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University of Colorado Study Predicts Romney Win

Posted by Bruce Carroll at 10:40 pm - August 23, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

I wanted to get this up on the blog last night when I first saw it.  But I was making sure all of the details for the relaunch of the radio show were set.  So apologies for the delay on this.

This study from University of Colorado suggests a relative Electoral College landslide for Romney with him getting 317 out of 535 Electoral College votes, including all of the major swing states including Pennsylvania.

An analysis from the University of Colorado that has correctly predicted the outcome of presidential elections since 1980 is forecasting Mitt Romney as the frontrunner, with voters in Colorado helping the presumptive Republican nominee unseat President Barack Obama.

Political science professors Kenneth Bickers, of CU’s Boulder campus, and Michael Berry, of CU’s Denver campus, found that the ailing economy spells trouble for the president’s re-election bid. The professors conduct a state-by-state analysis, incorporating economic data such as unemployment figures.

The results of their analysis show that Obama will win 218 votes in the electoral college, short of the 270 that he would need to be re-elected.

While their study focuses on the electoral college, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote compared to 47.1 for Obama when considering only the two major political parties.

What I found most interesting about this study, something I also mentioned on the BlogTalkRadio show tonight, is that my observation of national polls since Spring seems to suggest Obama can’t make it over 47%.  And this study seems to suggest that’s where he might be stuck on Election Day as well.

Supplementing this study is a new FOX News Opinion Poll out tonight of Likely Voters shows a significant gap in enthusiasm between Romney supporters and Obama supporters.  This is the first time FOX News has used the “likely voters” model in their polling so far in this campaign.

The poll shows Romney supporters are more enthusiastic. By an 11 percentage-point margin the challenger’s backers are more likely to be “extremely” interested in the election, and by 10 points they’re more likely to think it’s “extremely” important their candidate wins.

So it will all come down to WHO votes on Election Day.  There is a good chance that Obama might be lucky to even reach 47%….. in my often-wrong and humble opinion.

-Bruce (GayPatriot)

GayPatriot’s America Radio Program – TONIGHT at 9PM ET

Yeah, I’m going to re-re-relaunch the BlogTalkRadio show, GayPatriot’s America, tonight. The topic tonight will be a preview of the 2012 Republican National Convention.

I’m pleased to have a special guest, Zac Moffatt who is the Digital Media Director for the Romney Presidential campaign. Zac will be calling in about 9:05PM ET.

At 9:30PM, my next guest Sarah Rumpf will join me. Sarah blogs at www.sunshinestatesarah.com and can be found on Twitter at @rumpfshaker. Sarah is a Florida native and we will compare notes about Tampa and the RNC.

The GayPatriot’s America radio show begins at 9PM and I’ll talk about my pending trip to Tampa where I’ll be covering the RNC on the ground.

Please tune in tonight!

UPDATE: The show is available on iTunes.  Also, you can listen via the player right below!

Listen to internet radio with GayPatriot on Blog Talk Radio

-Bruce (GayPatriot)

Legacy media to make skinny dipping a campaign issue?!?!?

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 5:18 pm - August 23, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election,Media Bias

The ancient Greeks exercised in the nude.  A good number of those of us, including yours truly, while at summer camp, who went skinny dipping in isolated lakes or near hidden riverbanks in the upper Midwest and northern New England.  In cities across the country, there are (or used to be as late as the 1980s) male health clubs with swimming pools where members were not permitted to wear suits.

And, as I understand it, the YMCA used to offer swimming instruction in the nude.  And none of this was sexual.

So, I’m trying to figure out why people are making much of a Congressman going skinny dipping in the Sea of Galilee.  He did this at night and there were no children present.  “One would think“, writes Allison Kaplan Sommer in the Israeli daily Haaretz,

. . . that the FBI would have enough on its plate, what with keeping an eye on both international terror groups plotting attacks and crazy homegrown terrorists who decide to shoot up movie theaters and college campuses.

But no – apparently, the U.S. intelligence had enough time on its hands to delve into the important national security threat posed by drunken congressmen [Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.)] and their staffers frolicking in the Sea of Galilee late at night after a “long, hot day” of meetings and briefings in Israel and the Palestinian Authority on a trip that took place a year ago.

Such goings-on were also important enough, once leaked, to be thoroughly covered by the web site Politico, which broke the shocking story of the swim and the investigation. . . .

