In a post over at Hot Air, Tina Korbe cites a “new poll from the Institute of Politics at Harvard University” showing that millenials prefer the incumbent Democrat to a generic Republican by a margin of 35 percent to 29 percent. When it comes to specific candidates:
They’d pick Obama over Mitt Romney by an 11-point margin (37 percent to 26 percent) and over Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry by a 16-point spread (39 percent to 23 percent).
Nevertheless, the blogress adds, “poll experts suggest the results could mean what I’ve said for some time: An opening exists with millennials for any candidate willing to take advantage of it.”
What is striking about the poll is not that Obama is leading, but the percentage he garners among the group which gave him the largest margin of support in the 2008 election. In no poll does he comes close to the 66% he won in 2012. In fact, he doesn’t even muster a majority.
Let’s say those who didn’t register an opinion in the latest poll break evenly for the incumbent and the Republican challenger, that would give him a 53-47 margin over a generic Republican or a 55-45 margin over Mitt Romney. It would only be 59-41 over Gingrich or Romney. In any case, that represents a significant slide in his support since 2008.
We should also note that undecideds tend to break against the incumbent, so those numbers represent an optimistic scenario for the Democrat.
Seems Michael Barone was prescient about this poll: Under Obama, Millennials move into the GOP column.