See here, I’m going out on a big limb. I’m going to use my power of Sudoku-winning to cast my vote on how SCOTUS will rule on Obamacare. Just to be fair, I am a master at Sudoku and I use my skill of “if it can’t be THIS…it must be THAT” in order to chose my numbers. It is a combination of logic and realizing at some point that there’s no other alternative.
So here goes….
Chief Justice John Roberts hasn’t written an opinion yet this session. My Sudoku instincts say he’s going to write the Obamacare ruling. If that’s the case, it is going to be a BIG ruling. So if you accept that premise (which is debatable, of course), then here is how I think it will go down.
- Obamacare will be entirely overturned. If it was just the mandate, Roberts would leave Kennedy to writing it (or Scalia). But this is going to be a bigger decision.
- I believe there is a better than 60% chance that it will be a 6-3 decision, including Kennedy & (wait for it) Sotomayor. Again, if Roberts is writing the opinion that leads me to think that it will be a bigger than 5-4 ruling.
- Scalia hinted recently that in the much lauded ‘Commerce Clause’ case involving marijuana, he erred. I think that this is a hint that the Roberts Court is going to make a much broader ruling on the Commerce Clause itself which (demonstrated by Obamacare) threatens the very nature of the Federalist system that our Founders carefully crafted.
- The Arizona immigration ruling was interesting today. It didn’t so much say what Arizona was doing was unconstitutional, it said that a STATE doing those things was the problem. SCOTUS told the Obama Administration today, “Hey! Immigration is your deal and you aren’t doing your job. Do it, schmucks!”
- Keeping #4 in mind, I think the Roberts Majority will be consistent on Obamacare and say on Thursday: “Obama & Pelosi, you ignorant sluts! You can’t do this! Stick to what is the domain of the Federal Government and stop meddling in the affairs of individuals & States on matters you have no Constitutional authority to do so.”
So there it is. If I’m right — it is all right here for me to brag about for the rest of my life.
If I’m wrong, you can all laugh at me for 24 hours — and then after than no one will care.
UPDATE: I forgot #6 – I think another clue that this will be a major anti-Commerce Clause decision and that Roberts is the author due to the fact that they are holding it until the last day of the session. And if Roberts IS the author, due to seniority, it will be THE last case released on Thursday.