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State of the race two weeks out

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 6:54 pm - October 24, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

ALthough I had long been cheered by the Gallup tracking poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by as much as 7 points, I did think that normally reliable survey overstated the Republican’s lead. Today, it shows him down to a 3-point lead, besting the incumbent President of the United States, 50-47.

And that is right about where the race stands at present. Rasmussen shows Romney up by 4. The Washington Post poll which, as I noted in my previous post, has Romney leading among independents by 12 points, only has him up by one. That poll does have a reasonable partisan split (D+4). I’m still projecting a split of D+2 on Election Day, but the more reports I get of the surfeit of Romney signs and stickers in yards and on cars in suburbs and swing states, I wouldn’t be surprised if turnout were even, with each party capturing roughly the same share of the electorate.

Bear in mind that only poll (and that the questionable Zogby poll*) since debate season began has had the president at (or above) 50%.  Obama does seem to have a peak.

What must be worrying the Obama team is that undecideds tend to break against the incumbent.  But, a lot can change in thirteen days.  Romney is definitely up right now.  His strength among independents suggests that he should do well among late-deciders.

But, with Reuters showing that Romney’s favorability has jumped to 60, that doesn’t seem all that likely, but then, well, I’m an optimist.

* (more…)

WaPo/ABC tracking poll: Romney has big lead among independents

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 6:18 pm - October 24, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

The headline tells you all you need to know about Obama’s supposed victory in the past two debates: Post-ABC tracking poll: Obama wins final debate, Romney changes minds.

Looks like the Republican changes minds by losing. The top-line item of this poll is not as interesting as what we find in the internals:

Among political independents, 49 percent say Romney is the one who is more empathetic with ongoing economic woes; 45 percent say Obama is more in tune. That’s not a statistically significant advantage for the challenger, but does represent a directional shift from before the first debate.

Looking at handling the economy as a broad issue, Romney’s lead among independents has swelled to 56 to 39 percent in the new poll, an advantage that helps him to a sizable, 12-point lead over Obama when it comes to their voting preferences. Obama won independent and other voters by eight percentage points in 2008.

Emphasis added.  A 12-point advantage among independents yields only a one-point overall advantage.  Hmmm. . . . the poll only gave Democrats a four-point advantage (34-30).

37% of voters have a better opinion of Mitt Romney “As a result of the three presidential debates”. 16% have a worse opinion. (Wonder what percentage of that 16% was hard-core Democrats?)

Why, Oh why, Oh why, Oh, Why doesn’t Biden know he’s in Ohio?

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 5:00 pm - October 24, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election,Biden Watch

Vice President Joe Biden“, reports Joel Gehrke,

once again misstated the state in which he was campaigning, this time addressing an Ohio crowd as if he is in Iowa.

“Literally, ladies and gentleman, this is a guy who is running all the ads here in Iowa saying that he is going to get tough on China,” Biden said during a campaign speech in Ohio.

UPDATE: You really can’t blame the guy. Stacy McCain reminds us that “All these darned Midwestern states look alike!

FROM THE (FACEBOOK) COMMENTS: Alan Ocu quips, “It’s one of Obama’s 57 states at least.” Must be the state of Iowio. Or Oiho.

AOL/Huffington Post leads with downcast Obama

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 4:39 pm - October 24, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

This image which was the first news item on their home page at about 9:30 PST (12:30 GayPatriot blog time) makes the candidate look like he’s resigned to his fate, rather than confident of victory:

This can’t make Gloria Allred very happy

Romney: I Don’t Care If These Decades-Old Divorce Records Are Released

Wonder if she’ll drop the case now.

GM: The Deadbeat of America

I post, you decide.

-Bruce (@GayPatriot)

The Blood of Stevens, Smith, Doherty and Woods Is On Obama

-Bruce (@GayPatriot)

Republicans Caught In Astounding Voter Fraud Scheme

Ooops!  Got that wrong.  My bad.

The son of a prominent Virginia congressman agreed to help an undercover reporter forge documents in what he thought was an illegal voting effort aimed at re-electing the president, a just-published video reveals.

After raising legal and practical concerns, Patrick Moran, son of Virginia Democrat James Moran, encouraged the reporter to create phony utility bills that would allow others to cast multiple votes in the November 6 election.

Supporters of stronger voter ID laws seized on the video as evidence of widespread corruption among liberal get-out-the-vote organizations.

“What he’s doing is soliciting fraudulent voter registrations and fraudulent ballots, and that’s a federal crime,” said Hans von Spakovsky, senior legal fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C. “Even attempting to do that is federal crime — you don’t have to go through with it. Attempting it is a crime.”

This tweet from Ben Domenech pretty much puts the cherry on top. And you may watch the glorious video as well.

 

-Bruce (GayPatriot)

UPDATE (from Dan whom Congressman Jim Moran once called “jerky”): O’Keefe Video Spurs Son to Resign from Moran’s Campaign

Gay leftist wants Romney-supporting friends to “defriend” him

Talk to any gay conservative and we will tell you how some (usually just a handful) of his liberal friends stopped talking to us upon learning of our politics. Most are more subtle in their discrimination, like the woman — at an “equality” summit — who quietly left the table where we had both been sitting shortly after I described the nature of this blog.

