For the better part of this year, the president has enjoyed a sometimes small and sometimes significant lead in most surveys. And while most polls show him ahead of his Republican rival, only a handful have shown him at or near 50%, a danger sign for an incumbent.
I have long speculated that his support may be particularly soft. Four months ego, looking at the NJ/Allstate poll, Ed Morrissey found this tidbit in the NJ/Allstate poll, “Even with a skewed sample with an eight-point advantage for Democrats, only 27% of men and 32% of women say they will definitely vote for Obama in 2012, and only 31% overall.”
Could the Obama campaign’s internals show something similar, support not strong, but quite soft, with fewer than 40% of Americans certain to vote for the Democrat’s reelection? On Sunday, commenting on news about the significant sum the Obama team has spent on polling, I observed:
Even though the incumbent has generally enjoyed a slight edge in polling over his presumptive Republican rival in the race for the White House, he has not been campaigning as the frontrunner and does not seem confident on the campaign trail.
Earlier today, on Investor’s Business Daily, Andrew Malcolm offered something similar, questioning the “conventional wisdom”, i.e., the suggestion that “the real political battle these next 102 days is for a slim middle of self-defined, so-called independents“:
But is this perhaps a false deadlock? There’s a growing suspicion among conservatives — and a latent fear among Obamaphiles — that another significant bloc of voters is hidden like double agents within the Democrat’s camp.
These are voters who still say they support Obama with apparent conviction, much like those Wisconsin voters last month who so badly skewed the recall’s exit poll results by saying, you betcha, they voted the union way against Gov. Scott Walker. But, in truth and in secret, they did not.
. . . .
The remaining loyal Obama supporters are so invested in their guy they’re reluctant to turn on him publicly, to admit they were wrong or naively misled by a Chicago machine pol. But they are genuinely, if clandestinely, disappointed in his lack of performance and leadership, his stunningly harsh rhetoric for a professed uniter, and are susceptible to changing their secret vote. Or maybe simply staying home on Nov. 6.
Note sure if he’s right, but there are signs suggesting a significant softness among Obama’s supporters.