From my Cincinnati correspondent, I learn that one of his neighbors who had an Obama sign on his lawn four years ago now has a Romney sign. And although he has seen a few more Obama signs than in the past, he has see far more Romney stickers than Obama ones.
The Suffolk University poll of Ohio voters, with only a 4-point Democratic advantage (39D-35R) shows the race ties at 47. Of those surveyed, 280 voters backed Romney, 279 Obama. (via The Corner.)
Other polls have shown the president slightly ahead of his Republican rival, yet with samples far more favorable to the Democrat than he enjoyed in the Buckeye State in 2008. The “the latest CBS News/Quinnipiac poll in Ohio,” reports Ed Morrissey,
has a laughable D/R/I of 35/26/34. In 2008, the D/R/I was 39/31/30, while in 2010 it was 36/37/28. We have plenty of data on enthusiasm in this election cycle, precisely none of which points to an 11-point drop in Republican participation in two years in this race.
Still, in that survey, Mitt Romney “has made some inroads with independents; he now leads among this group by seven points, 49 to 42 percent. Romney had a one-point advantage among independents in September.”
The Gravis survey, observes Josh Jordan in the National Review, shows Romney enjoying an even bigger advantage among independent voters who prefer the Republican by nearly 20 points, 52-33. “PPP (a Democratic firm) released their new poll” on Saturday, he noted. And it revealed a similar phenomenon:
. . . showing Obama only up one point, 49 to 48. Just a week ago PPP had the race at 51–46 for Obama. But the four-point gain for Romney is even more impressive when you look at the poll’s findings:
This week’s poll has a Democrat sample advantage of 8 percent; last week’s advantage was 4. Romney gained four points on Obama in a week despite the sample’s having four percentage points more Democrats. Romney leads with independents by 7 percent, up from a 5 percent last week. Obama’s approval is underwater at 48–50, and independents disapprove of him by a 41–54 margin. Last week Obama was in positive approval ground at 50–48, and independents disapproved by a much smaller 45–50 margin. Romney’s favorability has gone from a minus-6 margin last week (45–51) to a plus-2 this week (49–47). Trust on the economy went from Obama plus-5 last week (51–46) to plus-4 in Romney’s direction this week (51–47). Independents jumped from Romney plus-5 last week to Romney plus-15 this week.
Emphasis added. Ohio independents sure are flocking to Mitt Romney, including some, as per my correspondent’s report, who backed Barack Obama in 2008.
NB: Tweaked the title.