Among the reasons conservatives cites for their skepticism about recent polls is that many show Romney winning independents, often by a decisive margins, even as they show Obama ahead overall. Bear in mind that in 2008, independents broke for Obama by 8 points, 52-44.
Yesterday, I cited two polls showing that margin flipped, both the most recent CNN and National Journal surveys showed Romney ahead by 8 among independents. Yahoo! is now headlining this report, but attempting to spin it as a pox on both political parties.
If current voter registration trends continue, both the Republican and Democratic parties may have a serious numbers problem.
Since President Barack Obama was elected in November 2008, the number of voters registered as independents or with a third party has surged in several key states, while those registered with both major parties have dropped off significantly. Among the six battleground states that provide monthly voter registration data (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania), all but the Buckeye State report more independent voters than four years ago.
Yahoo!’s Chris Moody does at least report that “A closer look at the data in these states also shows that Democrats appear to be losing registered voters the fastest.” Another reason thus to question poll samples skewed toward the Democrats.
Long and short of it is this, this surge in independents makes Romney’s lead among independents most significant.
Still, some advice from Instapundit readers is warranted: “Don’t get cocky kid.”