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If economy dominates 2012 race, it’ll be curtains for Obama

With the exception of an AP poll heavily skewed toward the Democrats, few polls have showed the president with a significant bounce for the greatest accomplishment of his term, the dispatch of Osama bin Laden.  While Barbara Walters and Joy Behar may see this operation as heralding Obama’s reelection, most sober-minded pundits understand that his task will not be so easy.

Perhaps, the president would have enjoyed a bigger bounce if the war on terror topped the items on our agenda.  As Ace, in his own inimitable way, puts it:

It’s also a fact of life that terrorism and foreign policy are not tip-top issues for most voters anymore, not like they were from 2001-2005. That’s how Democrats got into office in the first place– by downplaying such issues, and the public agreeing that they should be downplayed. The public isn’t going to suddenly make these issues of 2001-2005 potency just because Captain Bullshit reverses his previous position and now declares we should vote exclusively on terrorism.

“The main event,” Ace adds, “is the economy, and that’s not going to change.”  Read the whole thing.  Looking at the economic numbers, Peter Wehner contends that Obama will be “The Easiest Incumbent to Beat since 1980“:

We are now in the fifth month of Barack Obama’s third year in office. Unemployment is at 9.0 percent. We’re about 7 million jobs short of where things stood when Obama took office. Economic growth in the first quarter was 1.8 percent. Housing prices have fallen for 57 consecutive months. Only one in three Americans approve of the way Obama is handling the economy, the lowest point since he took office, and nearly eight in 10 American are less optimistic about the economy than they were a few months ago.

Indeed, even the most recent NBC/WSJ poll which also skews Democratic shows that “Only 37 percent approve of the president’s handling of the economy, while 58 percent disapprove.



  1. I pretty much agree.

    Democrats like “Barbara Walters and Joy Behar [who] see this operation as heralding Obama’s reelection” are idiots. They implicitly validate the security policies of the Bush administration – giving people less reason to vote Democrat, if security is going to be the top issue. But, barring a new major attack, it won’t be; the economy will. Thus, politically they are ‘fighting the last war’.

    Nobody is going to care that Obama completed the Bush legacy (by killing OBL) when gas is over $6 and unemployment is over 10% again. The question is, when they will be. Obama’s policy have our economy poised to go off a cliff. Where I disagree is that Obama might still get lucky; we might not go off the cliff until 2013. If so, then Obama probably wins re-election.

    But one way or another, in his first term or his second, Obama is going to be buried, when we finally do go off the cliff. History will record him as the guy who insisted, unbelievably, that the proper response to a debt crisis was to spend-and-borrow more.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — May 11, 2011 @ 2:00 pm - May 11, 2011

  2. Look for a Reagan ascendant, not the typical progressive/libertarian from the liberal wing of the Republican Party. The fight for the White House has always been about domestic policy since the Eisenhower nomination regardless of the intent of the neo-cons. It will not even be necessary to appease the establishment Republicans as Reagan did in 1980. Reagan and Goldwater had a cakewalk compared to what will transpire during the 2012 POTUS nominating process.

    Comment by RJLigier — May 11, 2011 @ 2:37 pm - May 11, 2011

  3. President Obama’s main issues are Amnesty & green energy as he tries to change the subject from the economy & inflation; Obama, in the end, will not be able to change the subject as gas prices remain high as does unemployment, despite Obama trying to play shell games with the numbers. Too many people are out of work as prices remain high. Obama must defend why he wants prices to remain high without resorting to class warfare. Will this happen? No. Obama will talk about anything except the substantive issues. The Democrats–who are up for re-election–will run away from green energy & Amnesty as well. Obama remains in his own Marxist Obamaland, cut off from the real world. I expect him to become more publicly unhinged as the election closes in & the Democrats do not turn out in 2012.

