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So, What Are Your “Ballsy” Electoral Predictions?

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 12:18 pm - October 31, 2010.
Filed under: 2010 Elections

Over on Facebook, my friend Matthew Berry, who ran a spirited race for the Republican nomination in Virginia’s 8th Congressional District, is predicting that Republicans will pick up 59 seats in the House and 8 in the Senate.  Of course, if that good man and principled conservative had won his party’s nomination, it would be a 60-seat pick up in the House.

My own predictions is that we pick up 63-67 seats (64-68 had Matthew won), but sometimes I wonder if I’m being too conservative.

As I write this, my main source for news on House races, RealClearPolitics, lists 221 House seats as safe, likely or leaning to the GOP.  (218 are needed for a majority; Republicans now control 179.)  Let’s say GOP splits the 43 tossups (but the likelihood is that we’ll take more than half), that’s 21 (giving benefit of the doubt to the Dems for that half-seat).  Now, say the GOP picks up 5 seats from the 26 currently leaning Democratic, but let’s take away 3 that Democrats may take from seats that appear to be going the Republicans’ way.  (I would allocate more, but when you’ve got a CNN poll (which notoriously skews left) giving the GOP a “10 point advantage in the ‘generic ballot’ question“, looks like seats trending Republican will stay that way.)

So, we have 221 + 21 + 5  – 3 and get 244,  That produces a 65-seat gain.  But, recall, that’s splitting the tossups right down the middle.

So, what are you predictions — and what’s your ballsy prediction?  Mine is that no Democrat wins a gubernatorial contest in New England (recall, I didn’t say Republicans would win them all, only that Democrats would lose them all).  Oh — and that Tancredo wins in Colorado.

A Democratic poll shows the race in Connecticut is trending Republican.

UPDATE FROM BRUCE (GP):  I thought I’d weigh in here.  I think that the Republicans will win 55 seats in the House and 8 seats in the Senate.  If there is a complete Democrat collapse (still possible, but not probable), then I believe there is the chance for 70 seats in the House and 10 seats in the Senate.  I’m officially sticking with my more conservative projection.

My “ballsy” prediction:  Heath Shuler (NC-11) will lose; Christine O’Donnell will win; and like Dan — Tom Tancredo will be CO’s next Governor.

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26 Comments

  1. 81+ in House and 9 in the Senate.

    Comment by JadedByPolitics — October 31, 2010 @ 1:25 pm - October 31, 2010

  2. O’Donnell wins.

    Comment by bigurn — October 31, 2010 @ 2:11 pm - October 31, 2010

  3. 96+ seats in the house, tie in the senate, barney frank loses, Steny Hoyer loses……

    Comment by ThomasF — October 31, 2010 @ 2:40 pm - October 31, 2010

  4. 75 in the House, 11 in the Senate.

    I keep thinking of some friends who ran a contest every four years to predict the state-by-state outcome of Presidential elections. Their teenage son won the contest in 1984 by simply picking Reagan to carry all 50 states (he carried 49); none of the rest of us were that bold at all, even those of us who favored Reagan.

    I likewise remember the 1994 election. A left-leaning publication — Rolling Stone, I suspect, since I still read it back then, mostly for the occasional P. J. O’Rourke article — ran an article about Newt Gingrich in the spring of 1994, in which Gingrich spoke about his plan to become Speaker after the ’94 elections. That was, as far as I recall, the only article or news report I saw prior to election night that suggested the Republicans could win the house, and I remember with profound satisfaction the stunned look on the faces of the network anchors and commentators as the results rolled in.

    Oh, how I want to see that same consternation again on Tuesday night.

    Comment by bfwebster — October 31, 2010 @ 3:03 pm - October 31, 2010

  5. 63 in the House, 10 in the Senate. I can imagine either O’Donnell or Miller winning, but not both at the same time. Oh well, any election that ends with Castle and (maybe) Murkowski ‘retired’ is a great one for America no matter who wins.

    Comment by Davep. — October 31, 2010 @ 3:11 pm - October 31, 2010

  6. 57-63 House seats, 7-8 senate seats… lots and lots of vote fraud in WA, IL, and NV. Biggest House disappointment: Barney Frank goes back. Biggest Senate disappintment: Tie… the dingbats from Washington and California go back. Biggest upset… I’m gonna go out on a limb… Tom Tancredo as Colorado Governor.

    Comment by V the K — October 31, 2010 @ 3:29 pm - October 31, 2010

  7. I’m gonna stick with my prediction of 79 in the House.
    9 in the Senate.
    Surprise or upset…
    The WHouse says it would have been worse if not for Obamas constant negative campaigning.
    Seriously my surprise is
    Joe Miller survives and C O Donnell loses but by only a few points calling into question the lack of support by the national Republican Party.

    Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — October 31, 2010 @ 3:56 pm - October 31, 2010

  8. As I have been saying since this past summer – with lots of GP’ers poo-pooing my enthusiasm – here are my predictions:

    a) 60-75 seats in the House – including 2 in TX which were formerly Dhimmicrat. I also see Bielat winning in MA.
    b) 7-10 seats in the Senate – including GOP wins in WV, CA, OH, NV and FL. I also see WA and AK going down to the wire.
    c) Tancredo wins in CO as an independent but will align with the GOP.
    d) The entire all-white commentator bunch at MSNBC goes into meltdown.
    e) Olbermann, Matthews and Schultz are carried out in white jackets with saliva running down their chins (okay, I made this one up).

