I want Mitch Daniels to run. He is a great governor who understands Washington.

    Comment by Dave N. — July 18, 2010 @ 1:40 pm - July 18, 2010

  31. Dave N. you list some fresh new faces and that’s one of my requirements. I want people who aren’t tainted by the old way of doing politics. People who will answer a question, and not meaander looking for an answer that will please almost every damn person. Rubio did that when answering a question about S Security. He plainly said, “hey we’ve got to raise the age, lower benefits or raise the co pay. Clear simple and to the point. You want to skewer him for that? Well then don’t expect simple answers to questions from Pols.

    Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — July 18, 2010 @ 6:59 pm - July 18, 2010

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