I wanted to get this up on the blog last night when I first saw it. But I was making sure all of the details for the relaunch of the radio show were set. So apologies for the delay on this.
This study from University of Colorado suggests a relative Electoral College landslide for Romney with him getting 317 out of 535 Electoral College votes, including all of the major swing states including Pennsylvania.
An analysis from the University of Colorado that has correctly predicted the outcome of presidential elections since 1980 is forecasting Mitt Romney as the frontrunner, with voters in Colorado helping the presumptive Republican nominee unseat President Barack Obama.
Political science professors Kenneth Bickers, of CU’s Boulder campus, and Michael Berry, of CU’s Denver campus, found that the ailing economy spells trouble for the president’s re-election bid. The professors conduct a state-by-state analysis, incorporating economic data such as unemployment figures.
The results of their analysis show that Obama will win 218 votes in the electoral college, short of the 270 that he would need to be re-elected.
While their study focuses on the electoral college, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote compared to 47.1 for Obama when considering only the two major political parties.
What I found most interesting about this study, something I also mentioned on the BlogTalkRadio show tonight, is that my observation of national polls since Spring seems to suggest Obama can’t make it over 47%. And this study seems to suggest that’s where he might be stuck on Election Day as well.
Supplementing this study is a new FOX News Opinion Poll out tonight of Likely Voters shows a significant gap in enthusiasm between Romney supporters and Obama supporters. This is the first time FOX News has used the “likely voters” model in their polling so far in this campaign.
The poll shows Romney supporters are more enthusiastic. By an 11 percentage-point margin the challenger’s backers are more likely to be “extremely” interested in the election, and by 10 points they’re more likely to think it’s “extremely” important their candidate wins.
So it will all come down to WHO votes on Election Day. There is a good chance that Obama might be lucky to even reach 47%….. in my often-wrong and humble opinion.