“In every wave year,” Henry Olsen writes in the National Review, “the winning party ends up grabbing seats that just a short time before the election were on no one’s radar screen.” He adds that with “so many Democratic incumbents on target lists [,] it seems futile to search for the sleepers.”
Given the number of political blogs and web-sites, most prognosticators have pretty much picked through the House and Senate races to find the potential upsets. While I’ve long been predicting the unhappy Barney Frank’s downfall, rumors of his impending electoral demise now are commonplace on conservative blogs — and even left-of-center newspapers. People talk about the defeat now of committee chairmen James Oberstar and John Spratt (as well as Frank) as few, thirty years ago, saw the writing on the wall for Al Ullman.
So, we won’t be that surprised if we see those three career politicians go down to to defeat.
But, will there be any surprises come election night?
Perhaps, if the Democrats manage to limit their losses, some might call that a surprise.
And yet, I’m thinking we might see some surprises in the gubernatorial races, with Republicans perhaps scoring upsets in the Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Hawai’i and Connecticut contests and independent Tom Tancredo possibly surprising in Colorado. (But will it be a surprise any more? The latest Rasmussen poll shows him trailing Democrat John Hickenlooper by 4 points, with Republican Dan Maes getting 12. If just half of Maes’ supporters decide to support the candidate most likely to defeat the Democrat, Tancredo wins.) While most polls show Rick Perry up in Texas, he has been Governor now for a full decade and maybe Lone Star State voters will decide, come November 2, that it’s time for a change.
So, it’s in those governors’ races where I think we might see some surprises. Perhaps, you see other races which might stun us 18 days hence.