    I can see 2012 from my back yard! 😉

    Regards,
    Peter H.

    Comment by Peter Hughes — October 31, 2010 @ 4:07 pm - October 31, 2010

  9. If Scott wins and Reid & Pelosi lose, it will be a good day. The rest is gravy.

    Pete, since Schultz had his snotty-nosed crying fit and threatened to burn down 30 Rock, he gets to go to Vegas to cover the demise of Reid.

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — October 31, 2010 @ 4:24 pm - October 31, 2010

  10. A number of Republicans who’ve been behind in the polls have momentum, are closing rapidly as the election approaches and are within striking distance. I think Tuesday is going to be bigger and more full of suprises than anyone can imagine right now. I am pulling for a Baker upset in MA! ….Go Carly!

    Comment by Eddie — October 31, 2010 @ 5:14 pm - October 31, 2010

  11. Heath Shuler will win but then switch parties before January.

    My ballsy prediction is this election will be a repeat of ’94.

    1894.

    Following a severe recession, the GOP won about 125 seat in the house and the plurality of seats in the Senate.

    Comment by Church Mouse Republican — October 31, 2010 @ 6:06 pm - October 31, 2010

  12. #11 – From your mouth to God’s ears.

    Regards,
    Peter H.

    Comment by Peter Hughes — October 31, 2010 @ 6:24 pm - October 31, 2010

  13. In SC Mulvaney beats a 28 year incumbent!!!!!!!!

    Comment by PatriotMom — October 31, 2010 @ 8:14 pm - October 31, 2010

  14. My Ballsy predictions:

    (R) Win the SENATE
    Please Welcome: Senator Christine O’Donnell (R-DE)
    Gov. Tancredo in CO.

    Comment by Jesse — October 31, 2010 @ 8:18 pm - October 31, 2010

  15. 55 seats, I think some of the Democrats will hold on and not fall to as big of a wave as predicted.

    7 to 8 seats, O’Donnell loses, Mukrow ends up winning, Machin loses, and Murray holds on.

    If the bottom really does fall out, go up to 75 seats and 9 Seats, with Republicans picking up Washington.

    The polling this year has definitely missed the mark on primaries when it comes to Republican voters turning out. Nothing surprises me this election, its already been one for the books.

    Comment by darkeyedresolve — October 31, 2010 @ 8:19 pm - October 31, 2010

  16. One more guys:

    Sean Bielat BEATS Elmer Fudd in MA.

    Comment by Jesse — October 31, 2010 @ 8:20 pm - October 31, 2010

  17. Here’s my ballsy prediction:

    Union thugs use special treats to get idiots to vote.

    Every election where a Republican doesn’t win by at least several thousand is met by lots of legal challenges until they lose!

    🙂

    Comment by Tim — October 31, 2010 @ 8:34 pm - October 31, 2010

  18. Why would Christina O’Donnell win? From a policy standpoint, she has done nothing to suggest she’d make a good politician. The people of Delaware agree with that sentiment. The polls show it. She’s down by double digits. And to top that off, she’s running in Delaware, so even if she was a quality political candidate, she’d probably lose.

    Comment by Mitch — October 31, 2010 @ 11:40 pm - October 31, 2010

  19. Pulling for Van Tran to upset Loretta Sanchez in CA-45 (not my district).

    Comment by Eddie — November 1, 2010 @ 1:38 am - November 1, 2010

  20. 70 in the house including Bielat and the Arizona rocket scientist, 10 in the senate including Miller and yes, O’Donnell. And it’s going to be a very good year at the state level as well, where Republicans will control redistricting at unprecedented levels.

    Comment by American Elephant — November 1, 2010 @ 5:26 am - November 1, 2010

  21. 18. So the alternative is preferable, Mitch?

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — November 1, 2010 @ 6:54 am - November 1, 2010

  22. she has done nothing to suggest she’d make a good politician

    “Good politicians” are most of the reason the country is in the mess that we’re in.

    Comment by V the K — November 1, 2010 @ 7:59 am - November 1, 2010

  23. My ¨Ballsy¨ predictions, Carly Fiorina will lose, unfortunately. Star Parker will pull a surprise win in CA-37. Because of population loss (if illegals don´t count) California will lose three House seats in the next reapportionment.

    Comment by Roberto — November 1, 2010 @ 12:38 pm - November 1, 2010

  24. […] while I’m predicting the GOP picks up 63-67 seats, while wondering if that number is “too conservative“, I urge a little bit of caution, not because I’m not optimistic, but because, well, I […]

    Pingback by GayPatriot » Managing (Electoral) Expectations — November 2, 2010 @ 2:43 am - November 2, 2010

  25. I guess I was wrong and I am feeling mildly disatisfied

    11. Heath Shuler will win but then switch parties before January.

    My ballsy prediction is this election will be a repeat of ’94.

    1894.

    Following a severe recession, the GOP won about 125 seat in the house and the plurality of seats in the Senate.

    Comment by Church Mouse Republican — November 3, 2010 @ 2:01 am - November 3, 2010

  26. Church Mouse, I expect a few party switchers in the coming days. But, then outside of NC, Democrats pretty much got wiped out in the South — and Ohio.

    And for ’12, there are still some ripe seats for the plucking in New England, NY, NC and one or town in PA, VA and KY and maybe one in AZ, a bunch in CA and maybe a couple in WA.

    Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — November 3, 2010 @ 5:48 am - November 3, 2010

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