While polls don’t look that great for my gal Carly in California, things are picking up for her fellow Republican challengers across the nation. It looks like Ron Johnson has all but sealed the deal in Wisconsin, thus making five Democratic Senate seats (including also AR, IN, ND & PA) likely to flip to the GOP.
(As to the CA polls, Geraghty’s Obi-Wan thinks such oscillation is to be expected.)
With Republicans looking likely to hold all their seats, victories in those five states bring Republicans to 46 seats. This leaves us with the 7 toss-up races, CO, IL, WV, now leaning Republican, CA, CT and WA, now leaning Democratic (with the last two trending Republican) and NV, remaining the lone pure toss-up. And then there are the two likely Democratic seats DE and NY-2 (Gillibrand) that have the potential to become more competitive.
If Chris Dodd were still running for re-election, a GOP Senate would be in the cards. Right now, it looks like Republicans will pick up 8 or 9 seats, with a majority in the cards if trends in CT and WA continue and if Carly’s ads are as effective as Boxer’s have been.