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As bad economic news becomes the rule, why do experts still find it so unexpected?

June 9, 2011 by B. Daniel Blatt

Finding this headline in Bloomberg News: “Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Increased Last Week”, Michael Barone, considering the surfeit of bad economic news, “at what point do the supposed experts start expecting bad economic news? You’d think they might be after the last two weeks.”

Indeed.

Filed Under: Economy, Media Bias

Comments

  1. Roberto says

    June 9, 2011 at 1:26 pm - June 9, 2011

    It´s because they believe in hope and change. In their myopia they can´t see that change has happened. Remember, Obama campaigned on hope and change and he was counting on his followers to visualize it from a positive perspective. Hope and change can be, ¨I beg your pardon, I didn´t promise you a rose garden.¨

  2. tommy651 says

    June 9, 2011 at 2:01 pm - June 9, 2011

    because the media exists to support the political agenda not inform the public. informing the public went south when the left got control of the schools of propaganda(journalism).

  3. alanstorm says

    June 9, 2011 at 2:26 pm - June 9, 2011

    “As bad economic news becomes the rule, why do experts still find it so unexpected?”

    Occam’s razor indicates that it’s because they’re mind-numbingly stupid. The probability that’s the correct answer approaches unity if the “experts” in question are associated with the current administration.

    C’mon, you got any difficult questions?

  4. North Dallas Thirty says

    June 9, 2011 at 2:31 pm - June 9, 2011

    Remember the Rapture dude and his followers a few weeks ago that were surprised when it “unexpectedly” didn’t happen?

    Same problem and mindset among Obama economists and the administration. Compound it with their belief that even thinking the Mocha Messiah might be wrong makes them an evil teabagging racist, and any negative news becomes clearly beyond their control — and therefore “unexpected”.

  5. Levi says

    June 9, 2011 at 3:11 pm - June 9, 2011

    Obama’s been implementing an economic policy that almost no one supports because he stupidly thought that he could befriend the Republicans and look good for the voters. I hope he loses over this shit, I really do. Obama understands absolutely nothing about the nature of his political adversaries, and is managing to give liberal economic policy a bad name despite him never having even attempted to implement liberal economic policy. The loan to the car companies has been his one good move, but that’s not nearly enough to make up for his handling of financial reform, unemployment, the housing market, the foreclosure disaster, etc.

    Obama falls for Republican traps and only ever finds himself engaging issues on their terms. It’s like he woke up in January 2009 with no recollection of how the Republican party operates. He’s been bending over backwards to appease a group who only wants to defeat him. I eagerly await the day he leaves office.

    (Which will be in 2017, because Republicans haven’t a chance in hell of beating him, even if the economy is still in terrible shape.)

  6. ILoveCapitalism says

    June 9, 2011 at 4:31 pm - June 9, 2011

    Over the past 8 decades or so, economics has become a corrupted profession. Government always wants to expand (remember your Founding Fathers quotes). Government endows university research, chairs, etc. and the grateful recipients come up with theories to justify government expansion. They also have the best connections to government (the revolving door), so they get the most media.

    Impressive titles and chairs, being able to publish, media, government money, government connections / access to power, the prestige of being powerful, etc. all build upon each other in a vicious circle to favor the academics who most consistently love government, the statists. It’s not a conspiracy; it’s a process of natural selection. (Survival of the ‘most statist’.) Climate science is one field which has been thus corrupted; economics is another.

    Since the theories they produce are statist and pro-government expansion, so are their recommendations. Since, however, statism is bad in reality, their recommendations then fail in reality – “unexpectedly”.

  7. ILoveCapitalism says

    June 9, 2011 at 4:35 pm - June 9, 2011

    (continued) So my answer to the question is: our statist, left-wing experts find the bad news “unexpected” because their theories are wrong… and their theories are wrong because they have vested interests in a wrong outcome, namely the continual expansion of government.

  8. ILoveCapitalism says

    June 9, 2011 at 4:43 pm - June 9, 2011

    As for Occam’s Razor: It does not state that the simplest explanation is usually right; rather, that the simplest explanation *which fits the facts* is usually right. Some of experts we’re talking about are intelligent by many conventional measures. But seemingly intelligent people can be blinded by their vested interests and the vested interests of the subculture with which they identify (government-sponsored academia).