Others are more in your face about it. And today, thanks to our reader Timothy773, we learn that one self-rigtheous gay leftist wants his Romney-supporting friends to “defriend” him:

If you plan to vote for Mitt Romney, you are putting a nail into my civil rights coffin, and I’d rather not have friends who think I deserve anything less than equal treatment under the law. Romney supports DOMA (which directly and negatively impacts me, restricting my partner Russ, our kids, and my federal protections and tax benefits under the law), and has noted his support for an anti-marriage equality amendment as well. While you may see your vote for him as one about the economy (and we can debate who’d be better for that until the cows come home), what you intend by your vote really doesn’t matter. Your vote means that you are supporting someone who not only thinks I’m not equal to you, but who works vigorously to ensure my “less-than” legal status. Your vote for him means that you are totally fine with me being treated with disrespect.

What a prejudiced man, assuming that because we plan to vote for Mitt Romney, we want to treat him with disrespect.  Now, to be sure, given his narrow views of Romney supporters, some might well feel inclined to treat him with disrespect, but not, as he implies, because of his sexuality or his relationship, but because of insistence on distancing himself from those who support a good and decent Republican presidential candidate.

Simply put, he doesn’t want to associate with those who support a different presidential candidate than he.  How sad. (more…)

Momentum

Posted by Bruce Carroll at 11:56 am - October 24, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

New ad from the Romney/Ryan campaign this morning.

-Bruce (GayPatriot)

Obama’s fingerprints all over Gloria Allred’s latest stunt

Gloria Allred may well be the lawyer, as per TMZ, attempting to unseal the divorce records of “Staples co-founder Tom Stemberg and his first wife Maureen”, but the move has Barack Obama’s fingerprints all over it.  As Sarah Hoyt, blogging at Instapundit, reminds us unsealing private records is the Democrat’s signature move.

He did it twice in his 2004 race for the U.S. Senate seat from Illinois, first against his strongest primary opponent, Blair Hull, then against Republican nominee Jack Ryan.  Now, to be sure, it was the Chicago Tribune, not Mr. Obama (or his team) who filed suit to unseal the records, but it does seem interesting that, in both cases, the paper was looking into sealed information about that Democrat’s opponent.

Indeed, about the Hull matter, the New York Times did report that, “The Tribune reporter who wrote the original piece later acknowledged in print that the Obama camp had ‘worked aggressively behind the scenes’ to push the story.”   Do hope some people ask Miss Allred today whether or not David Axelrod had asked her to purse this matter.  And why she waited until just two weeks before the general election to do so.

Ace, who has looked at the details of the case in question, a divorce settlement from 1986, doesn’t “really see the Romney angle, except in extremely contrived fashion.”  (Read the whole to see why.)  Trying to figure out what Mr. Romney’s testimony in a 26-year-old divorce case have to do with his ability to govern the United States of America. (more…)

Watcher of Weasels Nominations — 10.24.12 Edition

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 3:02 am - October 24, 2012.
Filed under: Blogging,Conservative Ideas

Council Submissions

In Colorado, “the Romney/Ryan signs keep multiplying”

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 2:05 am - October 24, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

In blue California, the only Obama sticker I saw yesterday was on a car going the wrong way in a Trader Joe’s parking lot. Not only were there arrows on the pavement, but the parking spots were marked off diagonally, so the only way this person could have parked would be to make a nearly 270-degree turn.  A reader in Colorado saw the same number of Obama stickers yesterday, catching one “on a Volvo driven by an stern-looking middle age woman”.

Over the weekend, I did see an Obama-Biden yard sign in front of a house in Silverlake, but my correspondent in Colorado comments that while he has seen a handful of Obama yard signs, b”the Romney/Ryan signs keep multiplying.”

From Monterey, California (Clint Eastwood country), comes a report of “more than a few Romney/Ryan stickers and even some Gary Johnson ones, but not an overwhelming amount of Obama stuff, of which I expected to see more.”

Does seem that this time around, the enthusiasm favors our side.

UPDATE: It’s not just Monterey, CA:  ”Here, in ultra-liberal King County, Obama signs are nowhere to be seen. You do see the occasional Romney sign. But back in 2008, you’d think this was the headquarters of the Cult of Obama.”  (H/t:  Glenn Reynolds.)

Gloria Allred to use Staples co-founder’s divorce against Mitt!?!?

Conservative blogosphere has been abuzz today about reports that Obama supporter Gloria Allred has an “October surprise” prepared for Mitt as per this report:

Famed civil rights attorney Gloria Allredwill be in a Boston area courtroom Wednesday in an attempt to unseal the sworn testimony given by Republican Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney, in a prior court case, RadarOnline.com is exclusively reporting.

Civil rights attorney?  That’s how they bill Miss Allred?  A reader thinks he knows what this is all about, and directs me to this TMZ post.  Allred wants to unseal the records of “Staples co-founder Tom Stemberg and his first wife Maureen”.

This is scraping the bottom of the barrel.  Mr. Romney just testified at the trial.  The case wasn’t even about him.

Ace is already on this.

FROM THE COMMENTS:  Ryan questions my conclusion:  ”Scrapping the bottom of the barrel? More like ten feet UNDER the barrel!”

UP-UPDATE:  Sorry, Gloria, there appears to be no there there.  Romney’s lawyer is okay with testimony being made public:

Robert Jones, an attorney at the Boston law firm of Ropes & Gray, who is representing Romney in this matter told TIME in a statement, “This is a decades-old divorce case in which Mitt Romney provided testimony as to the value of a company. He has no objection to letting the public see that testimony.”

Via HotAir headlines.