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Charlie Cook: It’s Gonna Be A Bloodbath, Folks

Posted by Bruce Carroll at 7:29 pm - October 28, 2010.
Filed under: 2010 Elections

Well, those are my words.  Here are his:

House Editor David Wasserman surveys the largest House playing field since 1994 and explains why Democrats’ losses may well exceed the 52 seats they lost that year. Groggy newspaper readers could have easily mistaken headlines written about actual tornadoes and high winds ripping through the Midwest and South for accurate assessments of the House landscape. As the DCCC embarks on a $23 million last-ditch ad campaign in the final week, the chatter in most Democratic circles is no longer about whether there is any hope of holding onto the majority, but just how deep a hole they will have to climb out of in 2012. Even some GOP strategists express shock at the quality of Republican candidates who are competitive at the moment.

On our competitive House race chart, there are now 25 Democratic-held seats in the Lean Republican or Likely Republican columns, and just three GOP-held seats in the Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic columns, which makes for a base of 22 GOP pickups. Apart from those seats, 49 Democratic seats and just one Republican seat sit in the Toss Up column. In the unlikely event Democrats manage to win half of these races, they would still lose 46 seats and control. If, true to history, Republicans win more than half of the Toss Ups and a handful of the 27 races in the Lean Democratic column, GOP gains would approach 60 seats, potentially the largest single-cycle net House shift in 72 years.

That’d be 1938 folks.  If the count goes much above 60 for the GOP — then it is historic gains not seen since 1894. 

But we can’t win if we don’t VOTE!  I have already, so I can be a nudge with no regrets.

-Bruce (GayPatriot)

Must be GOProud’s expanded ad buy against Barney

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 7:24 pm - October 28, 2010.
Filed under: 2010 Elections,Mean-spirited leftists

UPDATE:  Via a reader, I learn this ad was just focused grouped on Sean Hannity’s show — and people loved it!!!

Informing us that Charlie Cook has moved the unhappy Barney Frank’s “seat from ‘likely Democratic’ to ‘lean Democratic’“, Allahpundit observes:

Remember, as of just a few weeks ago, this seat wasn’t even on the board. Then, for the first time in decades, MA-4 popped up in the “likely Democratic” column. And now, if you’ll pardon the pun, it’s moved a bit further to the right.

Combined with Bielat’s internal polling (about which the above blogger has expressed skepticism) showing the race within the margin of error, looks like ol’d Barney may have to dip a bit further into his reserves in order to hold onto his seat.  The polls, Robert Snider writes

. . . show that Bielat’s momentum has continued to build and that the momentum has occurred among crucial independents and in the usual Democratic strongholds in the southern part of the district. Frank’s support, which has been consistently below 50% (a crucial indicator of an incumbent’s chances), does not appear to be rising. The curve of Bielat’s support is on a vector to exceed Frank’s support before the date of the election.

Via Instapundit.  Couple that with enthusiasm for Bielet; “Bielat signs are all over the area in MA-4, with very few Frank signs at all”. Looks like ‘ol Barney could be washed away by the wave.

Let’s keep the pressure up on this career politician.  Help GOProud keep the ad on the air.  And help Barney’s opponent Sean Bielat over the finish line.

GOPROUD EXPANDS AD BUY AGAINST BARNEY FRANK

Love it, love it, love it.

(Washington, D.C.) – Today, GOProud, the only national organization representing gay conservatives and their allies, announced they were expanding their television advertising buy against Barney Frank (D-MA). The ad, entitled “The Real Democrats of Washington, D.C.,” will now air district wide on Bravo and Lifetime through Election Day. “The response to this ad has been overwhelming,” said Jimmy LaSalvia, Executive Director. “We know this ad is resonating and we are expanding the buy to help make sure voters know what an embarrassment Barney Frank is.”

The ad began airing in district on Monday of this week on Lifetime and Bravo in the Boston market. GOProud’s latest buy will now include the entire district, including portions in the southern part of the district covered by the Providence market, and the ad will now run through next Tuesday. “GOProud is committed to saving the jobs of millions of Americans, including gay and lesbian Americans, by firing Barney Frank – the man the responsible for the financial meltdown that devastated our economy,” concluded LaSalvia.

Here’s the ad.

And here’s a CNN report last week about the GOPROUD ad when it first hit the airwaves.

DONATE to GOProud — because even gay Democrats are destroying this nation one at a time. 

-Bruce (GayPatriot)

We Need Carly Fiorina to Repeal Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell

One of the primary reasons I’ve been so gung-ho for my gal Carly Fiorina is that she is a fiscal conservative who knows that we need to reduce the burdens government places on business while bucking her party on issues near and dear to my heart.  This accomplished woman both supports civil unions for gay couples and backs repeal of Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell (DADT).

