Ed Morrissey just makes a conservative blogger’s job easier, particularly if that conservative blogger lives on the West Coast. By the time you get to your morning blog read, it’s sometimes early afternoon on the East Coast — or mid-day in Morrissey’s Minnesota. And he has already teased out the important details in the latest polls.
This morning, he cites two numbers in Rasmussen’s tracking poll which may well be more significant than the top line number showing Romney up 3:
The internals look pretty good for Romney, too, in this latest iteration. He has a 10-point lead among independents at 49/39, the latter a disastrous number for an incumbent just four weeks out from the election.
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Moreover, Romney now leads by six among those “certain” of their vote, at 46/40. The soft numbers for Obama may be a real problem if he can’t dent Romney’s polling surge, as a preference cascade may wipe out the 7% that are leaning towards him now in these swing states. Romney does even better among independents in this measure, leading 43/31 among those “certain” of their choice. Romney has a 14-point lead among “certain” men (and a majority at 50/36), and only a three-point deficit among “certain” women, 41/44.
Once again, we see Romney up big-time among independents (and we can expect the remaining 12% to break his way). And the fact that fewer Obama supporters are certain of their vote means they could still change their mind, particularly if the president doesn’t substantially improve his performance in the remaining debates.