Anyone who knows me in real life, or has paid very close attention to this blog since 2004, knows that I grew up in the Philadelphia suburbs. I also “grew up in politics” in the Keystone State. So I am one of “those people” that since 1988 has always hoped that “Pennsylvania is in play” in the Presidential Election.
As we all know, it hasn’t happened. It is that time of the year again, as I gaze yearningly north of the Mason-Dixon Line to wonder if this is the year? Will the “bitter clingers” & Northeast PA Catholics finally reject Barack Obama and the New Democrat Party?
Well, there are some developments on that front.
This week, the RealClearPolitics average of polls made a dramatic shift in its Electoral College Map. For the first time in many years, Pennsylvania is now a true “Toss Up” state (as well as Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin). Two polls that I’ve seen came out of Pennsylvania showing a tie, but the RCP average of the state’s polls shows a slight Romney edge.
As Crazy VP Biden would say, “that’s a big f–cking deal!”
Now I have some more news for everyone about Pennsylvania. Those of you who read Jim Geraghty at National Review Online know that he has campaign sources he has called “Obi Wan,” “Big Cheese,” and “Middle Cheese.”
Well, I have two very good insiders in Pennsylvania politics that I will call “Rolling Rock” and “Yuengling.” Rolling Rock, Yuengling and I have known each other for over 20 years. And all I’m comfortable in saying is that both are very influential political operatives and know what they are talking about. They also have different political networks in Pennsylvania.
So that being said, I sent feelers to Rolling Rock & Yuengling today, asking them about my infamous “white whale”. Here’s what I got:
RR: The Obama-Romney race is within the margin of error. At this point it looks like Obama is going to have to start spending some serious money in order to save Pennsylvania from falling.
Y: Obama-Romney and Casey-Smith (US Senate) are both essentially tied. Casey appears to be sinking fast. Smith has the momentum and resources to win.
So my two friends have me hoisting the sails and turning The Pequod’s bow toward the north yet again.