ALthough I had long been cheered by the Gallup tracking poll showing Mitt Romney ahead by as much as 7 points, I did think that normally reliable survey overstated the Republican’s lead. Today, it shows him down to a 3-point lead, besting the incumbent President of the United States, 50-47.
And that is right about where the race stands at present. Rasmussen shows Romney up by 4. The Washington Post poll which, as I noted in my previous post, has Romney leading among independents by 12 points, only has him up by one. That poll does have a reasonable partisan split (D+4). I’m still projecting a split of D+2 on Election Day, but the more reports I get of the surfeit of Romney signs and stickers in yards and on cars in suburbs and swing states, I wouldn’t be surprised if turnout were even, with each party capturing roughly the same share of the electorate.
Bear in mind that only poll (and that the questionable Zogby poll*) since debate season began has had the president at (or above) 50%. Obama does seem to have a peak.
What must be worrying the Obama team is that undecideds tend to break against the incumbent. But, a lot can change in thirteen days. Romney is definitely up right now. His strength among independents suggests that he should do well among late-deciders.
But, with Reuters showing that Romney’s favorability has jumped to 60, that doesn’t seem all that likely, but then, well, I’m an optimist.
*And even that poll shows Romney up among independents 49-42.