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WaPo/ABC tracking poll: Romney has big lead among independents

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 6:18 pm - October 24, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

The headline tells you all you need to know about Obama’s supposed victory in the past two debates: Post-ABC tracking poll: Obama wins final debate, Romney changes minds.

Looks like the Republican changes minds by losing. The top-line item of this poll is not as interesting as what we find in the internals:

Among political independents, 49 percent say Romney is the one who is more empathetic with ongoing economic woes; 45 percent say Obama is more in tune. That’s not a statistically significant advantage for the challenger, but does represent a directional shift from before the first debate.

Looking at handling the economy as a broad issue, Romney’s lead among independents has swelled to 56 to 39 percent in the new poll, an advantage that helps him to a sizable, 12-point lead over Obama when it comes to their voting preferences. Obama won independent and other voters by eight percentage points in 2008.

Emphasis added.  A 12-point advantage among independents yields only a one-point overall advantage.  Hmmm. . . . the poll only gave Democrats a four-point advantage (34-30).

37% of voters have a better opinion of Mitt Romney “As a result of the three presidential debates”. 16% have a worse opinion. (Wonder what percentage of that 16% was hard-core Democrats?)

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1 Comment

  1. [...] of this blog know that I have regularly posted about polls showing Mitt Romney enjoying a sizable advantage among independent voters — even [...]

    Pingback by GayPatriot » Why the Independent vote matters (particularly in swing states) — October 31, 2012 @ 6:22 pm - October 31, 2012

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