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Independent voters tilting increasingly Romneywards

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 1:30 am - October 29, 2012.
Filed under: Post 9-11 America

Ever since the conventions, even when Obama led in the polls, conservative bloggers have cited the superabundance of surveys showing Romney leading among independent voters.  Even Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post has noticed this:

President Obama has a problem with independents. And it’s not a small problem.

In the last three releases of the tracking poll conducted by The Washington Post and ABC News, Obama has trailed former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among independent voters by between 16 and 20 percentage points.

That’s a striking reversal from 2008, when Obama won independent voters, who made up 29 percent of the electorate, by eight points over Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

(H/t:  Instapundit.)  Jay Cost believes the Republican’s advantage among independents “could prove key“:

And with these voters, Romney has a substantial lead. The most recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows Romney besting Obama by 13 points, 52 percent to 39 percent, among unaffiliated voters. Since 1972, the first year of exit polling, no candidate for president has won election while losing independents by such a wide margin.

What is driving this is, above all, Romney’s growing advantage on who can best handle the economy. The most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll gives the Republican a 9-point lead on this issue, which remains the top determinant of most vote choices. The recent Associated Press-GfK poll found Romney with a 6-point lead on the economy among likely voters, as well as an 8-point lead on who can better handle the deficit.

Interesting that Rasmussen, a poll scorend by the left shows Romney with a narrower margin among independents than does the Washington Post/ABC poll, a survey they readily embrace.  We don’t know yet what the partisan split will be on Election Day, but it’s looking increasingly likely that it will be more favorable to Republicans than it was in 2008.

The last time it was even, the Republican won the election while losing independents by a point.



  1. It is going to be Romney 53-47 because 47% is Obama’s ceiling.

    Comment by TexasMom2012 — October 29, 2012 @ 8:37 am - October 29, 2012

  2. Since the thread Why there aren´t more Romney Ryan signs in California has run its course, I thought I would voice my concern here that if and when Mitt Romney is President, how shrill the left will be in their criticism of him, as they were with GW Bush. After the invasion of Afganistan I remember several people, mostly women; standing at the intersection of Sunset, Hollywood Blvds, Hillhurst/Virgil sceaming obscenities in describing President Bush and their opposition to the war. These were probably the same people who claimed that the TEA Party is radical. The more I see of the radical left the more I agree with the line from the movie Life With Father, in which Clarence Day Sr., questioned, ¨Why did God make so many damned fools and Democrats?¨

    Comment by Roberto — October 29, 2012 @ 2:04 pm - October 29, 2012

  3. […] in original).  Most national polls show Obama either significantly or slightly behind Mitt Romney, particularly among independent voters.  Will a negative pitch, at this stage, sway any of those remaining undecideds? Comments […]

    Pingback by GayPatriot » Can Obama close the gap with negative closing argument? — October 30, 2012 @ 12:21 pm - October 30, 2012

  4. […] of this blog know that I have regularly posted about polls showing Mitt Romney enjoying a sizable advantage among independent voters […]

    Pingback by GayPatriot » Why the Independent vote matters (particularly in swing states) — October 31, 2012 @ 6:20 pm - October 31, 2012

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