Two new polls out, one which liberals believe slants Republican, another which tilts Democratic suggest that the president’s party may not be going into the 2012 election in as solid a position as a recent Huffington Post love letter to the Obama campaign suggests. It seems the White House is trying to create the impression that the incumbent is unbeatable in next fall’s election. And some media outlets eagerly repeat this talking point as if it were actual fact and not political spin.
Yet, the polls tell a different story.
Rasmussen finds that more Americans consider themselves than consider themselves Democrats:
Now, 35.6% of American Adults consider themselves to be Republicans, up from 34.8% in April. . . . The number calling themselves Democrats increased slightly from 33.5% in April to 34.0% last month.
A day earlier, the pollster found “that in a hypothetical 2012 presidential matchup, a generic Republican candidate earns support from 45% of Likely U.S. Voters” against 43% for President Obama. Given the tendency of undecided voters to break agains the incumbent, that’s a really bad number for the president.
In the latest CNN poll a survey which notoriously skews left, the pollster found that while the president enjoys a 54% approval rating, he’s underwater on his handling of all but three issues, including the economy where 58% disapprove, the federal budget deficit where 64% disapprove and Medicare where 53% disapprove. Given his party’s demagoguing the Ryan reforms, it’s interesting that in a poll which favors the Democrats, only 44% approve of the way he’s handling the popular government program. (I could not find the partisan breakdown in this poll).
Given that the three issues where the president is above water are all national security-related, I’m with John McCormack (who alerted me to the CNN survey), “the killing of Osama bin Laden is what’s propping up Obama’s poll numbers, how long can that last?”
If the economy continues to sputter, look for Obama’s approval to plummet. And the road to his reelection to look every steeper.
he and his ilk need to go. i just wonder if he’ll even make it to election day before the people throw him out. our economy is getting worse. what a horrible lesson the USA has learned about voting in someone such as this anti-american and his bunch.
In the 2008 election Obama got 53% of the popular vote and McCain got 46%. It seems to me that there are very few McCain voters who have been “won over” by Obama, but also a lot of Obama voters who have been horrified at what he’s done, and the distaste for Obama isn’t going to change because his behavior comes from his beliefs. I think it will be hard for him to be reelected.
Hi Dan,
Out of curiosity are these numbers up or down from before the Ryan budget proposal and the Medicare kerfuffle started?
I still do not see any Republican currently running who can beat Obama. 1 1/2 years is a very long time in politics though so I guess we shall see.
John, someone will rise to the occasion to meet Obama’s Marxism full throttle; the only thing that could sink a Republican is someone else running as an Independent to split the vote.
The worst-case scenario would be Donald Trump running as an Independent — which he now hints he may do.
He could end up playing spoiler in this election, because a lot of people like what he has to say. The most important objective HAS to be defeating Obama. Nothing else must be allowed to get in the way of that.
Any one of them could. The novelty of a token is gone, Hope & Change never happened, nobody likes anything he’s done, millions are unemployed, we’re ass loads in debt and the fear mongering just isn’t cutting it. He’s going to have to fall back on the old standard that the debt is actually good for us and we’re just to f*king stupid to understand. They’ll have to re-trot out the meme that economists all over the world support it and then refuse to name any of them. The People’s Economist (and former Enron adviser) Paul al-Krugman will be working his ass off spinning for the MTV Cribs candidate.