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No evidence Ryan selection hurts Republican ticket

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I’ve been working on a post contesting that “conventional wisdom” (as presented in at least two Washington, D.C.-based publication by quoting anonymous Republican strategists) that Mitt Romney’s choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate all but dooms the GOP ticket to certain defeat this fall.

My basic argument is that this notion is bogus, primarily because most Americans recognize that we need do something about the debt — and thus will not immediately reject his budget plan.  Not just that, the House Budget Committee Chairman can express himself (and defend his plan) quite well — even without a teleprompter.  As Seth Mandel put it on Commentary’s blog:

Joining the ticket means Ryan will be at full volume, speaking directly to the voters. A poll last week found popular support for Ryan’s budget after it was described in positive terms. If Ryan has the chance to frame the debate about his budget, Democrats may find the Obama campaign’s demagoguery less effective than they think.

Moreover,  you can’t really analyze this particular vice presidential nominee with traditional metrics.  His real test will come when he speaks later this month to the Republican convention in Tampa.

That said, early signs (while not conclusive) suggests Ryan helps more than he hurts, with the GOP base energized and donating money at a breakneck pace to the Romney campaign, the Wisconsin Congressman’s favorability rising and Gallup showing Romney polling better in a matchup against Obama (than he was last week).  From Gallup’s home page:

Now this could just be statistical noise, but so far there’s no evidence that Ryan is hurting the Republican ticket.

Comments

  1. No matter who Mittens chose, the response from the MFM and their Democrat allies would have been the same. “Worst pick evah! Romney just handed us the election.”

    You can’t let those liars rattle you.

  2. Ryan will aid the ticket in the Midwest. The big question is Florida. Will he aid or hurt the ticket? Seniors tend to vote more Republican than the electorate, and if Ryan explains the Medicare situation, he will get Florida into the GOP column.

  3. V, exactly. The lefty media wants to depress anti-Obama turnout by running story after story about the supposed inevitability of their guy’s win… same trick they pull for their candidate, in every election.

  5. Sobering, yet great summary of what conservatives and Republicans are up against this year.

    Critical paragraphs:

    This is an UnAmerican campaign. It is an Anti-American campaign. It is a campaign by those who hate and fear what America was and who resent having to care about anyone outside their own group. Its group jingoism, its dog whistles and special privileges are repulsive and cynical, treating the people of a great nation like a warren of rats eager to sell each other out for a prize from the Cracker Jack box of identity politics entitlements.

    There is not a single Obama voter anywhere in the land who believes that another four years of him will make this country better. Not a single one from coast to coast. No, what they believe is that he will make the country a worse place for those people that they hate. That he will have four more years to sink their ideas deeper in the earth, regardless of how many families go hungry and how many fathers kill themselves because they can no longer take care of their families. What they believe is that Obama will grant their group more special privileges and the rest of the country can go to hell.

    That is exactly it. The more you read that, the more you see our liberal trolls, the gay and lesbian community, the Obama Party leadership, and everything “progressive”.

  8. If Ryan explains the Medicare situation to seniors? what does that mean? The old – oh, these changes won’t happen to those of you currently on Medicare? rriiiiiiiiiiight….