Twenty-five days ago, I wondered if Republicans would “run even with Democrats” on Election day, that is, “each party’s partisans making up a near identical portion of the electorate.” In 2008, Democrats had a 7-point advantage, with 39% of voters identifying as Democrats, 32 as Republicans.
I’m still forecasting an electorate where turnout favors Democrats by about 2 points, but a recent Gallup survey indicated that the “composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election” could be more Republican than even that forecat. “[A]ccording to an analysis of the demographics of Gallup’s likely voter sample since Oct. 1” Republicans represent 36% of the current electorate, Democrats 35% and independents 29%.
(Via Charles Martin @ PJTatler.)
That suggest an R+1 turnout, R+3 with leaners included, the latter number likely reflecting Romney’s success this year with independent voters. Rasmussen polling, as Dan McLaughlin reminds us, has also suggested “Republicans will have a turnout advantage. . . .”