While her opponent may hold similar views, Barbara Boxer’s been in the Senate for 18 years, and has so far failed to persuade any of her colleagues to vote on the Domestic Partnership Benefits and Obligations Act or repealing DADT.  Indeed, as the San Francisco Chronicle acknowledged, the Democrat couldn’t even move a climate change bill that was the signature project of the Senate committee she chairs!

Because “Boxer personalizes the political discourse,” John McCain said, “she’s had so very little effect of any kind in the political process”.  A polarizing figure is little help in changing minds.  Carly Fiorina, by contrast, is a much more congenial woman.  It’s Republican Senators we need to reach on DADT repeal — and federal civil unions.  And my gal can reach out to them.

These folks are far more likely to listen to an upbeat Republican than a divisive Democrat.  A Republican Senator from the nation’s largest state will certainly have considerable sway over her colleagues.

Barbara Boxer may say all the right things on gay issues, but she’s had her chance — and failed.  She’s accomplished nothing for gay Californians.  The Senate is a deliberative body where one’s ability to influence her fellows matters as much as — if not more than — one’s politics.

We need Republican votes to repeal DADT.  Carly Fiorina can be a strong voice for repeal in the Republican caucus.  Boxer can’t even get her fellow Democrats to act on one of their pet issues.

Simply put, if you want to see DADT repealed in the 112th Congress, in California, Carly Fiorina is your gal.

About that Public Employee Spending Spree on behalf of California Democrats . . .

For the better part of the day, Yahoo!’s home page has featured this as one of its top news stories, “In Calif., GOP candidate on record spending spree“.  In the article, we read that former Democratic Governor Jerry Brown has been outspent “outspent 6-1 through mid-October” by his Republican rival Meg Whitman.

At the end of the article, though, we learn that her real fundraising edge might not nearly be so great:

Whitman says the record-level spending is needed to offset the influence of public employee unions, which have spent some $20 million on Brown’s behalf. Her public appearances have been hounded by union activists, who have accused her of trying to buy the election.

So, we’ve got activists, speaking on behalf of public employee unions accusing someone of trying to buy an election.  That’s rich.  Indeed, in the past five years alone, unions have spent upwards of $300 million dollars on political activity in California.

That’s one of the real — and missed — stories of the election this fall in California.  We Republicans need a candidate with deep pockets to counter the built-in advantage the Democrats have from the public employee unions.  And they, those unions, more than any other interest group in the Golden State, are responsible for the mess we’re in.

Brown may have benefited in the polls for grandstanding on the outrageous pensions that Democrats in the City of Bell awarded to various municipal employees, but it was his understudy Gray Davis who helped create the mess.  As Steven Malanga notes in his must-read piece “The Beholden State,” the problems began in 1998 when Davis, a former chief of staff to Brown for the better part of the latter’s tenure as governor, ran for his old boss’s job: (more…)

Is Giannoulias Greek for Toast?

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 3:18 pm - October 28, 2010.
Filed under: 2010 Elections

Earlier this week, we learned that independent voters in Illinois appear to be

. . . breaking for [Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Mark] Kirk. Fifty percent said in the recent poll that they support Kirk, up from 38 percent in a similar poll four weeks ago. [Democrat] Alexi Giannoulias is holding steady with just 28 percent among independents. The number of undecided independents dropped from 22 percent four weeks ago to 8 percent in this poll, indicating that it looks like they are flocking to Kirk.

The other worrisome point for Giannoulias: The collar counties. These suburban Chicago counties are critical for Republicans running statewide in Illinois. Democrats have to at least hold their own in this area in order to be successful. In this most recent poll, Kirk is leading 55 percent to 30 percent in these Chicago suburbs.

With independents breaking against you, it’s probably not going to help to acknowledge that your campaign’s been playing some dirty tricks: (more…)

Could Disgruntled Gay Voters Impact Close Blue State Elections?

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 12:31 pm - October 28, 2010.
Filed under: 2010 Elections,Gay Politics

So does Pajamas Media paraphrase a question I explored for them.  Let me give you a taste of how I addressed he issue:

Even though Barack Obama captured 70% of the gay vote in 2008, he ran behind the share John Kerry won four years previously.  At least according to CNN exit polls of 77% of gay, lesbian and bisexual Americans preferred the 2004 Democratic nominee to George W. Bush (who had that year signaled his support for the Federal Marriage Amendment).

Still, 70% of the gay vote is nothing to sneeze it.  With promises to repeal Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell (DADT) and the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) while including gays in federal hate crimes protections and enacting the Employment Non-Discrimination ACT (ENDA), Obama rode a wave of hope that, once elected, he would sign legislation designed to bring positive change for gay Americans.

