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Obama Knows: Hispanic vote key to 2012 election

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 1:00 pm - May 12, 2011.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

The president’s El Paso speech on immigration may have been, as Bryan Preston put it, “a flop,” but that blogger did note the real reason the Democrat traveled to the Lone Star State:  “He is pushing this issue now purely for politics. He is playing Hispanic voters for suckers while the national economy melts down, the way Nero played the fiddle while Rome burned.

Obama is making a major push for Latino voters.  They may well be the key to the 2012 election.  He hosted a group of Latino celebrities earlier this month at the White House, trying to shore up his support in a group with whom he has lost the level of enthusiasm he enjoyed in 2008:

Mr. Obama won 67% of Latino voters in 2008, compared with 31% for John McCain. Within the past year, however, Mr. Obama’s approval ratings among Latinos have slumped. In March, 54% of voter-aged Latinos polled said they approved of Mr. Obama’s job performance, down from 59% in February and far below the 82% peak in May 2009, according to a Gallup poll.

That 54% nearly perfectly matches John Kerry’s share (53%) of the Latino vote in 2004.  And given how Obama is slipping among non-Hispanic white voters, he’ll need to do better than that to maintain his majority in 2012.   The president is really in trouble if there is the same gap between his reelect number among Latinos and their approval of his performance as there is between the same numbers among all Americans.

Republicans also need do better among Hispanics as the husband of the woman born as Columba Garnica Gallo observes:

Hispanics aren’t monolithic, he says, but all immigrants—”the newly arrived and the second generation”—share one trait: “They’re aspirational.” Conservative candidates, therefore, should promote “policies that reward people who are aspirational.” That’s what he did, and 60% of Democratic Hispanic voters supported his re-election in 2002, he says. Hispanic voters are growing in number, Mr. Bush points out, and “they are increasingly the swing voters in the swing states.”

No wonder the Democratic incumbent is pressing so hard for their support.

UPDATE:  In his must-read column yesterday, Charles Krauthammer offers this insight about the president’s El Paso speech, “El Paso was simply an attempt to gin up the Hispanic vote as part of an openly political two-city, three-event campaign swing in preparation for 2012.

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12 Comments

  1. Daniel, Obama assumes that Hispanics are stupid. They’re not. Take a look at the border counties that are mostly Hispanic. They are the ones who are being subjected to rape, murder, drivce-by shootings and drug deals gone bad every day. And they understand that while Obama does nothing to make their neighborhoods safer, he is pandering to the very people that make their neighborhoods dangerous. A Hispanic living in El Paso understand that bullets fired from the Mexican side of the border that hit the El Paso City Hall could have just as well hit one of their children in the yard of their home.

    Obama came to Texas to pander for Hispanic votes, telling his almost totally lily white crowd what he thought they wanted to hear. He was wrong. Texas has seen a sismic shift in Hispanic politics. Two of the new Repbulicans sent to D. C. this January were Texas Hispanics, one from a district that encompases a huge section of the Texas/Mexican border.

    As to those “celebrities” that he met with at the White House; hell, they live in gated, policed communities and don’t have a clue what illegal immigration is doing in Hispanic neighborhoods in border counties. Perhaps they should give up their personal body guards and move to a colonia in Texas or Arizona to find out what it is really like to live with the problems that are bleeding over from a nation that is rapidly becoming a failed narco state.

    Comment by Mom Of A Gay Guy — May 12, 2011 @ 1:12 pm - May 12, 2011

  2. .
    .
    Just the other day a cowboy in Texas attended a social function where Barack Obama was trying to gather support for his Immigration Plan. The moment Mr Obama discovered the cowboy was from President Bush’s home area, he immediately started to belittle the guy by talking in a southern drawl and single syllable words.

    However, as he was doing that, Obama kept swatting at some flies that were buzzing around his head. Noticing the president’s plight, the cowboy said, “Y’all havin’ some problem with them circle flies?”

    Obama stopped talking to the crowd and said, “Well, yes, if that’s what they’re called, but I’ve never heard of circle flies.”

    “Well, sir,” the cowboy replied, “Circle flies hang around ranches. They’re called circle flies because they’re almost always found circling around the back end of a horse.”

    “Oh,” Obama replied as he goes back to rambling to the crowd. But, a moment later he stopped and bluntly asked, “Are you calling me a horse’s ass?”

    “No, sir,” the cowboy replied, “I have too much respect for the citizens of this country to call their president a horse’s ass.”

    “That’s a good thing,” Obama responded and began rambling on once more.

    After a long pause, the cowboy, in his best Texas drawl said,”Hard to fool them flies, though.”

    .

    Comment by Spartann — May 12, 2011 @ 1:43 pm - May 12, 2011

  3. Obama’s base is fractured; his black base is fractured; he’s lost Independents by the droves; the women vote is fractured, yet Obama believes he can pander to Hispanics? I don’t think they are the key. Obama must appeal to everyone. But all Obama’s appeal is for the Leftist Moonbat aspect of the Democrat Party; however, even they are mad at Obama!

