So today’s CNN/ORC poll has Obama’s lead cut in half, to three points [from their previous poll which gave Obama a six-point lead]. Does that mean that Romney is surging? Not really. It means they didn’t call quite as many Democrats. This time, the pollsters gave us the partisan breakdown of their sample: D-37%, R-29% and I-34%. So when the partisan gap in the sample narrowed from D +12 to D +8, Romney did three points better. Well, yeah.
With Republican voters far more enthused about voting this year than they were four years ago and with Democrats not nearly as excited today as they were in the Year of Hope and Change, Ace asks, if Obama [is] really going to enjoy another 2008, with a +8 turnout advantage, a partisan margin one point more Democratic than it was in ’08.
Yeah, Democrats may well have an advantage this fall, but, it will more likely be about 2 to 4 points rather than 7 or 8. A 3-point Democratic advantage would turn Obama’s three-point advantage in the CNN/ORC poll to a 2-point disadvantage.
Not only does this poll show a trend toward Romney, but it also provides some indication that the race may not be playing out according to the “Conventional Wisdom.”