  9. Sebastian Shaw says

    June 9, 2011 at 4:51 pm - June 9, 2011

    The so-called experts believe the hocus-pocus smoke & mirrors coming the Obama Administration.

  10. TGC says

    June 9, 2011 at 4:53 pm - June 9, 2011

    because he stupidly thought that he could befriend the Republicans and look good for the voters. I hope he loses over this shit, I really do.

    Yeah? So when the hell’s he gonna do it?

  11. TGC says

    June 9, 2011 at 5:20 pm - June 9, 2011

    The loan to the car companies has been his one good move,

    Really, what was so great about it?

    If other bidders were given a legitimate opportunity to top the $2 billion of government money on offer, this might have been a legitimate transaction. But they weren’t. A bid wouldn’t count as “qualified” unless it had the same strings as the government bid—a sizeable payment to union retirees and full payment of trade debt. If a bidder wanted to offer $2.5 billion for Chrysler’s Jeep division, he was out of luck. With General Motors, senior creditors didn’t get trampled in the same way. But the “sale,” which left the government with 61% of GM’s stock, was even more of a sham.

    If the government wanted to “sell” the companies in bankruptcy, it should have held real auctions and invited anyone to bid. But the government decided that there was no need to let pesky rule-of-law considerations interfere with its plan to help out the unions and other favored creditors. Victims of defective GM and Chrysler cars waiting to be paid damages weren’t so fortunate—they’ll end up getting nothing or next to nothing.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303745304576361663907855834.html

    No-bid auctions, huh? It violated the rule of law. Plus this is still gonna cost the taxpayers $14 billion and that doesn’t include covering the tax losses of $12-13 billion. And let’s not forget the lies we were expected to believe that this was the ONLY way to save GM and Chrysler was to funnel billions of taxpayer dollars into them to be kicked back later as “campaign donations” for the liberal criminal enterprise.

    So what the hell was so great about it?

    (Which will be in 2017, because Republicans haven’t a chance in hell of beating him, even if the economy is still in terrible shape.)

    Only 24% of Americans agree with Chairman Obama
    http://tinyurl.com/6y5asaz

    78 MILLION Americans could lose their healthcare coverage, despite promises to the contrary
    http://tinyurl.com/4yau7ga

    And only 30% think the country is headed in the right direction
    http://tinyurl.com/5hzc4c

    So please share with the class just how the hell Chairman Obama’s gonna win? Chicago liberal style voter fraud? Has he got a Sam Giancana in his pocket?

  12. V the K says

    June 9, 2011 at 5:31 pm - June 9, 2011

    The loan to the car companies has been his one good move

    Hurray for corporate welfare!

  13. The_Livewire says

    June 9, 2011 at 5:44 pm - June 9, 2011

    TGC, you’re asking Levi for facts.

    It’s as useful as asking me for marital advice.

  14. Heliotrope says

    June 9, 2011 at 8:12 pm - June 9, 2011

    The sun set unexpectedly this evening.

  15. joeedh says

    June 9, 2011 at 8:44 pm - June 9, 2011

    Everyone has a vested interest in economic optimism. Economic optimism can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, which is why everyone (from investors to the White House) pushes it. It’s a good way of keeping everyone motivated.

  16. V the K says

    June 9, 2011 at 9:41 pm - June 9, 2011

    Funny, I don’t remember the media pushing economic optimism when the unemployment rate under Bush was 4.7%

  17. B. Daniel Blatt says

    June 9, 2011 at 10:58 pm - June 9, 2011

    V, the Anchoress did a series of posts showing how, in the Bush era, the media always found a dark lining in all the silver economic clouds.

  18. The_Livewire says

    June 10, 2011 at 9:17 am - June 10, 2011

    V, the Anchoress did a series of posts showing how, in the Bush era, the media always found a dark lining in all the silver economic clouds.

    “Every silver lining has a dark, dark cloud;
    Always after sunshine comes the rain.
    They say that after night
    the dawn is sure to be bright;
    But don’t forget the night will come again.”
    –John de Lancie

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