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Dan’s New Math for Election Forecasting

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 7:32 pm - November 2, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

When I first read Bruce’s math post, I noted the percentage of Obama supporters who have declared for Romney and wonder if those who hadn’t yet committed either way were like Ann Althouse and or were double-downers, who in the end will double down on their 2008 bet. Since I’m not privy to their inner workings

First, let’s start with the popular vote results from 2008.  Obama, 52.87%; McCain, 45.6%.

Bruce’s chart showed Obama keeping 84% of his 2008 vote, with 13% already defecting to Romney, leaving 3% up for grabs.  Now, in August, Gallup released a poll showing that Romney was only getting 92% of McCain’s 2008 vote, with Obama getting 5%.

Let’s start with what Obama has.  .84 x 52.87 = 44.41%.  Now, add in Obama 5% of the McCain vote.  .04 x 45.6 = 2.28%.  That gives Obama a base vote of 46.69%, roughly 47%.

On to Romney.  He starts with the McCain base .92  x 45.6 = 41.95%.  Now, add it that 13%.  .13 x 52.87 = 6.87%.   That gives him a base vote of 48.82%.  And that’s without accounting for the disaffected Republicans who didn’t vote in 2008.

This math shows Romney up 2 points over Obama, likely more given GOP enthusiasm.  And it may be a tad conservative, given that the Gallup poll was conducted before Romney had tapped Paul Ryan as his running mate or showed his qualities in the three debates.

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13 Comments

  1. I’d like to see Romney win something like, oh, 95% of the vote, carrying DC and all fifty states. But it would be funny to see Obama lose the election while receiving exactly 47% of the vote.

    Comment by chad — November 2, 2012 @ 7:43 pm - November 2, 2012

  2. Going into the weekend things are looking good for Barack Obama. Not terribly different than they looked mid-week or a week ago. But there are a slew of polls which show either a confirmation of his relatively strong position in key states or the slightest move in his direction. And with that we’re starting to see the first take from those who’ve spent the last weeks either unskewing the polls or flagging the Romney-mentum.

    So what is it? Easy. Obama was losing. But Hurricane Sandy turned out to be the anti-Unicorn, the Romney-slayer that killed Romn-mentum and pushed Barack Obama over the finish line, even though he was losing and deserved to lose and was also socialist.”

    Comment by Passing By — November 2, 2012 @ 9:26 pm - November 2, 2012

  3. Passing By, I’ll grant that Hurricane Sandy gave Obama a quick boost, but how can a boost like that last when we’re reading of gas rationing in New Jersey and delayed relief in Staten Island? These stories are getting out there. No, Obama’s not to blame for them. But, they’ll remind voters that Obama showed himself to be in charge — and still problems persist.

    An issue of perception.

    The latest Washington Post tracking poll shows movement away from Obama and toward Romney.

    Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — November 2, 2012 @ 9:32 pm - November 2, 2012

  4. Everyone knows Talking Points Memo is renowned for their objective, unbiased, non-partisan examination of the political arena.

    Comment by Passing Gas — November 2, 2012 @ 10:38 pm - November 2, 2012

  5. “The latest Washington Post tracking poll shows movement away from Obama and toward Romney”
    have a margin of error of three percentage points.

    3 hours ago
    CNN Poll: Obama 50% – Romney 47% in Ohio

    “If, as the polling averages anticipate, Obama carries Ohio on Tuesday (and, in effect, the election)…”

    The survey’s sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

    ????

    a 82.7% chance of winning

    “Everyone knows [National Review] [Gay Patriot] [insert here] is renowned for their objective, unbiased, non-partisan examination of the political arena.”

    Comment by Passing By — November 2, 2012 @ 11:49 pm - November 2, 2012

  6. Everyone knows every mainstream media outlet is covering for their Benghazi boyfriend. Yep, no bias there.

    Comment by Annie — November 3, 2012 @ 12:11 am - November 3, 2012

  7. “I predict that if d-D win, [insert here] and the rest of the Right will seek to discredit the actual votes… based on the polls.”

    ????

    “That’s right. My prediction is that these people … will want to put their own, manufactured, echo-chamber garbage polls ahead of the actual votes of the American people.”

    ??????

    “Until then, everybody is just cherry-picking polls and analysis to shore up their side. Except me, of course“.

    Comment by Passing By — November 3, 2012 @ 6:09 am - November 3, 2012

  8. This election is going to give me ulcers.

    The polls are all over the place, but I think Romney looks confident and is staying positive. Obama and his team look down and desperate.

    My gut tells me the internal polls for these men are saying Romney has momentum, Obama doesn’t.

    I still think either man can win come Tuesday and the biggest key is going to be turnout. Whoever gets more of their voters to the polls wins.

    Comment by Just Me — November 3, 2012 @ 8:20 am - November 3, 2012

  9. We won’t know until Wednesday (we hope) what the truth of the matter is. Until then, everybody is just cherry-picking polls and analysis to shore up their side. Except me, of course.

    Comment by V the K — November 3, 2012 @ 8:52 am - November 3, 2012

  10. Personally, I would love to see all the polls be terribly wrong this year and the polling profession discredited for all time; discussions about right and wrong are far more interesting than discussions about who’s winning the poll contests.

    Comment by V the K — November 3, 2012 @ 9:04 am - November 3, 2012

  11. I predict that if r-R win, PB and the rest of the Left will seek to discredit the actual votes… based on the polls.

    That’s right. My prediction is that these people are so corrupt, intellectually and morally, that they will want to put their own, manufactured, echo-chamber garbage polls ahead of the actual votes of the American people.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 3, 2012 @ 11:10 am - November 3, 2012

  12. ILC, one thing you can take to the bank is that if R^2 wins, the left will not engage in a prolonged round of soul-searching about how badly out-of-touch they and their ideas are with the electorate and reality itself.

    Comment by V the K — November 3, 2012 @ 11:57 am - November 3, 2012

  13. Just Me, I too have noticed the same thing re: candidate appearances. You’re right, it all comes down to turnout.

    Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — November 3, 2012 @ 12:05 pm - November 3, 2012

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