    Comment by Sebastian Shaw — May 11, 2011 @ 3:07 pm - May 11, 2011

  4. I disagree. Harry Reid and Babs Boxer were handily re-elected despite being loathed by the voters, and Obama is already emulating their model. He was down in El Paso pandering to the Hispanic vote and demonizing his opposition.

    The MFM will once again back Obama to the hilt. He sure can’t win based on his record in office, but they can paint any Republican challenger as mean, stupid, and crazy and turn off so many voters from the right and center that the lefties and union thugs will carry the day; exactly what happened in CA and NV last year.

    Comment by V the K — May 11, 2011 @ 3:10 pm - May 11, 2011

  5. I disagree as well. There has to be a credible alternate. Whomever the GOP ends up with has to withstand a total assault from the media, and has to be able to control the story and the narrative. I’m not sure that is even possible. I haven’t seen anyone who is running that can do that. And V the K has a great point about Harry Reid getting re-elected. Reid is really a pathetic person, and was just about the most beatable person around, but he still won. The big difference between Reid and Obama is that, for what I see in the polls, most folks still seem to like Obama despsite thinking that he really isn’t doing a good job. If Reid can be disliked and win a likable Obama is going to be hard to beat.

    Comment by Hunter — May 11, 2011 @ 4:54 pm - May 11, 2011

  6. The Argentine government needing cash a few years ago simply confiscated everyone’s private pensions and retirement accounts and announced that everyone was just getting the minimum fixed payout equivalent of their social security regardless of how much you had in your account. And their constitutional court backed the government’s confiscation without compensation of the accounts.

    There’s nothing in the law that actually protects the tax-status of your IRA, Roth, or even your tax-free government and municipal bonds. There’s also nothing that would prevent the Federal government from passing a near-confiscatory capital tax in investment accounts and stocks and bonds. Many states and local jurisdictions already have capital taxes on your investments and assets.

    FDR confiscated the Nation’s private gold in the 1930’s at less than 60-cents on the dollar to pay foreign debt-holders, and the US Supreme Court backed him on it. And the US Federal Reserve, which was supposed to protect the value of the dollar, has allowed the US dollar to erode 96% of it’s gold-backed value 100-years ago when the Fed was established to approx. 4-cents on-the-dollar.

    One way to payoff the Chinese and the US Social Security “trust fund” the trillions they’d owed over the next two decades is to allow inflation to eat away 50% or 75% of the US dollar’s current-face value…again. The current dollar is worth barely 25% of what is was worth in buying power when Pres. Ford was in office 35 years ago.

    Comment by Ted B. (Charging Rhino) — May 11, 2011 @ 5:32 pm - May 11, 2011

  7. There’s no doubt that liberals are worried about Obama’s re-election, despite what they’re saying. This should be an easy win for Republicans, but we can’t be too cocky. One wrong step, and he’ll be back in the WH for another term. We need a strong conservative, not a RINO, as our candidate.

    Comment by Right Hook — May 11, 2011 @ 6:55 pm - May 11, 2011

  8. I also feel that the state of the U.S. economy will play a big part in the next election. When citizens cannot find meaningful employment they will usually vote for a change in leadership.

    BTW. whatever happened to that young Obama cheerleader that stated on TV that “if I help Obama get elected, he will help me. So no worry about my mortgage or filling up my car with gas.” Any updates???

    Comment by Tony — May 11, 2011 @ 7:00 pm - May 11, 2011

  9. Obama is vulnerable, that much is for certain. However, with the current crop of GOP candidates I do not see any of them able to beat him yet. Perhaps that will change but right now, no I still think we may be stuck with Obama until 2016. At least that would give the GOP more time to find better candidates if they fail to do so by next year.

    Comment by John — May 11, 2011 @ 8:18 pm - May 11, 2011

  10. In related news, Obama Regime pressures banks to loan mortgages to minorities with bad credit. Yeah, because that scheme worked so well last time.

    Comment by V the K — May 12, 2011 @ 11:11 am - May 12, 2011

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