While some in the mainstream media still think President Obama is the favorite in next fall’s presidential election, one statistic should be, well, sobering. According the most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, twice as many registered voters will vote against the Democrat than will vote for him:
Among registered voters, 46% say they will definitely not vote for Obama next year, while only 23% say they definitely will — a slight improvement over August’s results.
And this from a poll with a sample “with a sample tilted toward Democrats”. A recent McClatchy/Marist poll has an even higher number, “49 percent of voters” saying “they definitely plan to vote against Obama in 2012.” Not just that, the president’s numbers on the economy are in the tank:
His approval numbers on the economy are almost as bad, 32/64, and only 66% of Democrats approve, while 29% disapprove. Independents disapprove 26/69. Voters now give an edge to Republicans in Congress on economic leadership, 43/41, never a good sign for an incumbent President.
The current presumptive Republican frontrunner, Mitt Romney, has a huge advantage on this, the biggest issue on voters’ minds:
Quinnipiac asked respondents whether Obama or Mitt Romney would do better as the nation’s economic leader — and Romney wins by 10 points, 49/39, with indies giving him a 13-point edge, 49/36.
No wonder his team is trying to distract us by focusing on Republicans’ flaws (real, perceived and invented). If the 2012 election were a referendum on Barack Obama, the current opposition would win in a potentially realigning landslide.
UPDATE: Now, I’m not saying it’s a done deal for the GOP. The administration’s negative campaign could work. But, if we go by the WaPo/ABCNews numbers, Obama will have to win approximately 90% of the voters who aren’t yet definitely set on voting for (or against) him.