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Where will the gays Democrats go after they get what they want?

Comes interesting news this week that an internal Democratic poll shows strong support for President Obama among gays, lesbians, bisexuals, and the transgendered. Of note, this poll was done before the repeal of DADT last month.

Some serious concerns about the interpretation of this poll. First of all, the poll was released only to the Huffington Post blog and only “on the condition that the full survey not be published.” Whenever a) the internals of a poll are not released and b) the results are sent only to a partisan publication for dissemination, it’s clear an agenda is being advanced by the numbers, that might not be borne out by the actual findings.

What’s more, in such an instance, plenty of questions arise: 64% either “approved” or “strongly approved”. So was that 10% “strongly” and 54% simply approving? Perhaps that’s splitting hairs, but it’s still significant. That the original results aren’t released suggests the depth of support might not be as impressive as its breadth. Another question: Where are these folks? There are no comparable approve/disapprove numbers from the same poll to indicate this demographic is any more supportive of Obama than the population (from which the respondents were separated as being “LGBT”) overall. Point being, poll gays and lesbians in San Francisco, you’ll likely find the same level of overwhelming support for Teh One as you would from that city’s overall population. Bottom line, this poll leaves many more questions than answers, if you’re willing to ask them.

But one great thing it does is offer up once again the opportunity to discuss the following thesis:

As more “gay” issues are settled by democratic means (as opposed to court mandates and decrees), and are therefore taken off the table, do you suppose gays and lesbians will begin to concern themselves with more important issues like the economy and national defense when it comes to picking their representatives? When HRC, Equality Matters and the slew of other left-wing advocacy groups don’t have things like DADT, ENDA, and marriage to flail about, do you think gays and lesbians will start to vote on more universal issues, and therefore gravitate more toward those who share American values of small government, low taxes, individual liberty, and a strong national defense?

To expand on the point to which Dan alludes directly below, the caricature of conservatives being ogres who simply hate gays and want to keep us all down and “would send us all to an island if they had their way” may be useful in this (and previous) day and age when some are still so animated about certain “rights”. But take away those “struggles”, and who would you vote for?

-Nick (ColoradoPatriot, from TML)

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7 Comments

  1. Had dinner with a liberal gay friend last night. He is a principled and usually-sane guy, not an ultra-liberal. He assured me that President Tuvok is only against gay marriage to get re-elected in 2012 and after His re-election, He will come out for gay marriage.

    Several things wrong with that. The one most embarassing to me as a gay marriage supporter, is my friend’s blithe acceptance that President Tuvok is (and in some pragmatic sense, should be) a liar.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — January 4, 2011 @ 1:54 pm - January 4, 2011

  2. (continued) I thought Vulcans weren’t supposed to lie.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — January 4, 2011 @ 1:59 pm - January 4, 2011

  3. Why would they switch back? It’s no different than feminists and blacks. They will find other reasons to stay democrats. They want special treatment. It won’t be long before gays will want entitlements and healthcare. AIDS will be a new line of attack. Sexual assignment surgery for Transexsuals. Viagra for gay men. You see, liberalism doesn’t end. It continues until it breaks. Hopefully, America will end like Greece sooner than later.

    Comment by anon23532 — January 4, 2011 @ 2:30 pm - January 4, 2011

  4. I agree with anon23532. Black voters have stuck with the Democratic Party because of the legacy of the Civil Rights Movement decades after it ended. If the Democratic Party can take credit for ‘gay rights’ just as the Democratic Party took credit for ‘civil rights’, they will create a generation (or maybe multiple generations) of gay voters.

    Institutional inertia matters. I don’t see how this inertia doesn’t favor the Democratic Party.

    Comment by Paper — January 4, 2011 @ 3:09 pm - January 4, 2011

  5. I don’t think gays and lesbians will migrate en masse to the conservative side simply because of the DADT repeal and/or gay marriage. Most gay liberals are, I think, liberal because they tend toward social welfare, multiculturalism, and pacifism. Being part of a group that’s attacked and having something as big as sexual identity to come to terms with, causes many GLBTs to identify implicitly with the underdog in society. Once they have gay marriage they are going to realize they still have a conflict with Christian conservatives. Once they see gay men come out of the closet in the military, they are going to realize that DADT was not the true problem, but an entrenched antigay culture in the armed forces was, and gay men will be inside the institution but blocked from advancing to the jobs they want.

    My guess is that gays will be like Latinos: 1/3 conservative, 2/3 liberal. A little less liberal than blacks, but more liberal than women.

    Comment by Robert Oscar Lopez — January 4, 2011 @ 4:28 pm - January 4, 2011

  6. I agree with Robert Oscar Lopez. I think the TEA Party and conservative Republicans can make conservative gays feel welcome, but I do not think they can make liberal gays become conservative.

    My association with gays is among those who are generally low-key about being gay and businesslike in their demeanor. They may vote Democrat, but they don’t carry banners for gay rights. I meet plenty of gays who have a gay agenda which they lead with and they fairly quickly make it known that I am either “out of touch” or dancing with homophobes. I would be astounded if one of the latter group turned out to be conservative in a general political sense.

    Comment by Heliotrope — January 4, 2011 @ 4:44 pm - January 4, 2011

  7. There’s an ad on TV for a penis pump which they say is covered by Medicare. How long before we have demands for “vibrating massagers” to be covered?

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — January 4, 2011 @ 4:54 pm - January 4, 2011

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