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Lack of California Democrats’ enthusiasm for Boxer may give Fiorina edge in campaign’s last month

October 5, 2010 by B. Daniel Blatt

While the polls last week seemed to put the California U.S. Senate seat out of reach for Carly Fiorina, two polls this week indicate that the race remains a toss-up, with the incumbent Barbara Boxer enjoying a modest, but definitely not insurmountable lead.

One reason the 28-year Washington veteran seemed to surge was that with her cash advantage, she was the first to go on the air.  Now that Carly and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (along with the Chamber of Commerce) have returned fire, we see the career politician slipping again.  Her negatives remain very high.  And she just looks old — and out of touch.

While the SurveyUSA and Rasmussen polls still show Boxer ahead, Fiorina campaign spokesman Andrea Saul said the “race remains a dead heat”:

Despite the fact that Barbara Boxer spent weeks pouring millions of dollars of special-interest money into baseless attack ads against Carly, she was unable to significantly improve her standing with voters. Now that Carly is on the air setting the record straight about Barbara Boxer’s dismal 28-year career in Washington, voters are being reminded daily of just how little Boxer has delivered for California – and the gap is closing again.

And that gap may been even more narrow that polls suggest.  Save for a few die-hard lefties in San Francisco, Beverly Hills and other tony neighborhoods of Southern California, Democrats just aren’t enthusiastic about their party’s nominee.  When I told Democratic friend about the merits of Peace and Freedom Party nominee Marsha Feinland, he, while acknowledging the incumbent’s ineffectiveness, said he was sticking with Boxer because she’s the Democrat.  Hardly a ringing endorsement.

With Republicans, particularly in the Golden State (given the Democrats’ recent shenanigans), more raring to vote than their Democratic counterparts, the enthusiasm factor could tip races to the Republican where polling gives the Democrat a slight lead.  Pollster Glen Bolger contends that “A very cautious measure of the enthusiasm gap found it worth an average of an extra 4.6 points for Republicans on the ballot, adding anywhere from two to eight points to the GOP ballot score. That is a significant boost in close elections.”  (H/t:  Jim Geraghty.)

In the Central Valley, voters are incensed at the indifference of the federal government to their plight.  In the suburbs, independents and Republicans are concerned about higher taxes on their income and increasing government intrusion in their lives. Independents are concerned about the growing jobless rate and the decreasing number of employment opportunities.

These people are eager to trek to the polls to vote against the incumbent party.  Meanwhile, Democrats just can’t muster much enthusiasm about a three-term incumbent whose “most famous moments on Capitol Hill,” in the words of the liberal editors of the San Francisco Chronicle, “have not been ones of legislative accomplishment, but of delivering partisan shots.”

You can support Boxer’s opponent here.

Filed Under: 2010 Elections, California politics

Comments

  1. V the K says

    October 5, 2010 at 9:10 pm - October 5, 2010

    Actually, it’s the Legalize Pot referendum that’s going to drag Ma’am Boxer’s arrogant carcass over the finish line, along with senile hippie fossil Moonbeam Brown.

  2. MyNameHere says

    October 5, 2010 at 10:09 pm - October 5, 2010

    It is amazing how often and casually a republican will be mentioned on this site that has a hostile or negative attitude towards gays. It is just overlooked and not even mentioned in such a cavalier way. Not to mention the fact the Republican Party platform is far from gay friendly. This emotional suppression is not psychologically healthy for gay men and women. The only thing the republicans want from gays is their votes, not them.
    I see a post here for the TOTAL recall of so called Obama care, which is in reality Dole care also. I wonder how HIV positive gay men would feel about ending the “previous condition” portion of health care. Of course being a gay republican means never having to care a lick.

  3. B. Daniel Blatt says

    October 5, 2010 at 10:41 pm - October 5, 2010

    YourNameHere, please detail Calry Fiorina’s “hostile or negative attitude towards gays” with link to her actual statements and not to left-wing blogs or Democratic campaigns or similar web-sites.

    Thanks!

  4. North Dallas Thirty says

    October 5, 2010 at 11:00 pm - October 5, 2010

    Or better yet, MyNameHere:

    – Would you state that a candidate who states that they don’t support gay marriage and that marriage is a “sacred bond” between a man and a woman is “hostile or negative” toward gays?

    – Would you state that a candidate who supports the FMA is “hostile or negative” toward gays?

    – Would you state that a candidate who endorses and says he would have voted for state constitutional amendments banning gay marriage is “hostile or negative” toward gays?

    – Would you say that a leader who fires a gay employee who criticizes his attitude toward gays and lesbians is “hostile or negative” toward gays?

  5. V the K says

    October 5, 2010 at 11:01 pm - October 5, 2010

    I wonder how HIV positive gay men would feel about ending the “previous condition” portion of health care.

    Isn’t HIV largely a controllable consequence of behavior? Should the tax dollars of a healthy, abstinent person be confiscated so that a person who did not take reasonable precautions does not bear the consequences of his actions?

    It’s like the guy whose house burned down because he refused to pay a $75 dollar annual fee for fire protection. Yeah, it’s a bummer for him that he lost his house, but should he have been freeloading off his neighbors who paid their fire protection bill? Is that fair to his neighbors? Doesn’t isolating people from the consequences of bad decisions just encourage them to make more bad decisions?

  6. V the K says

    October 5, 2010 at 11:02 pm - October 5, 2010

    The problem with the whole “pre-existing condition” thing is it’s like not having car insurance, buying the insurance after you total your car, and then demanding the insurance company give you a new car.

  7. Democrats Against UN Agenda 21 says

    October 6, 2010 at 2:04 am - October 6, 2010

    Hi Bruce and Dan,
    We are in the SF Bay Area and have a website/blog: http://www.DemocratsAgainstUNAgenda21.com that is right in line with your point of view. We’re also gay. Please take a look and consider linking to us.
    Thanks, and thanks for your great site,
    Rosa

  8. ThatGayConservatives says

    October 6, 2010 at 5:01 am - October 6, 2010

    Not to mention the fact the Republican Party platform is far from gay friendly.

    You mean like getting Big Government out of our lives and letting US keep more of OUR money? Those dirty bastards!

  9. Stone K says

    October 6, 2010 at 7:38 am - October 6, 2010

    #1 Actually, it’s the Legalize Pot referendum that’s going to drag Ma’am Boxer’s arrogant carcass over the finish line, along with senile hippie fossil Moonbeam Brown. – V to the K

    Just offer free donut holes and brownies next door to the poling places and the pot heads will never make it to vote.

  10. Stone K says

    October 6, 2010 at 7:39 am - October 6, 2010

    ohh sorry V the K, my bad on your name…

  11. V the K says

    October 6, 2010 at 8:59 am - October 6, 2010

    I can live with V to the K.

    Just offer free donut holes and brownies next door to the poling places and the pot heads will never make it to vote.

    Or just tell them they already voted.

  12. B. Daniel Blatt says

    October 6, 2010 at 12:12 pm - October 6, 2010

    Dude, most stoners won’t even be aware of the reeferendum.

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