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California independents swinging toward Mitt (Updated)

UPDATE:  It’s not just CA independents.  In FL, they split “‘54/38” for Romney and “44/35” in Ohio, “with 12% still undecided and 9% claiming to vote for ‘other.’”  UP-UPDATE:  And in MA, it’s 53-40.

Among Independents,” reports CBS5 out of San Franciso on its latest tracking poll,

Obama led by 14 in September, but now trails by 9 in October, a 23-point right turn among the most coveted voters. One explanation, based on the poll data: The number of Romney supporters who said they were voting “for Mitt Romney” as opposed to “against Barack Obama” is way up, month over month.

Like independents across the country, those in the Golden State are now swinging toward Mitt.  Even if this trend continues, it’s unlikely to put the state in play, but is a sign that even where the Romney campaign is not active, these voters are turning away from Barack Obama and toward Mitt Romney.

Indeed, one state considered firm in the Obama campaign, but known for its independent streak (having elected two independents governor in the past forty years), is not looking as good for the Democrat as he might hope.  Obama only leads Romney in Maine by 4 points, 48-44.  And Romney’s ahead in Maine’s second congressional district by a larger margin.  And “Maine is one of two states in the country that splits its electoral college vote by congressional district.”  (H/t:  Ace.)

California’s independents provide evidence of a trend we’ve long noticed, but Maine’s independents could well end up giving Romney an unexpected electoral vote.  Or three.



  1. Maybe the Californicators in the DNC camp are finally waking up. Here’s hoping.

    PS – Don’t forget that “Atlas Shrugged Part II” opens today! Go Galt!

    Peter H.

    Comment by Peter Hughes — October 12, 2012 @ 9:28 am - October 12, 2012

  2. Perhaps the Good Ship Hopeychangey hit the lollipop and is going down in a sea of pink lemonade and unicorn sweat.

    Cap’n O’Bama and his rusty first mate Joey O’ Biden are hoisting each other on the perpetual spin machine while ordering everyone to get on board and life the manboats. Meanwhile, moon bats are flying off in all directions and puffing the magic dragon just doesn’t clarify the view from deep within the poop deck. This is a job for Mr. Clean and his side kick, Numbers Ryan.

    Comment by heliotrope — October 12, 2012 @ 10:17 am - October 12, 2012

  3. Go Maine !!!

    Comment by TnnsNE1 — October 12, 2012 @ 10:34 am - October 12, 2012

  4. The Obama campaign is collapsing.

    Comment by Sebastian Shaw — October 12, 2012 @ 11:52 am - October 12, 2012

  5. The same day, a PPP poll came out in Massachusetts showing the exact same thing. Overall, MA is Obama +14 according to the poll, but Independents, which make up 53% of the electorate, are going for Romney +13 (53-40%). This is a major, major switch from previous polling that had Obama ahead by low single digits among Independents.

    Comment by Nate B. — October 12, 2012 @ 6:26 pm - October 12, 2012

  6. Thanks, Nate B., do you have a link on that? If so, I can add to the UPDATE at the top!

    Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — October 12, 2012 @ 6:30 pm - October 12, 2012

  7. Yes, this is the link to the crosstabs:

    Scroll down to page 16 on the crosstabs.

    Comment by Nate B. — October 12, 2012 @ 6:56 pm - October 12, 2012

  8. Thanks, Nate B., up-updated.

    Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — October 12, 2012 @ 7:02 pm - October 12, 2012

  9. Peter Hughes: Thanks for the reminder on Atlas Part II. I’m looking forward to it (and eventually Part III). I loved Part I, although the acting was a little wooden at times, (almost George Lucas-esque) and the dialogue seemed to lead the viewer around by the nose. But the theme, and overall story were so refreshing!

    Comment by AF_Vet — October 12, 2012 @ 11:14 pm - October 12, 2012

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