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Actual Voting Numbers & “Math Is Hard”:
Predicting Tuesday’s Outcome

Posted by Bruce Carroll at 5:23 pm - November 2, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

I remember, with part glee and part horror, that those on the Left claimed that George W. Bush stole the 2004 elections.  Why?  Because the first batch of exit polls showed Kerry winning.  Yep, ACTUAL VOTE totals were said to be wrong — because the EXIT POLLS could not possibly be an error!!  I wish I was joking about this.

Anyway, our actual vote totals in early voting states (all of them, including Nevada) show Romney is overperforming McCain and Obama 2012 is underpeforming Obama 2008.  It is a fact.  Search the state election board websites.  The ACTUAL votes are all there.  You can short-cut your work by reading good analysis like I am.  But since I’m accused of being a right wing nut job by people who trust EXIT POLLS over ACTUAL VOTES — you can do your own work.

In the absence of the total actual votes from Tuesday, we have this interesting bit of math via Instapundit today.

I’m copying the whole post because it is just so good and lines up with the 5-7 point Party ID switch (2008 to 2012) that Gallup and Rasmussen have been tracking over the past two years.

PS – Math is hard.

UPDATE: Interesting number crunching from reader John Bono:

This looks like a good math experiment to try and predict the popular vote for ’12.

In ’08, Obama had 52.9% of the vote(69,456,897), and McCain had 45.7% of the vote(59,934,814).

According to the Washington Post, only 87% are committing to voting for Obama, and 13% are going to vote for Romney. 3% are either unsure, or voting for someone else. Let’s be generous, and assume 1.5 points of that 3% are going to Obama, 1 point is going to Romney, and .5 point to third parties. . Assuming this poll is halfway accurate(a big giant if), that means Obama can reliably count on 88.5% of his ’08 electorate.

That means Obama’s vote total of the ’08 vote will be 61.5 million give or take(88.5% of ’08 voters).
It also means that Romney’s ’08 vote total will be (69,456,897*.135) + 59,934,814, or 69.3 million, give or take . That’s the 13.5% of disaffected Obama voters plus McCain voters. Note this does not take into account the wild differences between GOP and Dem motivation of ’08 vs. now.

That means that Obama right now is at 47%, and Romney at 52.9%, or nearly a six point spread—and this is with the miserably depressed McCain GOP Electorate of ’08, and not the Crawl Over Broken Glass GOP voters of ‘12. I smell landslide.

I’m going out on a limb now. I believe that the final popular vote will be Romney 54, Obama 45. Romney will win Pennsylvania and Ohio.

First sign that I’m right?  The networks will NOT call Pennsylvania until after way after 9PM Eastern Time. If they call it before 9PM, I’m wrong and Obama will win PA as “expected.”  If it is a 1980-style Romney blowout, it is possible the networks will call the entire race before 10PM.

We shall see.

UPDATE:  Michael Barone agrees with me.  I never bet against Michael Barone.

-Bruce (@GayPatriot)

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8 Comments

  1. While I’d love to believe you, the rationale has a big flaw – there will be some voters who move from McCain to Obama. I know, because I know a handful – reliable Democrats who voted for McCain because they were Clintonites in the primaries, and were familiar with and generally liked McCain.

    Granted, I don’t think it’s going to approach anywhere near 10%, but it might get to around 5%.

    One additional thing is turnout – I expect some non-voters in 2008 to turn out for Romney this time around, while in general a lesser turnout for Obama.

    If I had to guess, right now, I see a 51-49 race for Romney, with Romney winning Ohio 52-48, and one other swing state to win the election with something like 285 electoral votes. My guess is CO and NH end up in the Romney camp, with WI and IA too close to call.

    I see NV going to Obama, with PA, MI and MI firmly in Obama’s camp (wins by 5 pts or more).

    Comment by CenterRightMargin — November 2, 2012 @ 5:51 pm - November 2, 2012

  2. Romney is going to have a bigger turnout then many expect he’s going to get a lot of Social Cons who didn’t vote for McCain in 2008.

    Comment by Catseye — November 2, 2012 @ 6:46 pm - November 2, 2012

  3. I think your percentage for Romney is way too high. I think the race will be closer. I still think Obama might win.

    I think PA is likely to still go for Obama-however I agree that if they don’t call it early, it very well may be colored red come Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. I also think if Romney wins PA he likely has the election. While I think Obama can afford to lose some states, I think it is a bad sign if he loses PA. I actually think it may be a bad sign if he still takes PA but it is too close to call before the wee hours of the morning.

    Comment by Just Me — November 2, 2012 @ 7:07 pm - November 2, 2012

  4. [...] Actual Voting Numbers & “Math Is Hard”:Predicting Tuesday’s Outcome [...]

    Pingback by GayPatriot » Dan’s New Math for Election Forecasting — November 2, 2012 @ 7:32 pm - November 2, 2012

  5. Obama cannot mathematically win without Pennsylvania. Assuming FL, IN & NC go to Romney.

    Comment by Bruce (GayPatriot) — November 2, 2012 @ 7:48 pm - November 2, 2012

  6. Funny how some people describe themselves as conservatives and vote for Obama. If anyone voted for Obama in 2008, they aren’t a conservative. If anyone votes for him again in 2012, they definitely aren’t a conservative.

    Comment by Jerry — November 2, 2012 @ 10:41 pm - November 2, 2012

  7. If they describe themselves as Conservative & still vote for Obama, they are not Conservative at all. They’re delusional liars.

    Comment by Sebastian Shaw — November 3, 2012 @ 9:54 am - November 3, 2012

  8. To take an example of such delusional liars: Andrew Sullivan. But we already knew that.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 3, 2012 @ 11:14 am - November 3, 2012

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