While some in the mainstream media still think President Obama is the favorite in next fall’s presidential election, one statistic should be, well, sobering. According the most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, twice as many registered voters will vote against the Democrat than will vote for him:
Among registered voters, 46% say they will definitely not vote for Obama next year, while only 23% say they definitely will — a slight improvement over August’s results.
And this from a poll with a sample “with a sample tilted toward Democrats”. A recent McClatchy/Marist poll has an even higher number, “49 percent of voters” saying “they definitely plan to vote against Obama in 2012.” Not just that, the president’s numbers on the economy are in the tank:
His approval numbers on the economy are almost as bad, 32/64, and only 66% of Democrats approve, while 29% disapprove. Independents disapprove 26/69. Voters now give an edge to Republicans in Congress on economic leadership, 43/41, never a good sign for an incumbent President.
The current presumptive Republican frontrunner, Mitt Romney, has a huge advantage on this, the biggest issue on voters’ minds:
Quinnipiac asked respondents whether Obama or Mitt Romney would do better as the nation’s economic leader — and Romney wins by 10 points, 49/39, with indies giving him a 13-point edge, 49/36.
No wonder his team is trying to distract us by focusing on Republicans’ flaws (real, perceived and invented). If the 2012 election were a referendum on Barack Obama, the current opposition would win in a potentially realigning landslide.
UPDATE: Now, I’m not saying it’s a done deal for the GOP. The administration’s negative campaign could work. But, if we go by the WaPo/ABCNews numbers, Obama will have to win approximately 90% of the voters who aren’t yet definitely set on voting for (or against) him.
No, he can’t. Obama is going to try to shift the blame to evil Capitalists via class warfare, but I don’t think this will work. More second term presidencies is a referendum on the POTUS. Obama cannot escape this.
The media hasn’t started the hate campaign on Mittens yet. Look at Rick Perry. The MFM is more obsessed with a rock in Rick Perry’s past than all the terrorists, corrupt Chicago pols, and America-hating preachers in Obama’s past combined.
V, looks like you anticipated my next post!
And coincidentally, I spent part of the day writing about precognition.
Of course Obama can win, did we all forget what happened in 2010 when candidates like Christine O’Donnell got on the ballot? Castle would have easily won in New Hampshire but people don’t want to win, they wanted ideology.
I like winning, I want to win, I’m going to pick the candidate that has the best chance of winning.
I was hoping Obama would be in a better position because now people are going to start thinking…well Mitt Romney is a better general election candidate but since Obama is sinking like a stone, its easier to imagine the more ideological candidate winning.
Republican on the ballot is going to matter, regardless of how bad Obama is doing.
Well said, darkeyed, very well said (except Miss O’Donnell ran in Delaware not New Hampshire).
Oh right right, I forgot, Biden’s son had dropped out of the race cause he thought he would have to face Castle.
I saw that one coming.
Deja vu.
But the election is still a year away. Voters are hardening toward Dear Maximum Supreme Leader, but their minds are often made up in the late summer. so if Comrade is still underwater then, he is toast. Couldn’t avoid the terrible pun.