Yet, once in office, he has failed to deliver, save on signing a more comprehensive hate crimes bill which includes sexual orientation among the groups previously covered.

Click here to read the rest.

Help Carly Fiorina Over the Finish Line

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 12:06 pm - October 28, 2010.
Filed under: 2010 Elections,California politics

As Carly emerges from the hospital, stronger and more energetic than ever, her campaign is launching one last moneybomb to keep her ads running up until the election to remind voters of Barbara Boxer’s failed record in the United State Senate and of her commitment to work hard on behalf of California.

Carly knows Californians are hurting, with businesses closing or leaving Caliornia.  We need someone willing to fight for us, not, in the words of Boxer’s hometown paper, deliver “partisan shots” as Mrs. Boxer has done throughout her long tenure in Washington.

If we want to change Washington, we need to change the people we send there.  Help make that possible by make a last-minute contribution to my gal Carly.

Boxer Campaign Apologizes, Tries to Pass the Buck

Don’t know if it’ll make the news, but it sure would garner some coverage if 28-year Washington veteran Barbara Boxer didn’t have a laminated Get Out of Jail Free Card (D) after her name.

Boxer’s campaign manager Rose Kapolczynski has apologized for trying to reach out to public school teachers recruit students to “volunteer” for the career politician:

The sole intent of the letter was to provide interested students with information about a volunteer opportunity. However, the letter, which was written by a volunteer and reviewed by a junior staffer, was inappropriate and we apologize. The author of the letter has been counseled and campaign coordinators will no longer conduct outreach to public schools.

Over at BigGovernment, Alexander Marlow parses Rose’s statement:

. . . according to the Boxer crew…

The letter did not ask teachers to solicit students to work on the campaign or to use school facilities, supplies or equipment for political purposes…

If this is true, then why are they apologizing?  They’ve done nothing wrong after all!

But they have done something wrong: Those responsible for Boxer’s reelection bid asked teachers to pimp out their kids for her campaign, and got caught red handed.  Now they have the audacity to play semantics games in the press and pass the blame down the chain to “a junior staffer.”

Yeah, well, passing the blame is a game where Boxer excells.  Recall how she enthusiastically echoed the president’s promise of “approximately 400,000” jobs created (or saved) in the Golden State with the “stimulus”?  Now, with California suffering with the third highest unemployment in the nation, Boxer won’t even question if the policies she backed just might have prevented entrepreneurs from expanding and creating new employment opportunities.

Support someone who knows how to get a business going and keep it up and running.

(H/t:  Reader Jesse.)

Endorsing Carly Because Boxer Hasn’t Done Anything for California

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 2:36 am - October 28, 2010.
Filed under: 2010 Elections,California politics

In endorsing Carly, JSF at Valley of the Shadow acknowledges me for working the Carly beat and faults her opponent, 3-term Senator Barbara Boxer, for doing nothing for California.

Well, Boxer did name a post office.  And change the name of a Court house.  Oh, and, she changed the name of a river.  But, that was in Virginia.

Maybe people from California vacation there.

“You don’t,” he writes, “need a Democratic Senator to do those Bills; Any Senator of any party can do those bills.” What we need is a Senator who can get the water flowing again in the Central Valley. And Boxer, the Chair of the Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works, has instead been chasing her dream of a cap and trade bill.

Even on her pet issue, she couldn’t get anything done.  “Although she is chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee,” wrote the left-of-center editors of her hometown paper, “it is telling that leadership on the most pressing issue before it – climate change – was shifted to Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., because the bill had become so polarized under her wing.”

Help Carly across the finish line so we can have someone in Washington who actually does something for California.

Obama Evolving on Gay Marriage or Pandering for the Gay Vote?

When Bruce e-mailed me a link to a tweet he had received on the president’s first sit down interview with gay media, I wrote back quickly saying, that the Democrat must “really must be fearing that he’s losing the gay vote”. And sure enough, following the link a few hours later, I read this on AMERICAblogGay’s Twitter page:

RT @chrislhayes: Note to WH: Just a thought, might be a good idea to communicate directly to your base *before* the last week of a campaign

The reports we’ve been reading about a dispirited gay base may well be more than just reports.

Now comes word that in that interview, he said his views on gay marriage were “evolving.”  And the cynic in me wondered if it was that he was evolving on gay marriage, but that he was pandering to the gay community, recalling how so many rushed back to Bill Clinton even after he broke his promise on repealing the ban on gays serving in the military and, in the dead of the night, signed the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA).

With the rise of the blogosphere and Chris Hayes’ comment above, I don’t think as many gays are eager to return to the Democrats’ embrace as they were in the 1990s.  Chalk it up to experience.  And new media.