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Posted by Bruce Carroll at 12:08 pm - November 2, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

From the GayPatriot Command Center’s 2012 Decision Desk, I am prepared to make this call:


Here’s why from my friend Scott Elliott, the Blogging Caeser.

Despite rumors of a mega uptick in Democrats registering since 2008, less have voted at this point in the early voting process than in 2008. On the other hand, more Republicans and Unaffiliateds have voted than at this point in 2008.
These numbers represent a drop of 4.9% for Democrats and a rise of 2.58% and 2.18% for Republicans and Unaffiliateds, respectively.
If Unaffiliateds vote for Obama at the same rate they did in 2008 (impossibly unlikely, in my view), then Obama’s >1% victory in 2008 becomes an 8-point Romney victory.
If Unaffiliateds vote for Romney more than they voted for McCain, you can increase that lead by a point or two.
Another important fact:  Barack Obama only won NC in 2008 by <15,000 votes.
There you have it folks.  The GayPatriot Decision Desk has now made two official calls for Election Night:
1 – The Republicans will retain the US House of Representatives
2 – North Carolina goes to Mitt Romney
-Bruce (@GayPatriot)


  1. I wish you could call Ohio for Romney/Ryan

    Comment by Kaye — November 2, 2012 @ 2:59 pm - November 2, 2012

  2. It´s not the House that we need to worry about; it´s the senate. I think we might be able to take it. I think Tom Cruz, Texas, Connie Mack, Florida, Tommy Thompson, Wisconsin, George Allen, Virginia will make it. There is an outside chance to pick up Ohio and Pennsylvania with Josh Mndell and Tom Smith, respectively. Miracle of miracles, the last I heard Todd Akins is in a statistical tie with Clare McCaskell. So a good chance for four, possibly six or seven. and we´ve got control. This is where President Romney will appoint judges to the SCOTUS. Or God forbid, Obama is reelected we can prevent Obama from niminating activist judges. I hate it when I hear squishy Republican Senators Hatch and Graham saying he should have the judges he wants. That would be fine if they had term limits. In El Salvador supreme court judges, have term limits and the makeup is dependent upon the party in power.

    Comment by Roberto — November 2, 2012 @ 3:22 pm - November 2, 2012

  3. Folks not “from here” don’t seem to get it. They say how can Romney win with the R’s being outnumberd in votes by the D’s? Of course you, GP, know the answer as a fellow Tarheel: All Dems here do not necessarily vote Dem. There are plenty of conservative Dems and their families here who just never changed parties after the 60s.

    I travel NC. A lot. Well, for now (I am a small biz) anyway. And I have to say, just an informal yard-sign poll, that the R/R signs outnumber the O/B signs by about 10/1 outside of cities, and by about 2/1 in most town limits (specfically Raleigh, Fayetteville, and the little towns in-between). So I agree, Romney wins NC, and by more than O won it in 2008.

    Our next major project here, beyond Tuesday, should be replacing Kay Hagan in ’14. I nominate Renee Ellmers (US House, NC02). She’s had a stellar freshman term in the House and is set to earn another 2 years come Tuesday.

    Anyway, keep up the great and hard work Patriot!

    Comment by HerbieBeasley — November 2, 2012 @ 3:29 pm - November 2, 2012

  4. Roberto: Regarding Todd Akin. I live in Missouri. The state’s two largest newspapers, The Kansas City Star and the St. Louis Post Dispatch, have endorsed Obama. In spite of their endorsements, the KC Star released a poll last week showing Romney up by 13%, well outside the margin of error. If Romney wins by anywhere close to 13%, I would imagine Todd Akin will ride his coattails to a win as well. It’s also worth noting that John Ashcroft is now doing robocalls on Akin’s behalf. You may recall that he was one of the former Missouri Republican Senators who had asked him to step down after his comments about rape and pregnancy that went viral globally if not inter-galactically. As Aschcroft says in the robocall, a vote for Akin is a vote to repeal Obamacare. Ashcroft can read the polls, so he knows that Obamacare remains hated here. People may be disgusted with Akin’s remarks but still vote for him just to get rid of Obamacare.

    That said, I used to say that Missouri suffers from political schizophrenia because we were the quintessential “purple” state. In 2008, we elected a Democratic Governor and a Republican Lt. Governor. Of our nine congressional districts, 5 were won by Republicans and 4 by Democrats (the Dems lost two seats in the 2010 shellacking and the state legislature is now overwhelmingly Republican – so maybe we are now firmly a red state). So given our history of political schizophrenia, I suppose it is possible that Romney will win by a landslide and yet McCaskill can still win re-election. But no way would I make that bet.

    Comment by Scott — November 2, 2012 @ 4:20 pm - November 2, 2012

  5. They say democracy is more developed in China because you know who the winner is the day before the election. Guess that’s true about North Carolina, too.

    Comment by Mitch — November 2, 2012 @ 10:44 pm - November 2, 2012

  6. […] RasmussenBarone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily: Exam25,000 vs. 4,000 in Ohio: GWPElection Bulletin: North Carolina: GayPatriotAnti-Mourdock polling games in Indiana?: LIEconomyNYC Residents Rage as Generators Power […]

    Pingback by Larwyn’s Linx: The President, the State Department and Benghazi | Preppers Universe — November 3, 2012 @ 1:01 pm - November 3, 2012

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