In the past two days, we’ve seen a spate of polls challenging the conventional wisdom that President Obama has built up an insurmountable lead over Mitt Romney. Each of these three polls POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll, the CNN poll and the NBC/WSJ poll, showed Obama’s margin diminishing compared to its previous survey.
And there was one poll, the United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll showing the race tied at 47. Like the Battleground and CNN surveys, this poll also shows Romney carrying independents, leading them by “49 percent to 41 percent”, the same 8-point margin CNN found. Ace notes that the survey was D+7, meaning that it forecasts a turnout nearly identical to the 2008 election.
Two things to note, as the election approaches, voters seem to be drifting away from Barack Obama and independents seem to be breaking toward Mitt Romney.
Perhaps, this Rasmussen data point that Drudge highlighted on Monday may be more significant than the top-line poll numbers:
This is definitely not over.
The fact that supposedly only 9% of people called actually participate in polls should make everyone question the veracity of polls. A lot of the times, the poll sample partisan breakdown is crazy. Perhaps pollsters that believe Democrats will match their 2008 7-point advantage are right. But I doubt it. In any case, people should not assume the polls are so trustworthy that it dissuades them from bothering to vote.
Even worse. The only time we have ever been polled was this election cycle about a month ago. The pollster wouldn’t ask me any question, he only wanted to talk to a voter age 18-29. So I gave the phone to my 20YO autistic son. He works 20+ hours a week while attending college averaging 13 hours a semestzer so he is high functioning. Anyway, my son who is very black and white, right and wrong, no middle ground would not answer the pollster because he doesn’t think his views are anyone else’s business. He has always been conservative, perhaps even more than I. After watching the union upheaval in Wisconsin, I doubt he will ever vote for a Democrat. So I am wondering how many other kids his age have been totally turned off by the Dems over the last four years and could this indicate another landslide like 2010. Because young people are adversely affected by high gas prices, escalating food and insurance costs, and usually do not have a cushion of savings to fall back on. My son saved almost all of his high school grad money only buying a desk chair. He has since doubled his savings by depositing most of his paychecks into savings. But I guarantee he is not a typical college kid. The 18-29YO demographic has high unemployment and few opportunities in Obama’s America and I think they will either break for Mitt (love that Mittmentum) or they will stay home. There is truly no reason for them to rush out and vote for the status quo.
“Perhaps, this Rasmussen data point that Drudge highlighted on Monday may be more significant than the top-line poll numbers:
“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. ”
“RCP Average 9/25 – 10/2 — — 49.3 45.9 Obama +3.4
Rasmussen Tracking 9/30 – 10/2 3.0 49 47 Obama +2
Gallup Tracking 9/25 – 10/1 2.0 50 44 Obama +6
It’s obvious how the MSM is setting this up. If Romney wins this debate, it’s because his “technique” was better. They will focus on his technique, thereby distracting attention from the content of what he says.
They are taking this tack, of course, because Obama cannot possibly win on substance. Therefore, it all has to come down to style.
Morons who think political elections are spectator sporting events will, of course, fall gullibly into line.