Will Republicans have a turnout advantage this fall?
Twenty-five days ago, I wondered if Republicans would “run even with Democrats” on Election day, that is, “each party’s partisans making up a near identical portion of the electorate.” In 2008, Democrats had a 7-point advantage, with 39% of voters identifying as Democrats, 32 as Republicans.
I’m still forecasting an electorate where turnout favors Democrats by about 2 points, but a recent Gallup survey indicated that the “composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election” could be more Republican than even that forecat. “[A]ccording to an analysis of the demographics of Gallup’s likely voter sample since Oct. 1″ Republicans represent 36% of the current electorate, Democrats 35% and independents 29%.
(Via Charles Martin @ PJTatler.)
That suggest an R+1 turnout, R+3 with leaners included, the latter number likely reflecting Romney’s success this year with independent voters. Rasmussen polling, as Dan McLaughlin reminds us, has also suggested “Republicans will have a turnout advantage. . . .”
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The Dems are already turning out their voters:
Two volunteer poll workers at an Ohio voting station told Human Events that they observed van loads of Ohio residents born in Somalia — the state is home to the second-largest Somali population in the United States — being driven to the voting station and guided by Democratic interpreters on the voting process…
…[a volunteer] has witnessed Somalis who cannot speak English come to the polling center. They are brought in groups, by van or bus. The Democrats hand them a slate card and say, “vote Brown all the way down.” Given that Sherrod Brown is the incumbent Democrat Senator in Ohio, one can assume that this is the reference.
How many of these people are entitled to vote? My guess is “damn few”.
http://www.humanevents.com/2012/10/26/is-voter-fraud-being-committed-in-ohio/
Comment by SoCalRobert — October 27, 2012 @ 7:25 pm - October 27, 2012
Yes, the Right will have a turnout advantage. All the information I’ve seen shows O’bama is down with every group he carried in 2008. He carried Catholics in 2008 by 54% the one poll I saw earlier this summer had O’bama down to 27%. The Catholic vote alone may take O’bama out.
Comment by Catseye — October 27, 2012 @ 7:46 pm - October 27, 2012
I am going with a +2 Democrat advantage. But if it’s even steven, Romney will win easily.
Comment by davinci — October 27, 2012 @ 9:58 pm - October 27, 2012
That’s where I think all the polls are wrong, even the vunerable Nate Silver. All these polls using 2008 as a benchmark (some even predicting higher Dem turnout than ’08?!?!?!) will be way wrong come election day. I believe one Gallup poll even showed they could only get a 9% response rate on their surveys, which tells me very few of these polls are going to be accurate to the actual election counts…
Comment by Tim in MT — October 27, 2012 @ 10:42 pm - October 27, 2012
Black & other minorities are down to 80% from 2008′s peak of 95%; this alone spells doom for Obama.
Comment by Sebastian Shaw — October 28, 2012 @ 9:01 am - October 28, 2012
I hope this is the HeeHaw election for the Dems, “Gloom, Despair and Agony on Me! If it weren’t for bad luck I’d have no luck at all!”
Comment by TexasMom2012 — October 28, 2012 @ 9:49 am - October 28, 2012
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