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Could Democrats lose House seats?

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 6:27 pm - November 1, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Congressional Elections

While most political prognosticators have been saying that Republicans stand in good stead to hold the House of Representatives this fall, a good number have suggested that Democrats are likely to shave a few seats off the GOP majority.

At the Weekly Standard Fred Barnes reports that “Democratic hopes of capturing the House next Tuesday are long gone. And Democrats now could wind up actually losing seats“:

David Wasserman, the Cook Political Report’s expert on House races, changed his rating of 15 contested House races, 11 of them to the benefit of Republicans. For example, Republican Bob Dold, supposedly doomed because his affluent district north of Chicago was badly gerrymandered, now is in a tossup race.

The Report now rates 28 races as Tossups.  If those races “were to divide evenly between the parties,” Wasserman says, “Democrats would score a net gain of a single seat in the House”.

But, with Republican enthusiasm as strong as it is, Republicans could win the lion’s share of those seats — and thus increase the size of their majority.

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7 Comments

  1. http://youtu.be/N0nyOyrprIs

    Comment by V the K — November 1, 2012 @ 7:47 pm - November 1, 2012

  2. ROMNEY UP 4.7% in latest UnSkewed Polls average…

    http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com/2012/11/in-latest-unskewed-polls-average-mitt.html

    Comment by Steve — November 1, 2012 @ 8:38 pm - November 1, 2012

  3. Dude, are you serious? Could they lose House seats? Really?

    They are going to get massacred. (strictly in the metaphorical sense)

    2010 elections gifted the Republicans with so many state legislatures just in time to redistrict. The Republican parties gerrymandered the crap out of everwhere they could touch, just as the Dems did before them. Even without an “undertow” election, the Dems are at a structural disadvantage.

    Comment by Sean D Sorrentino — November 1, 2012 @ 9:32 pm - November 1, 2012

  4. My guess is a four seat gain in the Senate with 51-49 in favor of the GOP and a loss of 4 seats in the House.

    Comment by davinci — November 1, 2012 @ 11:17 pm - November 1, 2012

  5. YES!

    Comment by Sebastian Shaw — November 2, 2012 @ 9:33 am - November 2, 2012

  6. One seat the Demoncrats may well lose is Utah’s Fourth CD where Republican Mia Love has opened up a double-digit lead over Demoncrat incumbent Jim Matheson.

    Mia is a black, female, Mormon Republica one of those people the MFM believes doesn’t exist (like gnomes, elves, and faeries). I will adopt her as my surrogate congressman, since the Demoncrats gerrymandered the district where I lived and are sticking me with ass-face Chris Van Hollen.

    Comment by V the K — November 2, 2012 @ 9:34 am - November 2, 2012

  7. Don’t hold your breath kids, but Karen Harrington has a pretty good shot at sending Debbie Blabbermouth Schulz back to the private sector (where she is, no doubt, not qualified to do anything.) http://www.karenforcongress.com/

    Comment by Bastiat Fan — November 2, 2012 @ 12:12 pm - November 2, 2012

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