UPDATE: I’m officially revising my predictions. Biden is campaigning in VERMONT today. VERMONT! That is PATRICK LEAHY, folks. Why the hell would Biden need to go there?
My new prediction: 65 House seats for GOP and 10 Senate seats. And I think the House GOP win could be much, much more than 65.
Gallup has just released it’s final generic ballot preference survey. Republicans hold a 15 point spread.
45% projected turnout; slightly higher than recent historic trends
55% prefer Republicans, 40% prefer Democrats.
Gallup says if this holds up, the Republicans’ current voting model suggests that a 60 seat pickup is now the floor for the House, not the ceiling.
It should be noted, however, that this year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.
Developing…. on Tuesday.