I remember, with part glee and part horror, that those on the Left claimed that George W. Bush stole the 2004 elections. Why? Because the first batch of exit polls showed Kerry winning. Yep, ACTUAL VOTE totals were said to be wrong — because the EXIT POLLS could not possibly be an error!! I wish I was joking about this.
Anyway, our actual vote totals in early voting states (all of them, including Nevada) show Romney is overperforming McCain and Obama 2012 is underpeforming Obama 2008. It is a fact. Search the state election board websites. The ACTUAL votes are all there. You can short-cut your work by reading good analysis like I am. But since I’m accused of being a right wing nut job by people who trust EXIT POLLS over ACTUAL VOTES — you can do your own work.
In the absence of the total actual votes from Tuesday, we have this interesting bit of math via Instapundit today.
I’m copying the whole post because it is just so good and lines up with the 5-7 point Party ID switch (2008 to 2012) that Gallup and Rasmussen have been tracking over the past two years.
PS – Math is hard.
UPDATE: Interesting number crunching from reader John Bono:
This looks like a good math experiment to try and predict the popular vote for ’12.
In ’08, Obama had 52.9% of the vote(69,456,897), and McCain had 45.7% of the vote(59,934,814).
According to the Washington Post, only 87% are committing to voting for Obama, and 13% are going to vote for Romney. 3% are either unsure, or voting for someone else. Let’s be generous, and assume 1.5 points of that 3% are going to Obama, 1 point is going to Romney, and .5 point to third parties. . Assuming this poll is halfway accurate(a big giant if), that means Obama can reliably count on 88.5% of his ’08 electorate.
That means Obama’s vote total of the ’08 vote will be 61.5 million give or take(88.5% of ’08 voters).
It also means that Romney’s ’08 vote total will be (69,456,897*.135) + 59,934,814, or 69.3 million, give or take . That’s the 13.5% of disaffected Obama voters plus McCain voters. Note this does not take into account the wild differences between GOP and Dem motivation of ’08 vs. now.
That means that Obama right now is at 47%, and Romney at 52.9%, or nearly a six point spread—and this is with the miserably depressed McCain GOP Electorate of ’08, and not the Crawl Over Broken Glass GOP voters of ‘12. I smell landslide.
I’m going out on a limb now. I believe that the final popular vote will be Romney 54, Obama 45. Romney will win Pennsylvania and Ohio.
First sign that I’m right? The networks will NOT call Pennsylvania until after way after 9PM Eastern Time. If they call it before 9PM, I’m wrong and Obama will win PA as “expected.” If it is a 1980-style Romney blowout, it is possible the networks will call the entire race before 10PM.
We shall see.
UPDATE: Michael Barone agrees with me. I never bet against Michael Barone.
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