Last Thursday in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Obamacare ruling, CNN’s court conservative critic David Frum reassured his audience that repeal of the unpopular law “is a fantasy.” Frum himself fantasizes about Republican legislators’ “town halls filled with outraged senior citizens whose benefits are threatened”.
Um, David, senior citizens overwhelmingly oppose the law.
In the New Yorker, Ryan Lizza attempts to explain why Mitt Romney won’t repeal Obamacare, not believing the Republican “believe he will actually be able to overturn the law.” Guess both men want to reassure their followers that once Congress enacts a policy expanding government, that expansion is here to stay.
They neglect one important fact: never before in U.S. history has the U.S. House voted to repeal such significant legislation within a year of its passage. The law remains unpopular.
Not just that. Given the surge in Republican fundraising since the Supreme Court handed down its decision, Republicans know how much this issue motivates their base. Mitt Romney must understand that he can’t afford to offend his base early in his term.
Indeed, the campaign demonstrated as much with the release earlier today of this graphic:
Now, Mr. Lizza may claim that the Republicans will need 60 votes to overcome a Democratic filibuster in the Senate. But, some have argued with the Supreme Court declaring the law a tax, it can be repealed with a simple Senate majority “under the Budget Act’s reconciliation process.”
And even if that didn’t work, the 113th Senate will not only be far more Republican than the current one (should Romney win), but Democrats up in 2014, particularly from such states as Alaska (Mark Begich), Arkansas (Mark Pryor), Louisiana (Mary Landrieu), New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen), North Carolina (Kay Hagan), South Dakota (Tim Johnson), Virginia (Mark Warner)**, knowing how the issue could work against them, are unlikely to filibuster the repeal of an unpopular bill, the support of which will have cost most of their colleagues their seats.
—–
*If he wins, he won’t have a choice but to repeal the unpopular tax and regulatory scheme.
**I don’t include West Virginia’s Jay Rockefeller because he seems markedly indifferent to the concerns of his constituents.
FROM THE COMMENTS: Ryan offers another reason why Romney will act to repeal the unpopular legislation:
I also think that Romney recognizes our country’s fiscal situation is completely unsustainable with Obamacare (or without it for that matter). He has to repeal it if he is to have any hope of keeping the economy from going off the cliff.
I keep hearing how much this decision will motivate the base. What I haven’t see are poll numbers to show that result. Remember, an increase in $$$ donated does not equal actual new voters coming on board.
I must say that the most amusing part of this is that since SCOTUS has identified this as being a tax, the GOP could repeal with a simple majority in both Houses instead of needing 60 votes in the Senate. If that happens Democrats will completely lose their minds. I’ll have to start stocking up on popcorn now…
Of course this assumes that Romney wins and the GOP takes both Houses, none of which is a given.
I myself would like to see a powerful surge to Romney in the polls, but I think we are still at the point where people who might change their minds aren’t paying attention or at least making up their minds yet. It seems to me though that enthusiasm is still all on the Republican side, and the post-SCOTUS fundraising is a good example of that. Yes, that money will help the Romney campaign over the next few months, but fundraising also shows where the enthusiasm is, especially when there is a surge of small donors. Also, when I read some article in the MSM (say, on the Yahoo news page), the comments are dominated by people ripping the left-wing bias of the writer. You wouldn’t have seen that four years ago. I don’t doubt that about half the country still seems to be planning to vote for Obama, but the average Obama voter seems far less motivated than the average Romney voter. Obama will have to hope for good weather on November 6 because I don’t think Obama’s voters this time are going to be as motivated to go out in awful weather as Romney’s voters will be. It’s one thing to say you’ll vote for Obama when the pollster calls and another thing to go out and actually do it.
Just going by 2010, the Walker recall and personal anecdotes here in CA I don’t need to see a jump in the polls. I think if Romney keeps hammering this as a tax and also to talk about job creation. He will win and repealing obamacare is a promise he will keep.
It’s Romney’s to lose. He could lose it, but Obama does not have an edge. Because SCOTUS retained Obamacare, the economy will not get better in time to save the Dear Reader.
And the GOP could easily get to 50+ votes in the Senate. Lots of seats up for grabs – since, remember, 2006 was a huge Dem year. It all depends how much voters in 2012 will be like they were in 2010.
We need to remember that in the big picture, Big Government is in its death throes. It has finally run out of Other People’s Money (Thatcher). Unfortunately, the big picture is exactly that: big. Meaning that the death takes years to play out. After 8 decades of being philosophically dominant, lefties are well-ensconced in power. They are both able and willing to do a lot of damage to America, before they will give up power. The cornered, wounded, dying tiger is the most dangerous, and can take a surprisingly long time to die.
I hear idiot libs saying that ObamaCare can’t possibly be harming the country because small businesses with under 50 employees are exempt. This is exactly the kind of idiocy you expect from the economically ignorant.
1. According to Federal Guidelines, companies with up to 500 employees are classified as small businesses. Companies with 100-500 employees account for a lot of hiring when economic times are good and when the Government isn’t actively hostile toward business.
2. Suppose I am a business with 55 employees, I just got a substantial incentive to reduce my work force by 10%.
3. And here is the biggest, most economically illiterate and idiotic thing of all: You can’t make health insurance cover more people and more conditions without making it more expensive. It’s a mathematical impossibility. So, say I do have 100-500 employees, and I know my insurance is going to skyrocket because it has to cover pre-existing conditions (which is like being able to buy full coverage auto-insurance on a car you’ve just totaled), adult children up to age of 26, birth control, and a whole bunch of other mandated requirements. How can I afford to hire more employees?
Someone has to explain these economic realities to the American public.
I also think that Romney recognizes our country’s fiscal situation is completely unsustainable with Obamacare (or without it for that matter). He has to repeal it if he is to have any hope of keeping the economy from going off the cliff.
OK, if it is true that the leftywhore media and Democrats (one in the same, I know!), intimidated Chief Justice Roberts on the Obamacare ruling, some believe that they can do this to Mitt Romney.
I have some news for these people.
If they think that Mitt Romney is like Sen. John “F— You” McCain and a pushover, forget it.
Team Romney is going to run on this and follow through.
It will not and can not work no matter how hard they wish it to. Someone has to put the stake through the heart that is Obamacare. And we know now that it is Mitt Romney and the Republican party.
So stop whining about the past and those battles and fight to get Romney in the White House, larger GOP majority in the House and take the senate.
Really? So you think having put some “skin in the game,” in the form of hard-earned money isn’t a pretty good motivator to get your ass to the polling place? You keep clinging to that hope, pumpkin.
VtheK: I wonder if businesses could split up their operations into smaller companies of say, 50 or less workers to avoid all of this? I could see some of them trying to skirt the new law in this manner