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With Election Day approaching, Republicans far more enthusiastic

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 12:45 pm - October 31, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

Democrats must be happy with the latest CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac surveys which show Obama up in three swing states.  Conservative bloggers have been quick to cite the partisan skew of those surveys, with each anticipating a greater Democratic edge than in 2008.

But, despite this skew, each survey shows greater Republican enthusiasm in each state, up 16 points over the Democrats in Florida, 14 in Ohio and 7 in Virginia.  In each state, Republican enthusiasm has increased since the previous survey, causing Stacy McCain to ask,

How is it that Republicans report greater voting enthusiasm by such large margins, and yet are underrepresented in the poll’s sample? It makes no sense.

(H/t:  Reader Kurt.)  “In all three states,” Ed Morrissey concludes, Obama has

. . . lost ground by double digits in the gap with independents.  In all three states, Republican enthusiasm is significantly higher than Democratic enthusiasm.  I’d say that the only possible way Obama could be leading under those circumstances is to seriously undercount Republicans.

GOP enthusiasm up.  Independents swinging toward Mitt Romney.   The internals of these polls certainly suggest an electorate favoring the Republicans.



  1. If Obama loses, who will be the first journalist to describe his defeat as “an electoral lynching?”
    Andrew Sullivan
    Chris Matthews
    Ed Schultz
    Bill Maher

    Comment by V the K — October 31, 2012 @ 2:00 pm - October 31, 2012

  2. If Obama loses, who will be the first journalist to describe his defeat as “an electoral lynching?”

    Shall we start a betting pool, with the winner donating the $$$ to the charity of his or her choice?

    Comment by Bastiat Fan — October 31, 2012 @ 2:23 pm - October 31, 2012

  3. Tavis Smiley and his poindexter side-kick.

    Peter H.

    Comment by Peter Hughes — October 31, 2012 @ 2:23 pm - October 31, 2012

  4. Matthews followed closely by Toure they’ve been playing in that field for so long that they think they’re geniuses.

    Comment by Catseye — October 31, 2012 @ 3:13 pm - October 31, 2012

  5. Do you think (m)any weak-Romney voters will be turned off by the media’s clear effort to portray the Dear Teleprompter has having a lead on Romney?

    On the one hand, people must surely be aware of the polls showing a tight race (hence, the importance of their own vote). But on the other hand, a LOT of swing voters are… “low information voters”, as they say, who do think that the media headlines are what’s going on.

    I guess we’ll find out Tuesday! But I’ll say this: If the turnout model *isn’t* like 2008 – if it is even halfway like 2010 – then Obama’s toast.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — October 31, 2012 @ 3:16 pm - October 31, 2012

  6. I admit I am not madly passionate about voting for Romney, but I am madly passionate about voting against Obama and think Romney at least competent to lead-something I think Obama has shown he isn’t.

    A huge nor’easter could blow in and I would trudge through 4 feet of snow to cast my vote for Romney on November 6th. I so badly want Romney to win I can’t stand it. I just hate the thought that Obama-the narcissist in chief-spending 4 more years in the White House and screwing the American people even more.

    Comment by Just Me — October 31, 2012 @ 5:19 pm - October 31, 2012

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