GayPatriot

The Internet home for American gay conservatives.

Charlie Cook: It’s Gonna Be A Bloodbath, Folks

by

Well, those are my words.  Here are his:

House Editor David Wasserman surveys the largest House playing field since 1994 and explains why Democrats’ losses may well exceed the 52 seats they lost that year. Groggy newspaper readers could have easily mistaken headlines written about actual tornadoes and high winds ripping through the Midwest and South for accurate assessments of the House landscape. As the DCCC embarks on a $23 million last-ditch ad campaign in the final week, the chatter in most Democratic circles is no longer about whether there is any hope of holding onto the majority, but just how deep a hole they will have to climb out of in 2012. Even some GOP strategists express shock at the quality of Republican candidates who are competitive at the moment.

On our competitive House race chart, there are now 25 Democratic-held seats in the Lean Republican or Likely Republican columns, and just three GOP-held seats in the Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic columns, which makes for a base of 22 GOP pickups. Apart from those seats, 49 Democratic seats and just one Republican seat sit in the Toss Up column. In the unlikely event Democrats manage to win half of these races, they would still lose 46 seats and control. If, true to history, Republicans win more than half of the Toss Ups and a handful of the 27 races in the Lean Democratic column, GOP gains would approach 60 seats, potentially the largest single-cycle net House shift in 72 years.

That’d be 1938 folks.  If the count goes much above 60 for the GOP — then it is historic gains not seen since 1894.

But we can’t win if we don’t VOTE!  I have already, so I can be a nudge with no regrets.

-Bruce (GayPatriot)

Comments

  1. So, if the Republicans take 40 seats in the house and fail to take the Senate, do the Democrats get to claim it’s a victory because the outcome is contrary to the predicted results? Do these predictions take into account the widespread (D) voter fraud perpetrated by SEIU and the various Secretaries of State?

    Is it too much to ask not to count (or to not count – I get confused on how properly to split the infinitive) the votes before they’re actually tallied?

  2. So let me make sure I got this. If they take 53 seats, they beat 1994? making it historic? Cool!

    But JD is right. There is only one poll that counts, the one on Election Day.

  3. David Broder, the Dean of the Press Corps for 107 years, says that a major upset is not a mandate. I worked the numbers out and unless the Republicans take 682 seats in the House and 274 seats in the Senate, the outcome will just be a normal mid-term correction. (According to David Broder, the Dean of the Press Corps for 176 years.) (David Broder, the Dean of the Press Corps for 211 years, is also the brains behind and in front of political reporting at the Washington Post.) (The Washington Post is the most trusted name in political reporting in no small part due to David Broder, Dean of the Press Corps since he and Benjamin Franklin went into the printing partnership.)

  4. Vote for the opponent of any House or Senate Democrat who voted to pass Obamacare. If your Congressional representative won’t tell you how he voted, just check out http://www.docs4patientcare.org to find out! Site also has an interesting video about how the Secretary of HHS will be the boss of all of our doctors! God help us if we can’t repeal it. The way I look at it, our military are fighting for America overseas and all of us at home must fight to save our country by voting next Tuesday!

  7. It’s not over until all the votes of the dead are counted here in Crook County. I voted early last week: held my nose, gagged a bit, and voted for Mark Kirk.

    I’ll say it again – the Republicans better realize what this election means and what the people want. If not, then a 3rd party in 2012.

  8. I heard today, Roger, that Cook County election officials delivered thousands of unrequested ballots to inmates despite Illinois law that expressly prohibits inmates from voting. The same Cook County Democrats that disenfranchised thousands of military voters by “accidentally” not getting their ballots sent in time.

    Funny how it’s always and only Democrat counties that “accidentally” disenfranchise military voters.

  9. It isn’t always and only Democrats. Republicans were involved in a vote-caging scandal not too long ago which affected a lot of military voters. But otherwise Democrats are pretty keen on disenfranchising those who do not support them while extending the vote to those who do.

  12. I’m kind of intrigued by the notion that GOPers had any “scandal” about holding or delaying votes by overseas military personnel –I recall it was the Gore Campaign lawyers who wanted to destroy all military ballots in the 2000 recount because a date might not have been completely filled in, or a signature attesting to the vote wasn’t placed exactly within the lines of the ballot enclosure envelope.

    In Michigan, Nate, you should know that the biggest voter scandal since the days of repeated fraud by Obama’s ACORN comes from a longtime Democrat activist trying to fraud voters by putting Tea Party candidates on election ballots in close contests –even tho the candidates say they never signed any candidate application, never advanced their names as nominees, never attended any nominating conventions to do so.

    Guess what?

    That Democrat activist was working for the Democrat Party nominee for Secy of State –the chief elections officer of the state!

    Democrats have long been the party of vote fraud, Nate. ACORN, Dem cities like Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, DC, Atlanta… HUGE vote fraud.

    GOPers don’t want to cage any military ballots because we know they vote 85% in favor of the GOP choices… what a stupid contention.

  13. ROUT THE SOCIALISTS
    ROUT THE LIBERALS
    VOTE EARLY AND OFTEN

    My predictions House +79
    Senate +8
    and Obama won’t change course at all.
    But he won’t run again. He isn’t having any fun. Michelle would rather travel and act like a Princess. Malika and Stasha too.