He’s been gaining on the president for the past week and is now even with his rival in Gallup’s daily tracking which includes three days of surveys after the release of the 47% video:
Most striking is the decline in Obama’s approval; he’s now below water. And he seems stuck at 47%.
UPDATE: Commenting on this poll, the Washington Examiner’s Charlie Spiering quips, “Looks like Mitt Romney was right. . . .today’s Gallup poll shows President Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 47 percent.”
Media trumpeting notwithstanding, this race is far from over. If these trends continue, we will certainly have a new narrative next week.
Dan,
With all due respect, I don´t think Gallup is the best indicator. He refelcts the popular vote. Yesterday Bret Baier on Fox´s Special Report showed polls by Clear Politic and the story is not positive. In swing states, Ohio, and Florida Obama now leads by 5, and in Virginia by 7. Popular votes don´t necessarily elect presidents, vis a vis the election of 2000. Gore won the popular vote but all important Florida was ruled to have been won by Bush. It´s the Electoral College and in this Obama is closer to 270 than Romney. I wish it were the other way around. But, as I stated in a previous thread, Obama has a ¨likeability ¨ factor of 57%, in spite of all his other negatives, to Romney´s 39% and that´s what he´s counting on to thrust him into another four years.
I´m hopeful that the Romney campaign will get some teeth. May Romney needs to shake up his staff. Maybe he should hire Karl Rove. He´s made so many observations and suggestions, even his Democratic co-hort, Joe Trippi, offered suggestions, as has Pat Caudell, Democrat who doesn´t want to see Obama re-elected.
I am finding the need to ignore these daily polls – gives me heartburn. I am hoping that a majority of Americans want to stay that way and not become Europeans. Also hoping that of those who want to suck at the teat of government – many are too lazy to be registered to vote.
By Andy Sullivan
WASHINGTON | Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:52pm EDT
(Reuters) – President Barack Obama maintains a lead of 5 percentage points over Republican Mitt Romney as he solidifies his advantage in the U.S. presidential race, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Thursday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/20/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88I1E920120920?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews
Of course it’s just a statistical coincidence that Obama’s support is at 47-Percent.
Is Obama ahead in any poll that doesn’t oversample Democrats? And I ask that as someone who doesn’t actually care about polls, and who thinks Romney is toast.
It does strike me that if a Democrat had as terrible a two-week period as Romney has had and still was within the margin of error, the MFM (the propaganda ministry of the DNC) would be swooning about his masterful political skill and his unwavering public support.
Rusty, Reuters oversamples Democrats.
BDB, which pollsters should be considered reliable, non-biased ?
Why trust any polls? Is it really that important that some percentage of the idiots in this country agree with you?
“7.BDB, which pollsters should be considered reliable, non-biased ?”
Pardon me for stepping in here (I know the questions weren’t directed at me) but I’d answer your questions thusly:
Reliable? Rasmussen has been the most accurate in the past several Presidential elections.
Non-biased? None of them.
Thank you AF
I don’t see why polls should matter to me, individually. Whether something is right or wrong, true or untrue, isn’t based on getting a majority to think so.
If I were employed by a campaign, I’d certainly be digesting and dissecting these poll numbers. But as a citizen, they don’t affect me, there’s nothing I can do about them, so I don’t get worked up about them.
“Most striking is the decline in Obama’s approval; he’s now below water. And he seems stuck at 47%.”
RCP Average Obama +3.1–Obama (D) 48.3 Romney (R)45.2; Rasmussen Tracking Obama +2
“Most striking is the decline in Obama’s approval; he’s now below water. And he seems stuck at 47%.”
RCP Average 9/11 – 9/20 — — Obama (D) 48.6 Romney (R) 44.7 Obama +3.9
Rasmussen Tracking 9/18 – 9/20 46 45 Obama +1
““Most striking is the decline in Obama’s approval; he’s now below water. And he seems stuck at 47%.””
Gallup Tracking 9/16 – 9/22 48 46 Obama +2