This seems to be an issue more on the minds of politicos and Yoder’s ideological adversaries than the Congressman’s constituents.   (more…)

David Lampo on the GOP & “gay rights”

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 4:58 pm - August 23, 2012.
Filed under: Freedom,Gay America,Gay Conservatives (Homocons)

Reader MV passed along this interview David Lampo gave on Republicans and gay rights:

Having received a review copy of David’s book, A Fundamental Freedom: Why Republicans, Conservatives, and Libertarians Should Support Gay Rights, earlier in the summer, I read it and had mixed feelings. Perhaps, I should take the time to write a more formal review.

Lampo does a good job of debunking notions of anti-gay attitudes in the Tea Party, but at times, repeats the gay left narrative about Republican intolerance.

That said, if you have a moment, give the video a watch.

Democrats use Todd Akin to scrape the bottom of the barrel

Instead of covering the dire economic situation our nation is facing, ” the media,” Jennifer Rubin writes, “following like lemmings behind the Obama parade, are still fixated on Todd Akin.”  It’s not just that they’re fixated on Todd Akin, it’s that they’re eager to tie the Republican Party to the Missourian, conveniently forgetting that nearly every prominent Republican has criticized his crazy comments on rape, the candidates himself contending he misspoke and having apologized.

Mrs. Boxer accused her partisan opponents of a “sickness” and not liking their mothers.  And no one is calling the three-term Senator to apologize nor attempting to tie her fellow partisans to her.*

Our media, however, are obsessed with Akin, with “the three news networks – ABC, CBS, and NBC – [giving] Akin’s gaffe four times the coverage they gave to Vice President Joe Biden’s overtly racist comments last week in Virginia.” Let’s see . . .  one is the elected Vice President of the United States and the other is a candidate for elective office from a state with just 2% of the nation’s population.  And the candidate’s gaffe gets more coverage.

How many episodes of his show did Piers Morgan devote to Biden’s gaffe?

It’s not just the networks.  The Associated Press reports:

Meet the newest campaign issue for House Democrats: Todd Akin.

From Colorado to New Hampshire to Illinois, Democrats already are using the incendiary comments about rape made by the Missouri congressman and Republican Senate candidate as a political bludgeon.

(Via HotAir headlines.)  They’ve even attacked Republicans who have asked for Akin to exit the race.

In many ways, the Akin affair says more about the Democrats than it does the Republicans.**  It shows their desperation in this campaign and their determination to use whatever issue at their disposal to demonize Republicans. (more…)

Dem Convention to mirror GOP’s 1992 “Family Values” affair?

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 3:20 am - August 23, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election,American History

Whichever party focuses on social issues in this fall’s campaign will lose the fall election.

The title came to mind as I was scrolling through Glenn Reynolds’s posts and caught this, “WHAT HATH AKIN WROUGHT? Democratic Convention To Become Celebration of Abortion Rights“:

With an eye on Rep. Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” comments and the GOP’s mad dash away from the sinking Missouri Senate candidate, the Democrats are turning their upcoming presidential convention into a pro-choice assault on the Republicans with the help of major abortion supporters.

Just as the Akin crisis was reaching a crescendo, the Democrats on Wednesday announced that three starlets of the pro-choice movement will be featured at the convention, an event that will now drive the liberal charge that the Republicans are anti-women.

The people for whom abortion is the defining issue of the campaign have already made up their minds.  If they’re pro-choice, they’re with Barack Obama and the Democrats.  If they’re pro-life, they’re with Mitt Romney and the Republicans.

If the Democrats focus on abortion at their convention, the American people will wonder why they’re focused on social issues at a time of economic uncertainty.  As many wondered in 1992 why the GOP focused on family values when the economy was no longer booming as it had been since Reagan’s reforms kicked in in 1983.

UPDATE:  ED Morrissey asks if the the Democratic convention will be an “Abortion-palooza“:

With the recent face-plant of Todd Akin in Missouri, Democrats think they have hit on a winning theme for their convention in Charlotte. (more…)

Defining Image of Presidential Campaign/Obama’s Career?

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 3:18 am - August 23, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

Caught this on Tuesday and just had to share it:

Via Instapundit who links Ed Driscoll’s commentary.  Ed, in turn, cites Ace who has dubbed it, “The Photo of the Year“, adding the “perfect” caption to it:

“I am new enough on the national political scene that I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views.”

– Barack H. Obama, The Audacity of Hope