UPDATE: It’s not just CA independents. In FL, they split “‘54/38” for Romney and “44/35” in Ohio, “with 12% still undecided and 9% claiming to vote for ‘other.’” UP-UPDATE: And in MA, it’s 53-40.
“Among Independents,” reports CBS5 out of San Franciso on its latest tracking poll,
Obama led by 14 in September, but now trails by 9 in October, a 23-point right turn among the most coveted voters. One explanation, based on the poll data: The number of Romney supporters who said they were voting “for Mitt Romney” as opposed to “against Barack Obama” is way up, month over month.
Like independents across the country, those in the Golden State are now swinging toward Mitt. Even if this trend continues, it’s unlikely to put the state in play, but is a sign that even where the Romney campaign is not active, these voters are turning away from Barack Obama and toward Mitt Romney.
Indeed, one state considered firm in the Obama campaign, but known for its independent streak (having elected two independents governor in the past forty years), is not looking as good for the Democrat as he might hope. Obama only leads Romney in Maine by 4 points, 48-44. And Romney’s ahead in Maine’s second congressional district by a larger margin. And “Maine is one of two states in the country that splits its electoral college vote by congressional district.” (H/t: Ace.)
California’s independents provide evidence of a trend we’ve long noticed, but Maine’s independents could well end up giving Romney an unexpected electoral vote. Or three.