Inside Campaign Intel From “The White Whale”
Anyone who knows me in real life, or has paid very close attention to this blog since 2004, knows that I grew up in the Philadelphia suburbs. I also “grew up in politics” in the Keystone State. So I am one of “those people” that since 1988 has always hoped that “Pennsylvania is in play” in the Presidential Election.
As we all know, it hasn’t happened. It is that time of the year again, as I gaze yearningly north of the Mason-Dixon Line to wonder if this is the year? Will the “bitter clingers” & Northeast PA Catholics finally reject Barack Obama and the New Democrat Party?
Well, there are some developments on that front.
This week, the RealClearPolitics average of polls made a dramatic shift in its Electoral College Map. For the first time in many years, Pennsylvania is now a true “Toss Up” state (as well as Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin). Two polls that I’ve seen came out of Pennsylvania showing a tie, but the RCP average of the state’s polls shows a slight Romney edge.
As Crazy VP Biden would say, “that’s a big f–cking deal!”
Now I have some more news for everyone about Pennsylvania. Those of you who read Jim Geraghty at National Review Online know that he has campaign sources he has called “Obi Wan,” “Big Cheese,” and “Middle Cheese.”
Well, I have two very good insiders in Pennsylvania politics that I will call “Rolling Rock” and “Yuengling.” Rolling Rock, Yuengling and I have known each other for over 20 years. And all I’m comfortable in saying is that both are very influential political operatives and know what they are talking about. They also have different political networks in Pennsylvania.
So that being said, I sent feelers to Rolling Rock & Yuengling today, asking them about my infamous “white whale”. Here’s what I got:
RR: The Obama-Romney race is within the margin of error. At this point it looks like Obama is going to have to start spending some serious money in order to save Pennsylvania from falling.
Y: Obama-Romney and Casey-Smith (US Senate) are both essentially tied. Casey appears to be sinking fast. Smith has the momentum and resources to win.
So my two friends have me hoisting the sails and turning The Pequod’s bow toward the north yet again.
-Bruce (GayPatriot)
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Comment by Steve — October 13, 2012 @ 5:52 pm - October 13, 2012
Ace asks, “What do you do when your firewall is on fire?”
Pennsylvania might have gone GOP this year, but a judge decided, “Hey, you know what? We’re cool with voter fraud.” So, vote early, vote often will once again be the rule of the day in the corrupt precincts of Philadelphia, and Pennsylvania will remain the eternal cocktease, promising to turn red, but leaving us with nothing but blue balls, at the end of the night.
Comment by V the K — October 13, 2012 @ 6:35 pm - October 13, 2012
Michigan ‘s in play this year too. It’s still within margin of error range. I tend to agree with Roger L. Simon at PJ Media I don’t think this Election will be close at all. Like I said before I think at least 5% of Dem voters are going to flip and R turnout will be very high, possibly far higher then anyone expects. More people have started going to Romney rallies, not necessarily to hear him speak, but to see the future President. Confidence is High Don’t get cocky!
Comment by Catseye — October 13, 2012 @ 8:53 pm - October 13, 2012
Didn’t I ever tell you? Bidens Do Not Bounce!
Comment by EBL — October 13, 2012 @ 9:09 pm - October 13, 2012
When it is very close, the Democrats win by their patented methods.
HOWEVER, when the enthusiasm gap favors the conservatives, the silent majority turn-out is likely to overcome, by a substantial edge, the “patented methods” of the Democrats who pull recounts out of the hat through the “discovery” of uncounted ballots and other methods of swindle which are generously lubricated with snake oil.
I wonder whether Rolling Rock and Yuengling have a measure on (1.) the “clingers” who are silently biding their time and as anxious as they can be to vote Obama/Biden out and (2.) the Democrat sleaze who plan to vote the dead and/or stuff the recount ballot box.
The Daley family of Chicago owns the Democrats-only, post election recount school of mocking democracy. So, if Pennsylvania is in play, can the party of Lincoln overcome the party of no-holds barred?
In my experience, polls and the inside projections of political operatives do not weigh the insidious, invidious weight of Democrat scoundrels.
Comment by heliotrope — October 13, 2012 @ 9:26 pm - October 13, 2012
Yes they Don’t but the pollsters have never had so few people to poll only 9% are bothering to answer the questions. No One Trusts The Media Anymore! So they are stuck dealing with self-selection biasing of their polls, even before they start. End Result the don’t Know where they are and how bad the Shit is gonna hit the Fan! We Will Win Because We Must!
Comment by Catseye — October 14, 2012 @ 12:48 am - October 14, 2012
SHE BREACHES!!!
Comment by American Elephant — October 14, 2012 @ 6:24 am - October 14, 2012
Bruce,
Let me add to your information. Look at the PA undervote for the 2012 primary:
http://cdn.breitbart.com/mediaserver/Breitbart/Big-Government/2012/Primary/Obama-Undervote-map-2.png
Note that in some counties it reaches over 35%. I was curious as to how this would play, so I took the 2012 Dem primary undervote and applied it, county by county, to the 2008 Obama-McCain election. As it turns out this undervote represents about 513,000 votes across PA. The noteworthy detail is that your hometown of Phila cast 574,000 votes for Obama in 2008.
This undervote could almost neutralize the “Phila effect” in PA. At the very least, it gives Southeast PA a much steeper hill to climb in influencing the 2012 presidential race. Furthermore, if McCain had picked up just 18% of that 2012 undervote, he would have won PA.
Now add to that the coal economy that stretches from Greene county (SW) to Luzerne and Lackawanna counties (South of Scranton); ya think any union blue coal miners are voting for Obama? How about the bitter clingers? Catholic mom’s? The list goes on. I think that there is no question that PA is in play in the next 3 weeks. My expectations, from what I’ve seen on the ground here, is that PA goes Republican this year by 51% – 52%.
Comment by T — October 14, 2012 @ 8:45 am - October 14, 2012
Catseye above (No. 3) wrote: ” think at least 5% of Dem voters are going to flip . . . .”
I think you are correct (e.g., think coal miners). Now Obama won v. McCain 53% to McCain’s 47%. A 5% flip, alone, reverses that. My very superficial research make me thing Romney 55% to Obama 45% and Romney between 320 to 340 Electoral votes.
THe Univ of CO study reached the same conclusion with EVs (with a 53% popuar vote).
Additionally, one little insignificant factoi FWIW: Dems have not won a presidential election in which ballots were cast on Nov 6th since (I think) 1844. Go figure.
Comment by T — October 14, 2012 @ 8:53 am - October 14, 2012
[...] is bubbling back up into the news following 5 straight polls showing it within the margin of error, GayPatriot on Sunday weighed in on his former home state using his own sources high up in Pennsylvania politics: I grew up in the Philadelphia suburbs. I [...]
Pingback by Thoughts on Romney’s Prospects in Pennsylvania — GayPatriot « Battleground Watch — October 16, 2012 @ 3:43 pm - October 16, 2012