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Presidential contest as volatile as that for Republican nomination?

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 4:18 am - March 2, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

Yesterday, Rasmussen released a “national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters” showing Mitt Romney

. . . with 40% support to 24% for the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania. This is Romney’s biggest lead to date and the highest level of support any GOP candidate has earned in regular surveying of the race. Two weeks ago, it was Santorum 39%, Romney 27%.

. . . .

In a one-on-one matchup, Romney now beats Santorum 50% to 38%. In the previous survey, Santorum was ahead of Romney 55% to 34%, the only time any challenger has led Romney nationally in a head-to-head match-up.

How quickly things change.  I have some sense that we might see similar volatility in the matchup of the eventual Republican nominee against the failed Democratic incumbent, with the president’s internal polls showing his strong support considerably softer than he would like.

In five surveys of registered voters from December 2010 to September 2011, Marist found the percentage of voters planning to definitely vote for President Obama stayed in a relatively narrow range (36-40) whereas those intending to definitely vote against him never fell below 40 and once reached as high as 49.

Rasmussen finds that Obama’s strong approval rating has not exceeded 28% since December 2010 while his strong disapproval, only occasionally falling below 35%, that is, he has a smaller base of dedicated supporters than he has of dedicated opponents.

Perhaps, that’s why he seems to be running scared — and particularly eager to demonize the opposition.



  1. It will depend on how well the MFM can spin the economy’s dead cat bounce as the Greatest Recovery of All Time.

    Comment by V the K — March 2, 2012 @ 6:21 am - March 2, 2012

  2. Dan, I suspect that whoever gets the nomination, the poll numbers will fluctuate quite a bit from then until election day. If it’s Romney, the poll numbers will have he and Obama taking turns with the lead. If it’s Santorum, the poll numbers will fluctuate, but with Santorum at best, getting close to the margin of error. But you never know. Should be interesting.

    Comment by Pat — March 2, 2012 @ 6:38 am - March 2, 2012

  3. […] Democrat’s internal poll show that his support is very soft, that he has a hard core base, perhaps as high as 40% who definitely plan on voting for him eight months hence.  And in the surveys showing him leading […]

    Pingback by GayPatriot » Have Obama’s internals shown weakening support among women? — March 5, 2012 @ 8:07 pm - March 5, 2012

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