The top line number of the new new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll shows President Obama’s lead dwindling down to one point over Mitt Romney, but it’s the internals that call the Democrat’s lead into question. Over at Breitbart, John Nolte found that Romney’s lead among independents was twice that Obama enjoyed in the 2008 election.
Obama’s firm re-elect number on Q6 is only 46% with just four weeks to go before the election — and again, mostly from before the debate. That’s a low number for an incumbent at this stage of the race, as undecideds usually break hard for the challenger.
That’s even more true when one takes into consideration the sample breakdown in this poll. It has a D/R/I of 38/30/32, for a D+8. That’s more Democratic than 2008′s D+7, which took place in a cycle with much more Democratic enthusiasm than this poll demonstrates. If Obama trails in a D+8 poll by 6 among the extremely likely voters with four weeks to go, he’s in deep trouble — and his debate performance certainly won’t boost him.
If we just adjusted to a model based on the 2008 turnout, that would erase Obama’s insignificant advantage. And when we adjust to a more likely D+2 to D +4 turnout, we see Romney moving into the lead.
No wonder Democrats are panicking.