Over on Facebook, my friend Matthew Berry, who ran a spirited race for the Republican nomination in Virginia’s 8th Congressional District, is predicting that Republicans will pick up 59 seats in the House and 8 in the Senate. Of course, if that good man and principled conservative had won his party’s nomination, it would be a 60-seat pick up in the House.
My own predictions is that we pick up 63-67 seats (64-68 had Matthew won), but sometimes I wonder if I’m being too conservative.
As I write this, my main source for news on House races, RealClearPolitics, lists 221 House seats as safe, likely or leaning to the GOP. (218 are needed for a majority; Republicans now control 179.) Let’s say GOP splits the 43 tossups (but the likelihood is that we’ll take more than half), that’s 21 (giving benefit of the doubt to the Dems for that half-seat). Now, say the GOP picks up 5 seats from the 26 currently leaning Democratic, but let’s take away 3 that Democrats may take from seats that appear to be going the Republicans’ way. (I would allocate more, but when you’ve got a CNN poll (which notoriously skews left) giving the GOP a “10 point advantage in the ‘generic ballot’ question“, looks like seats trending Republican will stay that way.)
So, we have 221 + 21 + 5 - 3 and get 244, That produces a 65-seat gain. But, recall, that’s splitting the tossups right down the middle.
So, what are you predictions — and what’s your ballsy prediction? Mine is that no Democrat wins a gubernatorial contest in New England (recall, I didn’t say Republicans would win them all, only that Democrats would lose them all). Oh — and that Tancredo wins in Colorado.
A Democratic poll shows the race in Connecticut is trending Republican.
UPDATE FROM BRUCE (GP): I thought I’d weigh in here. I think that the Republicans will win 55 seats in the House and 8 seats in the Senate. If there is a complete Democrat collapse (still possible, but not probable), then I believe there is the chance for 70 seats in the House and 10 seats in the Senate. I’m officially sticking with my more conservative projection.
My “ballsy” prediction: Heath Shuler (NC-11) will lose; Christine O’Donnell will win; and like Dan — Tom Tancredo will be CO’s next Governor.