Even in years when Republicans do well in congressional elections, they rarely lead the generic ballot matchup among likely voters. In the latest Gallup survey, they enjoy a comfortable leader among registered voters — while blowing the Democrats out of the water among likely voters:
Gallup’s tracking of the generic ballot for Congress finds Republicans leading Democrats by 5 percentage points among registered voters, 48% to 43%, and by 11- and 17-point margins among likely voters, depending on turnout. This is the third consecutive week the Republicans have led on the measure among registered voters, after two weeks in September when the parties were about tied.
Oh and, look at that trend line since mid-September–when people really start paying attention to the elections. All on the up and up for the GOP.
No wonder Obama’s been so angry of late.
UPDATE: Meanwhile, JammieWearingFool is most bullish:
I do expect a higher turnout this year, but not from depressed Democrats. Independents are moving overwhelming toward the GOP and for an off-year, expect what I like to call Broken Glass Republicans to come out in droves. That is, the folks who will crawl over broken glass to cast their vote against Obama, Reid and Pelosi.