Via James Pethokoukis at Reuters.com:
From Goldman Sachs today: We have lowered our forecast for US real GDP growth further and now expect real GDP to grow just 2%-2½% through the end of 2012. Our forecast for annual average GDP growth has fallen to 1.7% in 2011 (from 1.8%) and to 2.1% in 2012 (from 3.0%). Since this pace is slightly below the US economy’s potential, we now expect the unemployment rate to be at 9¼% by the end of 2012, slightly above the current level.
2. Even our new forecast is subject to meaningful downside risk. We now see a one-in-three risk of renewed recession, mostly concentrated in the next 6-9 months. There are three specific issues that concern us. First, a worsening of the European financial crisis, and a failure of European policymakers to respond adequately, could lead to a further tightening of financial conditions and credit availability, which would worsen the economic outlook globally. Second, our forecast assumes that the payroll tax cut—currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2011—is extended for another year, but if that failed to happen the fiscal drag in early 2012 would increase significantly. Third, increases in the US unemployment rate have historically had a tendency to feed on themselves, and this could happen again.
Pethokoukis makes this comparison to the 1980 & 1984 elections:
The consensus used to be that President Obama might be OK if the jobless rate fell below 8 percent by Election Day. That seems increasingly unlikely. The economy is, at best, in slow-growth mode, just churning and churning, creating few jobs. Comparisons to President Reagan’s 1984 “Morning in America” campaign are looking ever-more ridiculous. Under Reagan’s tax-cut driven recovery, unemployment fell from 10.8 percent in December 1982 to 7.2 percent by Election Day as the economy grew 4.5 percent in 1983 and 7.2 percent in 1984. In fact, Jimmy Carter’s 1980 campaign might be the better comparison. The unemployment rate jumped from 6.0 percent in December 1979 to 7.5 percent on Election Day 1980 as the economy shrank 0.3 percent.
All I know is that outside of the 4% unemployment rate of the DC Beltway, it is more like Mourning In America under the Obama regime.
-Bruce (GayPatriot)
1984 Reagan ad –
“It’s morning again in America. Today more men and women will go to work than ever before in our country’s history. With interest rates at about half the record highs of 1980, nearly 2,000 families today will buy new homes, more than at any time in the past four years. This afternoon 6,500 young men and women will be married, and with inflation at less than half of what it was just four years ago, they can look forward with confidence to the future. It’s morning again in America, and under the leadership of President Reagan, our country is prouder and stronger and better. Why would we ever want to return to where we were less than four short years ago?”
Anyone care to rewrite this one for Obama?
2012 Obama ad:
“Americans are mean. They voted for Bush so they deserve this massive unemployment that I’ve been unable to stop. Once this great nation has been ruined completely, then perhaps Socialism will finally take hold because the independent Americans will have no hope left. I’m Barack Obama, and I approved this message.”
I read somewhere that President Obama, at least superficially, to follow the 1984 Reagan campaign for his 2012 re-election; however, Reagan ran on his successful accomplishments which saw massive tax cuts & got rid of the Jimmay Carter stagflation through more repeal of other harmful laws.
On the other hand, President Obama is running away from his record; all Obama has left is demagoguery & class warfare. Therefore, I just don’t see Obama following the 1984 Reagan blueprint even on a superficial level.
Obama is drowning in the middle of the ocean due to his own job killing policies since he does not understand the free market system, yet he’s blithely unaware of the his own political dangers.
But Sebastian…. they all told me how SMART Obama was. Most intelligent President evah… or something.
Considering that the CPI has been designed to understate inflation (see http://www.shadowstats.com/ ), it may be that real GDP (inflation-adjusted GDP) has been going backward and we are already in another recession – just not admitting it.
Sure, Geena. I’ll have a go…
OBAMA VO: “It’s morning again in my country. Today more men, women, children, elderly, gays, lesbians, bisexuals, transgendered, black, hispanic, asian, pacific islanders and any other protected minority I may have yet to identify will go to work for exactly the same wage, and collect their daily allotment of food, than ever before in my administration’s history. With interest rates five times the record highs in 1980, nearly 2 families today be authorized by me to buy a new home, less than at any time in my nation’s history. This afternoon, I will authorize the civil unions of 6,500 people, including 30 or so bigamists, and with inflation at ten times what it was just four years ago, they can all look forward to with confidence to an egalitarian existence, the likes of which our role models could only dream of.
It’s morning again in my country, and under my leadership, our country is humbled, subservient, and equal. Why would we ever want to return to where we were less than four short years ago, when all of you mouth-breathers insisted upon destroying yourselves?”
Jobless rate only dipped this month (to 9.1%) because of people giving up the hope of work: http://hotair.com/archives/2011/08/05/jobless-rate-dips-to-9-1-117k-jobs-added-in-july/
Obama 2012 Slogan: “It’s still Bush’s fault.”
WHERE are the libs spewing their talking points?
Obama slogans, from a buddy of mine. (I wish I was this clever!)
– “There’s no economy, stupid.”
– “Borrowing a Bridge from the 31st Century.”
– “Read My Lips: Just New Taxes.”
– “Barack: still in Iraq, and now Libya, too.”
– “Mourning in America: the Counterrevolutionary Bourgeois.”
– “I know I suck but Clinton got swallowed.”
– “Are you better off than you were four years ago? Hahahahaha! Pwned!”
Well Obama has taken our AAA ball club down to AA.
A minor league president in a major league country.
Anyway the elders in the Democrat party go to Barack and Michelle and ask them to quit or not to run again?
Bill and Hill, Gore, Carter, Kerry, if they all go and tell him he’s made a hash of things, for the good of the country……for the good of the African American community…..
ILC, Cas: thanks for the answers as to where all this money went to. The bottom line, it seems, is that it’s not doing anything useful.
When I saw the headline for this post, GS Outlook Bodes Ill, my first thought was “what, Goldman isn’t giving any money to Obama this year?”
Just thinking of all those gay married couples wandering around in a bankrupt, impoverished, jobless wasteland… because it was so important to vote for the Democrat.
No worries, SCR. 🙂
I just don’t see how Obama gets re-elected since Republicans can effectively link the AA-downgrade to ObamaCare & Porkulus. Obama is the first POTUS to have the USA downgraded! How’s that hope & change working for you?
Because we’re up against the press, and people who the only AA and AAA they know are batteries.
At least we get a snappy comeback when O-bots say, “He killed bin Laden!” like the dolts they are.
Namely, “Yeah, but he trashed our credit rating.”
“Obama killed Bin Laden,” but then some else can say quite accurately, “Yeah, but Obama killed the economy.” In other words, no one will care about Bin Laden given the state of America at this time. So let Obama boast about Bin Laden; it just shows how small he is.
Even better: “Obama said OBL was irrelevant. Obama said it would be catastrophic if we lost our credit rating. So we’re supposed to praise Obama for killing someone irrelevant while he caused a catastrophe?”