Wonder what the RealClear average of polls would show if they weeded out all surveys giving Democrats a greater advantage than they enjoyed in the 2008 election:
The 2008 national exit poll sample, taken when Hopenchange fever was at its zenith, was 39D/32R/29I, or D+7. This one, after three years of Obamanomics dreck, is somehow D+11 if you include leaners and D+12(!) if you don’t. Anyone feel like taking these results seriously?
So, wrote Allahpundit in analyzing the latest NBC/WSJ poll. (Read the whole thing for some solid analysis, e.g., even in this skewed sample, Obama’s negatives are higher than Romney’s.) “The quarter-century trend (1984 through 2008) has seen an average Democratic turnout edge of 3 points,” observed Jay Cost in his recent piece wondering if polls were skewed toward the Democrats, “39 percent Democratic to 36 percent Republican.”” He’s expecting “something roughly similar this time around.”
Adjusting the NBC/WSJ poll to meet those expectations, we start with the polls partisan breakdown (including leaners) of 46D/35R. The poll has Obama up 49 to Romney’s 43. So, we’ll subtract 7* from Obama’s 49 to get 42. We’ll add 1** to Romney to put him at 44, giving him a 2-point edge over Obama.
Should the turnout reflect that of 2010 where both parties were at 35, Mr. Romney’s advantage would grow even more.
Interesting also to note that this poll’s showing Romney’s favorable/unfavorable underwater at 35/40 means than one-quarter of Americans still haven’t made up their minds about the presumptive Republican nominees. One hundred million dollars of relentless attack ads has not turn these voters off to Romney.
ADDENDUM: When I checked the .pdf of the poll, I could not find the breakdown by partisan affiliation so we don’t know how independents are voting.