    Comment by Sebastian Shaw — May 12, 2011 @ 3:05 pm - May 12, 2011

  4. God am I sick of hearing about the Hispanic vote. We’re so busy pandering to every dash-American voting block that we’ve forgotten all about the plain-American voter.

    What’s wrong with pols leading on what’s good for America? Why are newcomers (especially illegal ones) so much more f-ing important to the pols than citizens?

    Turning the country into a mishmash of warring ethnicities, faiths, sexualities, age groups, etc competing for fewer and fewer crumbs is a sure recipe for disaster. Someone tell me how I’m wrong.

    I read today that the percentage of black males with jobs is less than 60 percent(1). If that’s not a calamity in the making, I don’t know what is (not to mention the misery).

    Nevertheless, blacks are a sure-thing for the Dems so under the proverbial bus they go while Barry lines up a new client-group for the gubmint (sorry, Columba, but all immigrants are NOT aspirational). I recall seeing the other day that the percentage of Hispanic-headed household with kids that receive some sort of welfare was around 75 percent(2).

    (1) http://www.bet.com/news/national/2011/05/11/record-low-employment-rate-for-african-american-males.html

    (2) http://www.cis.org/immigrant-welfare-use-2011

    Comment by SoCalRobert — May 12, 2011 @ 5:56 pm - May 12, 2011

  5. This is a perfect example of why I hate labels. People get so engrossed with identity politics that they lose focus of what is actually important, to the detriment of the populace as a whole. Arizona’s SB1070 is an example of this. Opponents of SB1070 turned a legitimate issue into something about race. Municipal governments of cities that were not anywhere near the Mexican border and did not have the problems Arizona has as a result of illegal immigration were apparently so appalled that such a racist bill could be passed that they protested the state. Obama would probably be smart to focus on the actual issues as opposed to identity politics.

    Comment by Naamloos — May 12, 2011 @ 6:55 pm - May 12, 2011

  6. “Republicans also need do better among Hispanics”

    Actually, they are. According to CNN they vote in higher and higher numbers for Republicans each election:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/19/AR2010111905213.html

    I’d ask why we rarely/never hear about this but I believe it’s because the MSM LOVES writing about the monolith Hispanic vote that’s going to roll over Republicans and destroy them.

    Comment by Bobbie — May 12, 2011 @ 8:26 pm - May 12, 2011

  7. It is because, according to the Barack Obama Party and its luminaries like Harry Reid, people who vote Obama cannot be Hispanic.

    Hence, those who vote for Republicans cease to be Hispanic, so to the Obama Party media is always looking at this giant Hispanic wave that will overwhelm Republicans.

    This degree of self-delusion is why Obama Party members insist they never lose elections; they simply deny the existence of anyone who votes against them.

    Comment by North Dallas Thirty — May 12, 2011 @ 9:44 pm - May 12, 2011

  8. What Obama will do in order to be re-elected: Pander to minority groups and unions, dividing the country between those his administration favors and those whom they despise.

    What Obama will not do in order to be re-elected: Abandon his neo-Marxist economic policies in favor of policies that will improve American prosperity.

    Comment by V the K — May 12, 2011 @ 10:24 pm - May 12, 2011

  9. As the former observed the Hispanic community is not monolithic. True! But they live in enclaves to perpetuates elements of the native culture. This is not a criticism; it is an observable fact. My parents and I did when we migrated to the U.S Governor Bush enjoyed the Hispanic vote in his campaigns for governor, because the majority in Florida were, and still might be, cubans. They have consistently punished the Democrats for the Bay of Pigs fiasco. Mexicans present a different proble. The majority that are here were raised under regimes of the socialist PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institucional). With that thought in mind, subsidies, like the tortilla and health, and government owned industries like PEMEX (Petroleos Mexicanos), trumps family values and the Democrats are a natural fit for them. Central Americans are a divided group. Many of their countries have recently gone through civil wars in which one of the protoganist were dupes for Moscow and Havana. Those who fled to the U.S in fear of a communist takeover, usually vote Republican, those who fled for fear and doubts the commies could win usually vote Democrat.

    The Republican Party needs to have avaried outreach, no one size fits all.

    Comment by Roberto — May 13, 2011 @ 12:54 pm - May 13, 2011

  10. On a sort-of-related note: Remember that hack Democrat sheriff in Tucson who blamed the Tea Party for that nutjob who shot up a supermarket parking lot? His department shot a Marine to death after raiding the wrong house then tried to cover it up. Democrats… always scum… always.

    Comment by V the K — May 13, 2011 @ 3:09 pm - May 13, 2011

  11. Word omitted: comment 9 should read, As the former Governor. . .

    Comment by Roberto — May 13, 2011 @ 3:56 pm - May 13, 2011

  12. Ive said this elsewhere, but I predict that Obambam will dump Biden and pick a Hispanic and/or female running mate. Count on it.

    Comment by American Elephant — May 15, 2011 @ 3:42 am - May 15, 2011

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